Adelaide Cup Tips & Preview
Adelaide Cup Tips & Preview
Looking for Adelaide Cup tips at Morphettville on Monday? SA form expert Craig Lewis previews the 2021 Adelaide Cup and gives his top selections.
Following the initial scratching of Double You Tee, the 2021 Adelaide Cup field will currently expect 16 runners to compete.
Betting patterns since the turn of the century shows us that of the 21 Cup winners, 38.1% Started as Favorite. Actually, 38.1% also paid double figures too. The only other line of betting to win were the second favs, taking up 23.8% of the pie chart. This means that the first and second lines of Cup betting dominate the winners list at 61.9%.
The shortest priced winner of the Adelaide Cup is King Of Leogrance, who won last year paying $2.20. Pantani (2004) and Norsqui (2013) share the honors as longest priced winners at $26.
Only one standalone top-weight has saluted in that time, with Gallic carrying 58kg in the first edition of the Cup’s relegation to G2 in 2007. Gallic then went on to repeat his last stride Adelaide win in the Sydney Cup of the same year.
While horses have been able to win from nearly any starting gate, 68.75% of the winners have come from barriers 1-8. The inside half of today’s field is where we will be concentrating our search.
Adelaide Cup Form & Class Factors
In terms of class, we look to the handicapper where the current Handicap Benchmark system has been in place since 2006. Of the 15 winners since then, only 4 winners carried a BM Handicap rating of below 90. The lowest of which was Surprise Baby, who with a BM77 rating, was very early into his career.
Vital Form Factors such as last start winners/placegetters aren’t a big help here. Only three Cup winners had won at their most recent start, 11 (50%) had placed 3rd or higher. Of the other 50%, well, only two Cup winners had finished worse than 5th at their previous race start.
Other Vital Form Factors show us that 17 of the 21 winners had their most recent race start at over 2400m or more. Nine of which were Listed grade at Launceston, Flemington or Mooney Valley. Seven Cup winners came through the traditional SA lead-up race, the G3 Lord Reims Stakes. In total, 16 of our 21 Cup winners had come through black type at 2400m and beyond as their main lead-up run.
So, what does all this mean? Well for a start we want to see strong recent form. We’re also on the hunt for horses high up in the handicap ratings, without having to lump top-weight. We would also like to be drawn to the inside half of the field for an economical run.
Adelaide Cup Tips Best Bet & Best Value
TRALEE ROSE wrote herself into the SA Black Book with a slashing run in the 2020 G3 SA Fillies Classic won by Realm Of Flowers. This was only her fourth race start and we thought she might come up as a Caulfield Cup horse of that Spring. Instead, trainer Symon Wilde gave her that extra time to grow into herself and Tralee Rose has responded. She’s Ideally drawn in 4 while tasked with 55.5kg’s under Adelaide Cup winning jockey, Jason Holder. As a BM96 rated horse, she profiles with the class needed to win an Adelaide Cup. Recently bolted in both the Listed Bagot Hcp (2800m) at Flemington and also G3 Lord Reims (2600m) at Morphettville. She’s got the major lead-ups covered and it’s little wonder Tralee Rose has opened at odds-on for Monday!
SIN TO WIN also rates highly with a BM90 Handicap rating while carrying 55.5kg’s. He met Tralee Rose straight off a 7-week let-up following his forget run in the Sandown Cup. Monday’s fav dealt with him easily enough on that occasion, though Sin To Win has room to improve on that. A further 8-week let-up preceded his second-placing to Monday’s top-weight, MOSH MUSIC in the Listed Bagot Quality. Now coming off a 7-day break, Sin To Win is ideally drawn in 5 where jockey Daniel Stackhouse may elect to settle closer to midfield. Has the class with his peak yet to come, while beautifully weighted in-between the two mares up the top.