William Reid Stakes Tips: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the William Reid Stakes?
The William Reid Stakes (1200m) is the final Group 1 race in Melbourne until the spring and has been taken out by some champion gallopers in the past including Black Caviar and Manikato.
Black Caviar toyed with her opposition as a $1.09 favourite in 2011 before doing the same in front of a large crowd in 2013 at the bank interest odds of $1.05. Manikato achieved the remarkable feat of winning the race five times in a row in a period spanning from 1979 through to 1983.
The $500,000 event was once raced in January and was known as the Australia Stakes until a switch of dates in 2010 saw the Australia Stakes become the William Reid Stakes, while the Carlyon Stakes (1200m) was rebranded as the Australia Stakes. Following Black Caviar’s memorable achievements, the recent winners have been Spirit Of Boom, Lucky Hussler, Flamberge, Silent Sedition, Hellbent and Sunlight.
In analysing the trends of the William Reid Stakes since the year 2000, there are a few things to consider when it comes to picking a winner. Short priced favourites that have won the race also include Sunlight at $1.70 last year as well as Apache Cat, who won as a $2.10 fancy in 2009, while Miss Andretti scored at $1.53 in 2008.
There have been five horses that have won at odds of $10 and above and they include three of the past five winners. Hellbent won at $10 in 2018, while Flamberge (2016) and Lucky Hussler (2015) scored at $12. Toledo won as a $31 chance in 2002. The average price of the winners since 2000 has been $7.40
This year, the market with sportsbet sees Bivouac installed as a $2.40 favourite, while Loving Gaby is at $5. Exceedance is at $7.50, while Scales Of Justice is at $9. The Lightning Stakes (1000m) winner. Gytrash, head the rest at $11.
Bivouac, Loving Gaby and Exceedance will be aiming to join Sunlight as one of six three-year-olds to have won the race since 2000.
The three-year-olds have been the most successful age group in the race since 2000 as well as the five-year-olds, who also have six winners. But there are no horses aged five in the race this year. The last three William Reid winners have drawn wide. But since 2000, seven winners have come from either barrier 1 or barrier 2.
This year, Bivouac and Zoutori occupy the first two slots. The ideal lead up form to this race in recent years has been one of the big three Melbourne autumn sprints, the Newmarket Handicap (1200m), Oakleigh Plate (1100m) or the Lightning Stakes (1000m).
12 of the past 15 winners have had their last run in one of those races. Sunlight took out the Newmarket last year. This year, Bivouac comes off a Newmarket win ahead of Loving Gaby and Gytrash. Zoutori was 4th. That followed a runner-up performance in the Oakleigh Plate behind Pippie, who has had four weeks in between runs. Hellbent and Flamberge are recent winners to come out of the Oakleigh Plate.
17 of the past 20 winners of the William Reid finished in the top three at their previous start. Eight were last start winners. Seven of this years field of 11 were in the top three at their last start. Pippie and Bivouac are recent winners.
An interesting stat is that fillies and mares have fared very well in this race, winning it on eight occasions since 2000 despite being underrepresented. Mystic Journey, and Pippie are the this year. Loving Gaby is a filly.
Selections based on trends:
On trends, it is really hard to split Bivouac and Loving Gaby. The school of thought suggests that Bivouac will find it hard from the inside gate. But history suggests this is on his side. The colt just gets the nod over the filly.