Winterbottom Stakes Winning Trends
The Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) is the premier sprint race in Western Australia and we take a look at the Winterbottom Stakes winning trends.
The $1 million affair is always one of the major highlights of the Perth Carnival and has been won in the past by star performers such as Takeover Target in 2008 and Miss Andretti in 2005.
Recent winners include the popular galloper, Buffering, who scored in 2013 and 2015, while Voodoo Lad and Hey Doc have taken out the past two runnings of the race.
When picking a winner for the Group 1 there are a few things to consider. If we take a look back at the Winterbottom Stakes winning trends since the year 2000, it has generally been a good race favourite backers with nine of the 20 popular elects since 2000 being able to score, while a further seven gallopers won in single figure odds. However, the past two winners have won at $13. Trekking and Viddora (in 2018) both missed out at the $2.90 quote.
Hadabeclorka ($41 in 2010) and Belmont Park ($16 in 2003) are others that have caused upsets. The average price of the winners since 2000 is $7.90. Early markets with NEDS this year sees Trekking as the standout horse at the $2.20 quote ahead of Indian Pacific at $7.50, while Celebrity Queen ($9) is the only other runner below double figures. Stageman ($11) and Valour Road ($14) head the rest.
The Winterbottom usually sees many gallopers heading out west from the eastern states and since 2000 it is the visitors with the slight advantage, winning 11 times, while locals have won nine. The past five winners have come from interstate.
Hey Doc was 3rd at Sandown last year over the 1300m, while Voodoo Lad and Viddora (2017) were coming off unplaced efforts in the Manikato Stakes (1200m) before they won the Winterbottom Stakes. However, this year, only Trekking comes from interstate as there are restrictions on connections being allowed to travel over to Perth due to Covid19.
Trekking comes off a runner-up effort in the Manikato Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley. Interestlngly, only seven of the past 20 winners came into the Winterbottom after winning at their previous start. Elite Street and Celebrity Queen are the only last start winners in the field this year.
With the absence of the usual amount of interstate runners, we might see the first local winner since Magnifisio in 2014. Others include Marasco (2006) and Hardrada (2002/2003). Miss Andretti scored as a ‘local’ in 2005 before she was subsequently sent to the Lee Freedman stable in Victoria. 11 of the past 20 winners have had their final lead up run in Perth, however, six of the past eight winners had their last start at Melbourne.
The key Perth lead up race is the Colonel Reeves (1100m). Celebrity Queen claimed that this year ahead of Stageman, while Indian Pacific was 3rd. Barakee and Hadabeclorka came out of that race when they won the Winterbottom.
At the barrier draw, Trekking fared poorly and will jump from barrier 11, while Celebrity Queen has drawn barrier 10. The good news for fans of those horses is that seven of the past eight winners have won despite drawing in the second half of the field. Four winners have drawn 13 since 2000, two have drawn barrier 5, while barrier 8 has provided five winners, including three of the past seven. Essential Spice might jump from barrier 13 this year after the early scratching of Carocapo.
The most successful age group in the Winterbottom Stakes has been the four and five-year-olds, accounting for 12 of the 20 winners since 2000. Horses aged four this year are Red Can Man, Laverod, Indian Pacific, Elite Street and Celebrity Queen while Valour Road, Mankind, Flirtini and Essential Spice are five. Elite Street, Flirtini, Essential Spice and Celebrity Queen are the mares. The girls have a fair record, having won this race on six occasions since 2000.
Selection based on the Winterbottom Stakes winning trends since 2000.
Trekking can continue the dominance of interstate horses and while favourites have missed out the last couple of years, they have fared well when you look at a long erm perspective.