Underwood Stakes Tips & Preview
Looking for Underwood Stakes Tips on Saturday, September 25? Our form expert previews the Caulfield Group 1 and gives his best bets for the race.
Underwood Stakes Preview
A total of 10 runners compete for $750,000 in Saturday’s Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield.
Race favourite Russian Camelot comes of a 2nd placing in the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) and is joined by three other Makybe Diva Stakes runners in So Si Bon (3rd), Levendi (11th) and Gailo Chop (13th).
Humidor and Harbour Views come off 1st and 3rd placings in the Feehan Stakes (1600m), and The Chosen One is also a last start winner having claimed a 1700m win at Flemington.
Mr Quickie was runner-up to Behemoth in the Memsie Stakes (1400m) last start and that form has been franked with Behemoth winning the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.
Arcadia Queen was runner-up to Pretty Brazen in the Lets Elope Stakes (1400m) and that form has also been franked with Pretty Brazen finishing 3rd to Behemoth in the Sir Rupert Clarke.
Last but not least, Trap For Fools resumes from a spell and was 7th in this race last year behind Black Heart Bart.
How does the $2 favourite stack up?
Russian Camelot couldn’t have been more impressive last start when travelling three and four wide without cover over an unsuitably short trip as he battled strongly to be narrowly beaten by Fierce Impact.
He may be well above average and crush Saturday’s field, but a couple of things concern me, and I think he’s way too short in the market.
That run may have taken a lot out of him, and considering he decreased his benchmark (BM) performance rating second-up last campaign, I’m not sure he can reach the figure needed to win on Saturday.
He went 8.1 lengths quicker than BM first-up last campaign and then went 1.6 lengths slower than BM when winning second-up before producing a career best rating of 8.9 lengths quicker than BM in the SA Derby (2500m).
Russian Camelot went 8.0 lengths quicker than standard first-up this campaign, and his three best BM performances to date rank as the second lowest of the 10 Underwood Stakes runners.
There is nothing in his data to suggest he can significantly improve second-up on Saturday, and his favouritism is based solely on his Makybe Diva Stakes run which didn’t rate that high as far as Group 1s go.
Who are the dangers?
In comparison to Russian Camelot, Mr Quickie went 12.9 lengths quicker than BM when first-up in the Memsie Stakes and he has a PB of 15.9 lengths above standard.
So Si Bon holds the strongest PB of 17.1 lengths quicker than BM, but that is over 1400m, and his best efforts have been over 1400m to 1600m.
Humidor bounced back to winning form last start and he ran the mighty mare Winx to one of her hardest earned victories in the Cox Plate so he cannot be underestimated.
Neither can Harbour Views who just needs things to go his way to show what he’s really capable of.
Who will win the Underwood Stakes in 2021?
Arcadia Queen rated on par with Russian Camelot having gone 8.4 lengths quicker than standard when she flew home from the rear last start.
She has a PB of 16.6 lengths quicker than BM which happens to be over 1800m when she won the Kingston Town Classic by 4.5 lengths.
That was her first and only time stepping up to 1800m as she came off a performance that rated eight lengths above standard BM.
With two runs under her belt now, she steps back up to 1800m and looks set to unleash an almighty run from the rear.
The speed should be better than genuine with Trap For Fools and Gailo Shop leading the way, and as others start to chase early, Arcadia Queen should get a nice suck into the race and can finish best over the concluding stage.