Overview
Shapenapit is the only horse on Saturday’s Bendigo card with a win at the track. Three starts here have produced that win and another top three finish, and he arrives in the Bm62 having won once and filled a place in two of his other three runs since mid July. That’s the anchor for these Bendigo racing tips, and it’s the race I’d build the day around.
The rest of the card asks harder questions. Seven races on a Good turf track, the first jumping at 1:44PM and the last at 5:31PM, with three maidens up front and four handicaps behind them, all between 1000m and 1600m. The maidens carry a pile of scratchings and very little exposed form, so expect a couple of small stakes calls early. From Race 4 on the picture sharpens: a bottom weight dropping a long way in the weights, a horse with three straight seconds, and a 1600m finale where the weights look decisive.
Bendigo racing tips: how the track sets up
Limited course form across today’s fields. Most runners with any Bendigo history have one or two starts here. Savethebesttillast has the most visits at four, for a single placing, and Shapenapit is the only horse with three or more runs that has actually won at the track.
The riders give us more to work with. Patrick Moloney has the most wins among today’s jockeys and hits the frame at better than four in ten, R J Hurdle matches that place rate from a smaller book, and B Rawiller keeps finishing in the first three without the win to show for it.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Moloney | 21 | 3 | 9 | 14.3 | 42.9 |
| R J Hurdle | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14.3 | 42.9 |
| B Rawiller | 24 | 0 | 9 | 0.0 | 37.5 |
| MS L J Meech | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12.5 | 37.5 |
| Jackson Radley | 20 | 2 | 7 | 10.0 | 35.0 |
| Neil Farley | 22 | 2 | 6 | 9.1 | 27.3 |
| Caitlin Hollowood | 9 | 2 | 2 | 22.2 | 22.2 |
| Damien Thornton | 20 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 20.0 |
On the training side, C Maher and the Hayes stable bring the volume, with eight winners apiece from 51 and 44 runners respectively. Henry Dwyer is the oddity: half his Bendigo runners have placed, none have won. M M Laurie had the best strike rate of anyone booked, but both Laurie runners are scratched.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Dwyer | 10 | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 50.0 |
| C Maher | 51 | 8 | 24 | 15.7 | 47.1 |
| Ben, Will & JD Hayes | 44 | 8 | 20 | 18.2 | 45.5 |
| Jason Warren | 11 | 2 | 5 | 18.2 | 45.5 |
| M Price & M Kent Jnr | 17 | 4 | 6 | 23.5 | 35.3 |
| Ben Brisbourne | 15 | 2 | 5 | 13.3 | 33.3 |
| R D Griffiths | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22.2 | 33.3 |
| A & S Freedman | 13 | 3 | 4 | 23.1 | 30.8 |
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Race by race: Bendigo predictions
Race 1: Race Services Mdn Plate, 1:44PM, 1600m
Roebuck Plane has run 4, 3, 3 in three starts, all since mid July, and that steady line is the best thing in a three-year-old maiden that has been thinned by four scratchings. Golden Rainbow, Pandie Pandie, Raisonic and Miss Capri are all out. The Waterhouse and Bott runner gets MS L J Meech, who has won one and placed three times from eight Bendigo rides, and barrier 9 is workable over 1600m with plenty of time to find a spot.
The stable has only had three runners here, one of them a winner, so I won’t lean on that. The form is the case: two thirds in a row and the obvious next step is the win.
The danger is Bow And Ammo. C Maher’s runner ran third on debut, carries 124.5kg against the 127.8kg on most of the field, and the stable has had 51 Bendigo runners for eight winners and 24 placings. One run is one run, but a Maher maiden that placed first up usually improves. Adakite, a second at its most recent start for the Nichols and Black yard, rounds out the trifecta.
Win bet on Roebuck Plane, with Bow And Ammo the saver.
Race 2: Roll The Dice Racing Mdn Plate, 2:19PM, 1600m
The Hayes stable doesn’t usually leave a maiden sitting on a string of placings for long. Akari Spirit has finished second and third at the two runs since mid July, and carries 127.8kg against the 131.1kg on half the field. Jackson Radley rides, and he’s had four rides for the stable at Bendigo for one win, a small sample but a pairing that has been here before.
The worry is barrier 14. Over 1600m there’s a run to the first turn, but Radley will either have to burn some petrol or drop back and come wide.
Zovozo is the steady one. Five runs this time in for three placings without a win, drawn 13, and E & D Browne have placed three of their four runners here. Girt By Sea is the unknown with upside: a second on its only start, and Patrick Moloney on board. Moloney wins more races at this track than anyone else riding today, though barrier 15 is about as bad as it gets. Belle Flamme ran third on the only Bendigo visit for Henry Dwyer.
Win bet on Akari Spirit, and box it with Zovozo and Girt By Sea in a trifecta. Norfolk Victory is scratched.
Race 3: Ladbrokes Tote Win + 10% Mdn Plate, 2:54PM, 1000m
Hard to have a confident view here. If forced, I’m Intrigued gets the nod: a second and a fifth from two recent starts, a fifth on the one previous Bendigo visit, and barrier 2 to hold a spot over the short trip. B Rawiller places at better than a third of his rides here without having won one, which sums the horse up as well.
Verismo is the one that could make this look easy. A fourth on debut for A & S Freedman, who have won three races from 13 Bendigo runners, and the three-year-old carries 5.5kg less than the four topweights. Miss Verona, fifth on debut for the Hayes yard, carries just 117.9kg, the lightest weight in the field. Lonnegan and Pragmatic Lady are scratched.
Small each-way on I’m Intrigued. Otherwise a watch race.
Race 4: Adroit Insurance & Risk Hcp (56), 3:29PM, 1000m
Boudica Warrior carries 112.4kg. The next lightest horse in the race carries 120.1kg. In a 1000m sprint off a 56 rating, that gap is the bet.
The form says Boudica Warrior is ready to use it. A third and then a second at the two runs since mid July, after a run of unplaced efforts earlier in the campaign, so this is a horse coming into form rather than going out of it. Barrier 1 lets Hayley Spitse sit on the fence and save every metre, and over 1000m that’s no small thing. Spitse has ridden here once and placed.
The danger comes from the same stable. Bronco Revolution, also trained by K J Evans, won one of four starts in the last 90 days and finished third last time. Caitlin Hollowood has two wins from nine Bendigo rides, the best strike rate of any regular jockey on the card. El Salto has placed three times from seven recent starts without winning and is the each-way plodder, while Bring The Thunder, from a Luke Oliver stable that has placed two of its four runners here, is next in.
Win bet on Boudica Warrior, with a small saver on Bronco Revolution.
Race 5: Wilsons Tree Services (Bm62), 4:05PM, 1300m
This is the best race on the card and the one I want to be heaviest on. Shapenapit has the profile I like most at a country track: proven at the venue and in form right now. Three Bendigo starts have produced a win and two top three finishes, and the four runs since mid July read 1, 4, 2, 2, so he has been in the first three at three of his last four. No other runner in this field has more than one start here.
The weights help. Shapenapit carries 127.8kg, a full 7.7kg less than topweight Thinking Sensation. Barrier 12 is the one knock, and over 1300m it means either pushing forward early or settling worse than midfield, but a horse that knows the track and keeps running in the first three can handle a wide gate.
The contrast is Thinking Sensation. The Matthew Cumani runner has won two of four runs in the last 90 days, including the latest, and draws barrier 2 for Neil Farley. On form alone he’s the equal of anything here. The question is 135.5kg, and whether any horse can give that much weight away in a field this even. These two have never met, so there’s no form line to settle it.
Misty Whisper has won one and run third at two recent starts, but jumps from barrier 16, the widest gate in the race. Fast Freddie is the three-year-old for A & S Freedman: placed at both runs in the last 90 days and in at 127.8kg, so there’s improvement still to come. Legacy Bel won last start and Baganov placed at its only Bendigo run. Tempt The Gods, Holding Captive and Shalailed are all scratched.
Back Shapenapit to win, with Thinking Sensation and Fast Freddie as the quinella partners. It’s the bet of the day.
Race 6: Bambrough Tree Consultancy Hcp (56), 4:46PM, 1400m
Two horses that keep finishing in the frame, and the question is which one finally wins. Hidden Witness has run second at each of the last three starts, all in the last 90 days, and after Bellakai‘s scratching Hidden Witness carries 124.5kg, the lightest weight left in the race. Neil Farley rides from barrier 13.
Savethebesttillast is the other side of the coin. Seven runs since mid July for five placings and no wins, form reading 3, 2, 4, 2, 2, 3 over the last six. Savethebesttillast has had four Bendigo starts for one placing, which isn’t the course form you’d want, but the consistency elsewhere is hard to ignore. At 130.0kg he gives Hidden Witness 5.5kg.
That weight swing is why I side with Hidden Witness for the win. Frozen Tide, from an S Fliedner stable that has won with one of its two Bendigo runners, is the best of the rest. Popthebubbly has a win in its last six starts and goes up and down.
Win bet on Hidden Witness, each-way on Savethebesttillast.
Race 7: The Sporting Globe After The Last Hcp (56), 5:31PM, 1600m
On recent wins, Boy From Tennessee is the obvious starting point, and I’m wary. Two wins in the last 90 days look good on paper, but they came early: he has run 4, 5 and 9 since, and now shoulders the 132.2kg topweight.
Makusha is my pick. Makusha won two starts back, ran third last time, and drops in with 122.3kg, the second lightest weight in the race. Hayley Spitse rides, and over 1600m from barrier 11 she’ll have time to settle and find cover. Determinato is the danger: a second and a win from three recent runs, though the last of those was unplaced, and MS L J Meech knows the track. Newcombe has placed in four of six runs lately without a win and is the place-only type.
Each-way on Makusha. Newcombe into the trifecta.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Shapenapit (Race 5, 4:05PM). The only horse on the card with a Bendigo win from three or more starts, in form, and carrying 7.7kg less than the topweight he has to beat.
Value: Boudica Warrior (Race 4, 3:29PM). In form, drawn on the fence and carrying close to 8kg less than anything else in a 1000m sprint. Markets weren’t up when I wrote this, so take the best price you can find once they open.
Banker: Akari Spirit (Race 2, 2:19PM). Second and third in two recent runs, 3.3kg less than half the field, and a stable that has won eight races here.
Each-way: Savethebesttillast (Race 6, 4:46PM). Five placings from seven runs since mid July. The win has been elusive, but the place has barely been missed.
Course angle: Patrick Moloney. Three wins and nine placings from 21 Bendigo rides is the best haul of any jockey on today’s card, and he rides Aye Aye, Girt By Sea and The Buncha early in the day.
If Shapenapit adds a second Bendigo win today, he’ll be the first name I look for in future Bendigo racing tips every time he’s entered here.
FAQ
What time does the first race start at Bendigo on Saturday?
Race 1, the Race Services Mdn Plate over 1600m, jumps at 1:44PM. The last, The Sporting Globe After The Last Hcp (56), goes at 5:31PM, with seven races on a Good turf track.
Which jockeys and trainers go best at Bendigo?
Patrick Moloney leads today’s riders with three wins and nine placings from 21 Bendigo rides. Among trainers, C Maher has eight winners from 51 runners here and the Hayes stable eight from 44, with both placing at close to half their runners.
What are the best bets at Bendigo today?
Shapenapit in Race 5 is the top pick, with a win and two top three finishes from three course starts. Boudica Warrior in Race 4 is the value play off 112.4kg, and Akari Spirit in Race 2 is the multi leg.
Where can I find the best Bendigo odds?
Markets had not opened at the time of writing. Compare the bookmakers listed above once prices go up, and check the each-way terms for Race 6, where Savethebesttillast has placed in five of seven recent runs.