Overview
Mainstay has been to Scone once and won, and the record of the stable and rider who put him there is the reason this card is worth your time. Peter Messara and Leah Gavranich, with Aaron Bullock in the saddle, have won 12 of their 25 runs together at this track and placed in 20 of them. They bring three runners today, and the one carrying top weight in the Vale Billy Farrow Hcp is unbeaten in two starts.
Eight races on a Good to Soft turf track, first jump 2:10PM and the last at 6:30PM. The card swings from a 2200m Class 1 staying test to a pair of Benchmark 82 races, with three maidens in between where first and second up runners will decide the money. These Scone racing tips walk through all eight, tell you who we like and who can beat them, and finish with the plays worth putting cash on.
Reading the Scone card
The Upper Hunter track is home turf for a handful of local stables, and today’s numbers lean their way. Bullock has ridden 76 times here for 22 wins, and he places more than half the time. Mitchell Bell is close behind on place strike rate from a smaller book of rides. Among trainers, Nathan Doyle and the Messara and Gavranich team are the two placing above 60% at the course.
Horse course form is light. Most runners have one or two starts here, and only a handful have been around three times.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panta Rhei | 3 | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 100.0 |
| Bonoyster | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 66.7 |
| Sigsaly | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| City Gold Speed | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Sunday Bell | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Bullock | 76 | 22 | 43 | 28.9 | 56.6 |
| Mitchell Bell | 56 | 9 | 31 | 16.1 | 55.4 |
| O A Dalton | 14 | 2 | 7 | 14.3 | 50.0 |
| MS M Weir | 64 | 10 | 29 | 15.6 | 45.3 |
| Ashley Morgan | 34 | 2 | 12 | 5.9 | 35.3 |
| Braith Nock | 48 | 4 | 14 | 8.3 | 29.2 |
| Reece Jones | 81 | 9 | 23 | 11.1 | 28.4 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Doyle | 29 | 6 | 18 | 20.7 | 62.1 |
| P Messara & L Gavranich | 34 | 13 | 21 | 38.2 | 61.8 |
| Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 67 | 15 | 35 | 22.4 | 52.2 |
| S I Singleton | 70 | 13 | 36 | 18.6 | 51.4 |
| Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald | 53 | 7 | 25 | 13.2 | 47.2 |
| R P Northam | 72 | 10 | 24 | 13.9 | 33.3 |
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Scone racing tips: race by race
Race 1: Isec Plate (C1), 2:10PM, 2200m
Tasman Deel opens the day as the one to beat, and the reason is simple: he keeps turning up. Four runs in the last 90 days have produced three placings, his only Scone start was a placing too, and the form line of 3423 says he is a horse who finds the line without quite finding the front. Over 2200m, at a Class 1 level, that kind of reliability counts for plenty.
The booking helps. Bullock rides for the Messara and Gavranich stable, the partnership that has the best numbers at this track, and from gate 6 in a field of eight he has room to settle and pick his moment.
Quirky Princess is the danger. She won last start, has a win and two placings from five runs in the last three months, and Weir gives her a sound ride. If she backs that win up she can lead them a long way. Win bet on Tasman Deel, with a saver on Quirky Princess.
Race 2: Coolmore Country Boosted Mdn Plate, 2:45PM, 1400m
Can a maiden this weak produce a confident bet? Not really. Shakespeare’s Girl is the most consistent of them, placing in two of four runs in the last 90 days, and her one look at Scone also produced a placing. Weir rides, and Patrick Cleave’s mare drew gate 5, which is fine in a field this size.
Irish Accolade has placed three times from nine starts in that window, and she ran fourth last time. She is the obvious danger and will be thereabouts again. This is a watch race. If you must play, Shakespeare’s Girl each way, small stakes.
Race 3: Tab Magic Millions Gold Coast Carnival (Bm82), 3:20PM, 1600m
Two scratchings from the Northam stable, including Nova Centauri, who had won both of his Scone starts, have knocked the heart out of this race. What is left is a field of six and an open betting race.
Valorous Power returns from a spell carrying 61kg, but his last run before the break was a second, Bullock takes the ride, and he draws barrier 2 for a soft run. Zamborghini is the form horse: a win and two placings from five starts in the last 90 days, and a placing from two runs here. He is the one to beat if Valorous Power needs the run. Small win bet on Valorous Power, saver on Zamborghini.
Race 4: Kia Ora Hcp (C1), 4:00PM, 1300m
The Neasham and Archibald stable have two three-year-olds in this and the one to follow is Rolling Home. His form reads 33421, he won at his only run in the last 90 days, and he gets 59kg with Van Der Hoven aboard from gate 4. Three-year-olds on the way up beat seasoned Class 1 types more often than the market allows, and this one has been building to it.
Magurtz is the threat. Bullock rides for Simon Singleton, he finished 1822 in his last four starts and placed at his only Scone visit. Barrier 9 means he’ll need luck. No No Yes, with 61.5kg after a second last start, is the one for the exacta. Back Rolling Home to win.
Race 5: Pacific Fair Magic Millions Polo & Showjumping Mdn Plate, 4:40PM, 1000m
Frog Rock has the strongest recent run in this three-year-old maiden. He finished second at his only start in the last 90 days, his career line reads 6462, and Bullock jumps aboard from gate 3. Over 1000m that gate gives him the choice of going forward or sitting on the speed.
The Wildling is the danger with the most racing behind her. Six starts, two placings in the last three months, and the inside draw for Mitchell Bell. She knows how to find the frame, which is why she’s the each-way angle. Halcyon Belle and Tennessee River both ran fourth here on debut and should improve. Win on Frog Rock, The Wildling each way.
Race 6: Magic Millions Digital 23-28 Oct Sale Super Mdn Hcp, 5:20PM, 1200m
Two late defections, a big field and plenty of unknowns. Fizz Wizz ran third on debut and that one run is the best piece of form in the race. Matthew Smith’s runner drew gate 6 and gets a handy 56.5kg in a maiden handicap.
Nearest is the runner the stable will be quietly confident about. Messara and Gavranich again, Bullock again, gate 1, and two starts under his belt for a sixth and a fourth. If he takes the next step he wins. Electric Bliss placed once in two runs for Neasham. Fizz Wizz to win, with Nearest the saver.
Race 7: Vale Billy Farrow Hcp (C2), 5:55PM, 1000m
This is the race of the day. Mainstay is two from two, both in the last three months, and the first of those came at Scone in a maiden on 25 September. He won again next time out. Now he carries 61kg in a Class 2 sprint, and that’s the only knock.
The weight matters less than the connections. Bullock and the Messara and Gavranich stable have 12 wins and 20 placings from 25 runs together at this track, close to a coin flip on the win and four in five in the frame. Across every track the partnership is 25 wins from 61. Those numbers are not a fluke, and Mainstay has done nothing wrong to suggest he’s the exception. From gate 2 over 1000m he can jump and lead or sit just behind the speed, and either way he’s in charge at the 200m.
Panta Rhei is the danger, and a serious one. He has placed in all three of his Scone starts, won one of them, and from barrier 1 with Reece Jones he’ll be right there. His recent form line of 35221 is honest and he goes well on this track. Bonoyster, with six straight placings in the 333322 sequence and two placings from three runs here, will run into a place again.
Thorsten won last start for Matthew Smith and is another to respect. But the race sets up for the horse with the most ability and the best support. Back Mainstay to win, and box him with Panta Rhei in the exacta.
Race 8: Arrowfield Country Boosted (Bm82), 6:30PM, 1100m
The Cavanoughs send three to the last, and the market will probably side with the heavyweights. We’d rather have Hellcibell. She carries 57kg, 6kg less than her two stablemates, her last two runs were seconds, and she won a race in the last 90 days, placing three times from five. She has placed in both of her Scone starts too.
Warrior For Peace has a Scone win among his two runs here and is the stable’s top weight with 63kg. He’s the one most likely to beat her, although barrier 13 asks a question. Enterprise Legend won at his only Scone start and is light at 54.5kg. Hellcibell each way. If a price opens around the sort of odds her weight suggests she deserves, she is the value on the card.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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Where the money goes
NAP: Mainstay (Race 7, 5:55PM). Unbeaten, already a winner on this track, and backed by a jockey and stable combination that wins nearly half its Scone races.
Value: Hellcibell (Race 8, 6:30PM). Back-to-back seconds, a big weight drop on her stablemates and two placings from two at the track. No prices were up when this was written, so check the odds before you commit.
Banker: Rolling Home (Race 4, 4:00PM). An improving three-year-old who won last time and meets a Class 1 field that is short on progressive types.
Each-way: Tasman Deel (Race 1, 2:10PM). Three placings from four recent runs and a placing at his only Scone start. He rarely runs a bad race.
Course angle: Bullock on a Messara and Gavranich runner. Tasman Deel, Nearest and Mainstay all carry that combination today, and at Scone it places four times out of five.
If the Messara and Gavranich team keep landing Scone winners at this clip, their runners will be the first thing to check on every Upper Hunter card this spring.
Scone racing tips FAQ
What time does racing start at Scone today?
Race 1, the Isec Plate over 2200m, jumps at 2:10PM local time. The last, the Arrowfield Country Boosted over 1100m, is at 6:30PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Scone?
A Bullock leads today’s riders on course form with 22 wins from 76 rides at Scone and 43 placings. Among trainers, the Messara and Gavranich stable have 13 wins from 34 runners at the track, and Brett and Georgie Cavanough have 15 wins from 67.
What are the best bets at Scone today?
Mainstay in Race 7 is our NAP, unbeaten in two starts including a win at Scone. Hellcibell in Race 8 is the value play, and Rolling Home in Race 4 is the banker for multis.
Where can I find the best odds for Scone races?
Compare the bookmakers listed in the table above before you bet. Markets were not open when these Scone predictions were written, so prices for Mainstay and Hellcibell will need checking closer to the jump.