Toorak Handicap Tips & Preview

Toorak Handicap Tips

Toorak Handicap Tips, Prediction & Preview

Looking for 2022 Toorak Handicap tips? Our form expert will preview the Caulfield Group 1 and give their top predictions closer to the race date. Below is our assessment of last year’s tips & preview.

 

The Toorak Handicap sees some quality milers in action, and it is the exciting Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr-trained I’m Thunderstruck ($2.80 with Sportsbet) that heads the market after the barrier draw.

The four-year-old gets in on the minimum weight of the 52kg and has drawn much better than his recent Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) outing on September 18 when running home from the tail to grab 3rd behind Sierra Sue, who is at $12 for the Toorak

Four runners come out of the Rupert Clarke Stakes with the winner, Sierra Sue, attempting to do the double. Dice Roll ($10) will be out to go one better after finishing runner-up, while Irish Flame has another crack after running 12th.

In the Rupert Clarke, Sierra Sue was wide throughout before pipping Dice Roll, who looked the winner at the 100m mark. I’m Thunderstruck was back and copped a decent bump at the top of the straight but managed to reel off the fastest late splits.

He meets the winner 3.5kg better at the weights and has drawn much more favourably this time around. It should also be noted that he was fresh off an a seven-week break in the Rupert Clarke Stakes and should be open to improvement. The favouritism tag is justified.

Sierra Sue and Dice Roll went 13.6 lengths faster than standard, which are the best last start figures of any runner.

Three runners come out of the Sandown Stakes, including Elephant, who is the $5.50 second elect for the Toorak. The Kiwi galloper tasted defeat for the first time in the Feehan Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley two starts back before going 10 lengths faster than standard at Sandown. He has drawn well and was too good for the likes of Harbour Views ($34) that day.

Tofane ($9.50) carries top weight and will be out to join More Joyous as a mare to carry 58kg to victory in this race. She was out kicked by the new star of the turf, Incentivise, in the Maybe Diva Stakes (1600m), running 4th at Flemington. She meets some slightly inferior types here but will have to do it with the weight. At Flemington she went 11.2 lengths faster than standard.

The multiple Group 1 winner boasts the best figures that any horse in this race has produce in the past two years, but they came over the 1100m. I’m Thunderstruck boasts the second best figures of any horse in the past two years when going 14.9 lengths faster than standard, romping home by four lengths at Flemington on July 17.

Superstorm ($11) has form around Elephant and defeated that horse in the Feehan Stakes. He drops back in trip after running 3rd in the Underwood Stakes (1800m) behind Zaaki. Mr Quickie followed that path when winning the Toorak last year. Superstorm was caught a bit wide in the Underwood but stuck on well.

Another lead up to look at is the Stocks Stakes (1600m) that was taken out by So You Assume. She led them up at an even tempo in front, at Moonee Valley while Quantum Mechanic ran 3rd. Suspect that pair might have to pull off a peak performance to trouble the likes of I’m Thunderstruck.

How can history help find us a winner in the Toorak Handicap?

The Rupert Clarke Stakes has been the form reference for the Toorak and six of the previous nine Toorak winners come out of the 1400m Group 1. Trust In A Gust did the double in 2014, while three others were placed. Interestingly, last year’s winner, Mr Quickie, was dropping back from the 1800m of the Underwood Stakes.

Mr Quickie saluted at $21 last year and Fierce Impact at $18 the year before. However, the previous nine winners paid $10 or below. Four favourites have saluted in the past eight years. Three of the past four winners have come from double digit barriers. Only two horses aged four have won the Toorak in the past 10 years.

Who will win the 2021 Toorak Handicap?

I expect the Rupert Clarke form to be the superior reference here and I’m Thunderstruck is the obvious one to back. Jye McNeil should be able to find a spot in the front half this time around and if the son of Shocking can settle well, he will be very hard to beat at the business end. Best Value in the race is Superstorm.

He comes into this fourth-up and improved four lengths on figures at this stage last year when dropping from the 2000m to run 3rd in this race, going 13.5 lengths faster than standard. I expect him to be fighting out the finish with any clear air in the straight.

Toorak Handicap Tips

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