Hong Kong Vase Tips & Betting Odds

Hong Kong Vase Tips

Looking for Hong Kong Vase 2020 tips and betting odds? Our Hong Kong racing expert previews the Sha Tin Group 1 staying contest and gives his predictions.

Hong Kong Vase Odds 2020


All In Odds courtesy of bet365 and correct from 12:00pm December 9, 2020. Please Bet Responsibly. Over 18s only. Problem? Visit Gambling Help Online

Hong Kong Vase Tips & Preview

Just a field of seven will contest this year’s Group 1 Vase to be run at Sha Tin on Sunday.

Five of the contenders here have all come through the Group 1 Jockey Club Cup (2000m) run at Sha Tin on 22 November.

That leaves just two other runners who are both visiting Internationals.

The British representative is the Aidan O’Brien-trained Mogul who came through the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland in America along with stablemate Magical.

That leaves the Irish galloper, Royal Julius who is coming off an unplaced finish in the Group 2 Premio Roma (2012m) run in Rome last month.


Who has the strongest form?

The strongest form (overall) appears to lie with the local contingent who came through the Jockey Club (JC) Cup last month.

Exultant was second-up that day and despite running out the 2000m more than 10 lengths quicker than benchmark, still had to settle for second prize behind Furore (who is second elect in the Hong Kong Cup).

Exultant’s history however, shows that he improves when third-up. Last preparation, when he was third-up, he peaked in this race last year when finishing third behind Glory Vase where he covered the trip 12.9 lengths quicker than benchmark, a three-length improvement on his first-up run.

Last start he was second-up in the JC Cup and ran out the 2000m 10.3 lengths quicker than benchmark. Should history repeat itself, he will prove hard to run down in this event.

Columbus County finish just behind Exultant in the JC Cup and he ran the trip 9.5 lengths quicker than benchmark.

His third-up history suggests he will run this out in similar fashion, but he meets Exultant 2kgs worse this time and has never run beyond 2000m.

We have no fine details for Mogul but must consider not only his unplaced finish in the Group 1 Breeders’ Plate but consider his start just prior to that.

He took out the Group 1 G.P De Paris (2400m) at Longchamp, winning that by 2.5 lengths, running out the trip in 2:24.7 and in this event, drops 3kgs from the 58.5 he carried that day.

Exultant’s best time for the 2400m trip is 2:25.9 set back in May 2018 and since then, has broken 2:26 for the journey.


Who will win the Hong Kong Vase in 2020?

A lot will depend on how Mogul has travelled and how he has pulled up from his world tour. Since August, he has raced in England, France, America and will now line up in Hong Kong on Sunday.

This puts a lot of strain on horses, in particular when they are racing over distances.

If he has come out of all that travel in good shape, then he becomes more than just a threat here.

Columbus County has been quite consistent in his 12 career starts, and finishing third in Group 2 company last start is a prime example where he came from last that day and hit the line well.

But he has a couple of hurdles to overcome here, namely carrying more weight and not running beyond 2000m before this.

It all comes back to the local champ, Exultant, and if he can keep his third-up efforts going.

He couldn’t match it with Furore in the JC Cup, but third-up here and better drawn, he looks the one they all have to beat.



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