PB Lawrence Stakes Tips & Preview
Looking for PB Lawrence Stakes Tips? Our expert tipster previews the Caulfield feature and gives his best bets and predictions for Saturday, August 15.
HOW DO THE PB LAWRENCE STAKES FAVOURITES STACK UP?
Mystic Journey is the $4.20 favourite, won this race last year and has recorded the second strongest Benchmark (BM) figure of any runner.
She has a personal best of 16.5 lengths quicker than standard which she posted when second-up in the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington last campaign where she was runner-up to Gatting.
However, she generally needs her first-up run and she only went 4.6 lengths quicker than standard in this race last year which rates as her strongest first-up effort.
The race looks tougher this year and I think she’s under the odds.
Likewise, Arcadia Queen is second favourite at $4.80 and holds the strongest BM figure of 16.6 lengths quicker than standard.
She posted that figure when sixth-up in the Kingston Town Classic (1800m) where she defeated Material Man.
But unlike Mystic Journey, Arcadia Queen can sprint well fresh and went 11.8 quicker than standard when first-up in the Theo Marks (1300m) at Rosehill – which was her highest rating run from three starts last campaign.
WHO’S STRONGEST OF THE FIRST-UP BRIGADE?
Eight of the 11 runners are first-up from a spell, so it makes sense to see which runners can perform first-up and find out who has been trialling and jumping out well.
Regal Power has a first-up best of 5.7 lengths quicker than standard, and he’s being aimed at much bigger races so won’t be anywhere near his top for this – I’m willing to risk him.
It may surprise a few that Kings Will Dream is so effective first-up over 1400m, and his figures are outstanding.
In his last three first-up runs, he’s gone 10.0, 8.9 and 9.6 lengths quicker than standard, and the two strongest performances where at Caulfield over 1400m.
Last campaign he narrowly missed when first-up in the CF Orr Stakes (1400m) behind Alabama Express and Fierce Impact.
Fierce Impact had recorded back-to-back Group 1 wins in his previous campaign and went on from the CF Orr to finish 3rd in the Chipping Norton (1600m) and 4th in the All Star-Mile (1600m).
I rate that form highly and think Kings Will Dream is ideally drawn in gate 1 with only Savatiano, Streets Of Avalon and Sircconi likely to go ahead of him.
Cape Of Good Hope rates low over 1400m first-up, and while Cascadian has posted some strong figures and appreciates a Soft track, he maps to go back to last and will be spotting them a start which is not ideal at Caulfield.
Much like Kings Will Dream, Savatiano is ultra-consistent first-up going 8.5, 9.6 and 7.3 lengths above standard, but he has blinkers off for the first time and winkers on, and that gear change leaves room for improvement in his following starts.
Aristia is another that goes well fresh and she went 10 lengths quicker than standard when first-up over 1400m at Caulfield last campaign.
Her overall time of 1:22.18 is slightly stronger than Kings Will Dream who ran 1:22.26, but Aristia does carry 2kg extra on that effort.
WHO HAS RACE FITNESS?
Streets Of Avalon is second-up and will improve on his brilliant 2nd placing in the Bletchingly Stakes (1200m), while Sircconi and Morrissy are deep into their campaigns and rock-hard-fit.
I think Morrissy is outclassed, but Sircconi could surprise a few at big odds here.
He took out the Moonga Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on a Soft 6 and was 3rd behind Bam’s On Fire on a Soft 7 at the track and trip before than mare went to the Group 1 Robert Sangster (1200m) and finished 3rd.
Streets Of Avalon beat Sircconi by 4.5 lengths when they met at the track and trip last campaign on a Good track, but I think Sircconi gains and edge on the Soft rated surface.
WHO WILL WIN THE PB LAWRENCE STAKES IN 2020?
Mystic Journey has class but looks under the odds, and Arcadia Queen maps poorly and may need plenty of luck extricating from the inside three or four pairs back.
Regal Power and Aristia rate well but also map poorly and are likely to get back which is a problem with a lack of fitness not allowing them to make long sustained runs on the ben.
Streets Of Avalon can either take up the running or land on the outside of Savatiano which gives him a great chance of using the extra fitness he has and outgunning them.
However, he rates much lower on rain-affected ground and that is a concern.
Sirconni’s last two runs have rated 14.6 and 11.4 lengths quicker than standard, and he carried 62kg last start and now has the luxury of dropping back to 59kg and dropping back to 1400m.
I can see Kings Will Dream and Sircconi landing right behind the speed and getting the run of the race, and the pair represent great value at $13 & $26 respectively.
EXPLORE: Caulfield Best Bets for August 15