TJ Smith Stakes Tips: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the TJ Smith Stakes?
How can history help us sort out our TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) tips at Randwick on Saturday?
One of four Group 1 races on Day One of The Championships, the T.J.Smith Stakes (1200m) is a race that has grown in stature in recent years, due partly to the fact that is has had a significant boost in prize money, while it gained Group 1 status in 2005.
The TJ is normally worth $2.5 million (it is $1.25 million in 2020). Since the boost in prizemoney it has been taken out by some very familiar names in Apache Cat (2008), Takeover Target (2009) and Black Caviar (2011 and 2013). Let’s not also forget Chautauqua’s barnstorming efforts to claim the event in 2015, 2016 and 2017.
So, who will be the next horse to make a name for themselves in the T.J Smith Stakes? In analysing the trends of the race since it became a Group 1 in 2005, there are a number of things to consider when it comes to finalising your TJ Smith Stakes tips.
Nature Strip, Bivouac and Santa Ana Lane are vying for favouritism in early markets with sportsbet. Nature Strip has been installed as a $4.50 chance after the barrier draw ahead of the other two at $5. Loving Gaby is at $6, while Pierata is at $7. Exceedance heads the rest of the 13 runners at the $13 quote.
The average price of the winning horses in this race since it became a Group 1 has been a healthy $8.80, meaning that things haven’t always gone the way of the favoured runners. That figure has been compressed somewhat due to the fact that Black Caviar won the race on two occasions, while the average field size has been a tick under 10 runners.
Black Caviar won twice at the odds of $1.14, while the two other favourites to win in the past 11 years were Lankan Rupee, who scored at $3.75 in 2014, while Apache Cat was a $2.25 winner in 2008. Amazingly, Chautauqua never started as favourite in this race. He scored as a $4 chance in 2015 (Terravista was $2.65), $3.50 in 2016 (Exosphere was $3.00) and at $5.50 in 2017 (Russian Revolution was $3.50).
At the opposite end of the scale, Master Of Design triumphed as a $31 chance in 2012, while Shamekha won at the odds of $26 in 2005. A feature of this year’s field is that there are four horses aged three-years-old. Three of those in Bivouac, Loving Gaby and Exceedance are rated as key chances, while Standout is a $34 shot. Trapeze Artist and Melito are the three-year-olds that have won since 2005.
The most successful age group have been the six-year-olds with five winners. Four winners have been aged four. This year, White Moss is the only six-year-old, while Vegadaze and Tofane are aged four. Tofane and White Moss are among three mares in the race this year alongside In Her Time. Loving Gaby is the sole filly in the race. The girls have a good record in the T.J with four mares claiming it since 2005. That stat includes Melito, who won as a filly in 2010.
The Hawkes stable, who claimed the race three times with Chautauqua, have Exceedance in the race this year. Another successful training combination is the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott team.
However, that stable do not have a runner this year. Gerald Ryan won the race with Melito in 2010 and Trapeze Artist in 2018 and has Standout this year.
Anthony Freedman will be going for back to back wins with Santa Ana Lane. This is one race that has eluded Chris Waller and the leading trainer has Nature Strip this year. A key form reference towards the TJ Smith is the Newmarket Handicap and four of the past six winners have come out of the Flemington straight race.
This year, the Newmarket was taken out by Bivouac from Loving Gaby. That pair have since run in the William Reid Stakes (1200m) with Loving Gaby taking out the Moonee Valley Group 1 from Gytrash, while Bivouac ran 3rd.
Seven of the past nine winners had their last start over 1200m. In 2018, Trapeze Artist was dropping down in trip after running 3rd in the Randwick Guineas. Another key lead up to this year’s edition is the Challenge Stakes (1000m) that was taken out by Nature Strip. No winners of the TJ Smith since 2005 have come out of that race.
The most successful barrier to jump from has been barrier 8, providing three winners. Tofane has drawn that spot this year. Other successful spots have been 1, 4, 5, 7, and 11 with each of those numbers providing two winners.
TJ Smith Stakes tips according to trends
Loving Gaby can get the job done.