Victoria Derby Tips & Preview
Looking for Victoria Derby Tips at Flemington on Saturday? Our form analyst previews the three-year-old staying feature and gives his best bets and predictions.
Victoria Derby Preview
A total of 14 three-year-old colts and geldings line up in what will be a gruelling test of stamina over 2500m at Flemington.
Three last start winners line up in the $2 million event and the race favourite, Young Werther, is the least experienced having had just two starts for a win and a 2nd.
A Test of Stamina
This year’s Victoria Derby signals a possible changing of the guard in Australian racing with local trainers saddling up some genuine stayers of the future.
There has been so much focus on speed in Australia that we have become less competitive in our most famous race, the Melbourne Cup.
Each year, when assessing Derby and Oaks fields in each state, we generally find a few horses with some powerful staying blood, but the rest are more brilliant than stamina based.
In 2020 however, the Victoria Derby is packed full of three-year-old colts and geldings that were genuinely bred to stay.
And we may see quite a few of these youngsters lining up in Caulfield Cups and Melbourne Cups in the next couple of years.
Who is best suited on breeding?
As mentioned earlier, most of this year’s entrants have some true staying blood, so it’s probably easier to highlight those who don’t and may struggle if the race is run at a decent speed and made into a genuine staying test.
Those who may lack stamina include: Cherry Tortoni, Redwood Shadow, Tour Of Duty, Token Spirit, Born To Succeed and Kenzan.
Who has the strongest form?
When it comes to last start performance, Cherry Tortoni and Young Werther are clear standouts having gone 6.4 and 5.8 lengths quicker than standard BM respectively last start.
Cherry Tortoni recorded that figure last Saturday when defeating Khoekhoe in the Vase (2040m) at The Valley, and Young Werther’s figure was recorded when 2nd to Khoekhoe – so the form lines up well.
I simply don’t’ like the Geelong Classic (2200m) form as they went slow to even early, and the finals sectionals were all below BM.
The Neds Classic (2000m) may not have rated high, but they went slow early, and runners came home between four and five lengths quicker than standard, so this form should stand up.
Who will win the Victoria Derby in 2020?
Without a doubt, Hit The Shot was visually most impressive as he charged home from the rear clocking the quickest final 600m, 400m and 200m.
Trained by Matt Cumani, the son of Dundeel is out of the Redoute’s Choice mare Tang, and Redoute’s Choice mares are prolific producers of Derby and Oaks winners.
Hit The Shot was arguably the most unlucky runner at Flemington in the Victoria Derby Trial (1800m) where he just couldn’t find a clear path and finished a length from Cetshwayo.
Considering there is more stamina that usual in this year’s Derby, I’m expecting the pressure to go on a long way from home as riders try and outstay each other.
That will suit Hit The Shot who should be back at the rear waiting for it all to unfold before letting rip down the outside of the long Flemington straight.
Albarado and Young Werther look hardest to beat.