Vinery Stud Stakes Tips: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the Vinery Stud Stakes?
The Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) is one of two Group 1 races at Rosehill on Saturday March 28 and is a $500,000 affair for the three-year-old fillies.
A key lead up to the Australian Oaks (2400m), the Vinery Stud has been won by the likes of Miss Finland (2007) and Champagne (1998) over the years, while last year, it was Verry Elleegant that claimed the event.
In analysing the trends of the race since the year 2000, there are a number of things for you to consider when it comes to picking a winner. Winners have come from a variety of lead up races with three of the past seven stepping up from the 1500m of the Coolmore Classic (1500m), while the past two winners, Hiyaam and Verry Elleegant, stepped up from the 1500m of the Phar Lap Stakes. Hiyaam, was 3rd in that in 2018, while Verry Elleegant won both the Phar Lap Stakes (1500m) and the Vinery Stud.
This year, Funstar won the Phar Lap Stakes, while Probabeel finished runner-up. Those two dominate the market this year. Funstar is at $1.75, while Probabeel is at $4.40. Subponead is at $12, while Missle Mantra and Funstar are at $18. Asiago heads the rest at $20.
Asiago claimed another key lead up to this race, the Kembla Grange Classic (1600m). The Godolphin galloper finished ahead of the Waterhouse and Bott-trained Shout The Bar. Missile Mantra was 4th, while Subponead closed off well for 5th in that race. Seven of the field of 13 featured at Kembla last time. 12 of the 20 winners since 2000 had their previous run in NSW, including two at Kembla Grange, while the rest of those were in Sydney. Six had their previous start in Melbourne.
Two of this year’s runners had their most recent start in Melbourne. They were Fascino, who finished 3rd in the Group 2 Kewney Stakes (1400m) at Flemington, while Contrition faces a big class rise after finishing 7th in a BenchMark 70 at Moonee Valley.
For fans of Funstar, it should be noted that nine of 20 favourites have won the race since 2000. Five of those have started at ‘odds on’. No favourites that have started at $2 or below have been rolled. Mosheen (2012), Miss Finland (2007), Serenade Rose (2006), Special Harmony (2004) and Hill Of Grace (2000) are that quintet.
Verry Elleegant scored at $2.05 in 2019, breaking a bit of a run of outs for the favourites. Prior to last year, 2013 was the last time a popular elect won and that horse was Norzita, who scored as a $3 chance in 2013. Mosheen landed as a $1.57 pop the year before. Roughies were the order of the day from 2014 to 2018.
Fenway won at the odds of $21 in 2015, while in 2011, Mirjulisa Lass won at $51. The average price of the winning horses since 2000 has been $8.90
Interestingly, it has not been a disadvantage to have drawn in the second half of the field in this race as nine of the 20 winners have drawn out. Six have come from double digit barriers. Eight have drawn between barriers 1 to 3.
This year, Nudge, Aspect Ratio and Game Of Thorns have drawn those barriers. Funstar has drawn barrier 8, while Probabeel will jump from barrier 6. Successful trainers in the Vinery Stud since 2000 include Lee Freedman, Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings with two winners apiece. Of that trio, Waterhouse has Shout The Bar in the race.
Cummings’ grandson, James, saddles up Asiago. Chris Waller took out his first Vinery Stud in 2019 and will be going for back to back wins with either Funstar, Subponead or Nudge. Of the jockeys, James McDonald is the reigning winner, while Hugh Bowman won the Vinery Stud Stakes in 2012 and 2013. This year, McDonald rides Funstar, while Bowman is on Asiago.
Selection according to trends
On trends, Funstar will be hard to beat and is a deserved favourite. Roughie backers should not discount the Kembla Grange form and Asiago ticks some boxes.