William Reid Stakes Tips and Preview

Aaron Hamilton in William Reid Stakes 18 Mar 2020
William Reid Stakes Tips

Looking for William Reid Stakes Tips? Our form analyst previews the Group 1 sprint at The Valley and gives his top selection for the race.

WILLIAM REID STAKES PREVIEW

I think Bivouac is the best sprinter in Friday night’s William Reid Stakes (1200m) at The Valley but gee he looks under the odds from the inside gate.

I tipped him in the Manikato Stakes last campaign where he arguably should have won with clear running.

He got buried three pairs back along the rail and simply had nowhere to go when they straightened as Loving Gabby got a run and shot to victory.

Bivouac literally smashed Loving Gabby and co last start in the Newmarket Handicap, and if this race was down the Flemington straight, I’d have him clearly on top.

However, the son of Exceed And Excel has drawn the inside gate again and I can’t see him being in a better position than the Manikato.

Some argued he should have gone forward in the Manikato, but the fact is, he went 8.3 lengths quicker than standard BM to the 600m which is the quickest he’s ever gone early.

For that reason, I can’t see him being any closer than three pairs back on the fence again, and it will take a piece of riding genius from Hugh Bowman to get him clear and first past the post.

VERDICT & BEST BET

Pippie went very, very fast early in the Oakleigh Plate when winning last start, and with likely upside, she’s the one I want to be on here.

The daughter of Written Tycoon went a sizzling 12.2 lengths quicker than BM to the 600m, and if she goes that quick again, nothing will match her early speed.

Despite being first-up and going so quick early, as well as appearing to tire late, Pippie still went 3.3 lengths quicker than BM for her final 600m and recorded an overall figure of 15.5 lengths quicker than BM which is the highest last start figure in the William Reid.

Pippie went 3.1 lengths quicker than BM on debut and then went 8.1 lengths quicker when second-up at The Valley.

Last campaign, she again went 3.1 lengths quicker first-up before going 13.1 lengths quicker when winning second-up at Caulfield.

So, we know she improves with a run under the belt, and if she can improve second-up this time, she’ll prove incredibly hard to beat.

Only Scales Of Justice and Mystic Journey have bettered that rating when going 18.3 and 16.5 lengths quicker than BM when winning the Memsie Stakes (1400m) and Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) respectively.

A 1200m sprint at The Valley is closer to an 1100m race at Caulfield rather than a 1400m or 1600m event, so, I’m putting more weight behind Pippie’s peak performance.

If she improves second-up as she’s done in the past, she potentially goes past Mystic Journey’s PB while also coming close to Scales Of Justice’s best.

Pippie also has to carry 4.5kg more on Friday night but I’m not putting a great emphasis on weight in a sprint.

Scales Of Justice looks like getting the gun run right behind the speed here and he could be the one to challenge late.

And of course, if Bivouac does get clear with a gem of a ride, could make them all look silly.

It makes sense to take luck out of the equation here and go for a mare that is in Group 1-winning form and is likely to improve second-up.

William Reid Stakes Tips:

Prediction
Pippie $13 Bet now!