Overview
Warwoven carries 49.5kg into the Cox Plate after winning the Run To The Rose, the Golden Rose and the Caulfield Guineas in a row, and the older horses conceding 9.5kg have to find a way to stop that run. That’s the question hanging over the whole afternoon, and it lands in Race 8 at 5:10PM.
The Cox Plate has moved to Flemington this year, so a lot of these runners are dealing with a track that some of them barely know. Nine races on a Good surface, first jump at 12:25PM, and four of them carry real weight: the Cox Plate, the Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 2500m, the McEwen Stakes and the Kia Ora Stud Mile. These Flemington racing tips go race by race, name a pick and a danger in each, and finish with where the money actually goes. Expect one strong bet on the sprinters, one value play in the Cox Plate itself, and an honest pass on a couple of the thinner races.
Reading the Flemington card
Course form is spread across a handful of horses rather than the whole card. Eleven of today’s runners have been to Flemington three or more times, which is enough to make a table worth reading. Several of the fancied horses have only one course start, so treat those as data points rather than patterns.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint George | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40% | 40% |
| Too Darn Discreet | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25% | 50% |
| Enxuto | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Zakouma | 3 | 2 | 2 | 67% | 67% |
| Light Infantry Man | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67% |
| Birdman | 3 | 1 | 1 | 33% | 33% |
The jockey numbers have real volume behind them, so they belong in a table. Sorted by place rate:
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lane | 30 | 8 | 15 | 27% | 50% |
| Jabez Johnstone | 29 | 8 | 14 | 28% | 48% |
| Jamie Melham | 44 | 5 | 20 | 11% | 45% |
| D W Stackhouse | 56 | 4 | 22 | 7% | 39% |
| Craig Williams | 60 | 11 | 21 | 18% | 35% |
| Logan Bates | 65 | 8 | 19 | 12% | 29% |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D T O’Brien | 56 | 10 | 25 | 18% | 45% |
| Ben, Will & JD Hayes | 118 | 13 | 45 | 11% | 38% |
| T & C Mcevoy | 41 | 4 | 15 | 10% | 37% |
| C Maher | 149 | 22 | 53 | 15% | 36% |
| C J Waller | 44 | 3 | 14 | 7% | 32% |
Ciaron Maher is the name to keep in mind, with runners in eight of the nine races, and 22 Flemington winners from 149 starters is the deepest trainer record on the card.
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Flemington race-by-race
Race 1: Manhari Imperatriz Sprint, 12:25PM, 1000m
Ice Kool comes down from Sydney off a win, and that’s the form I trust most in a field full of horses chasing their best. Ice Kool won a Benchmark 100 over 1000m at Warwick Farm on 5 October as an even-money favourite, and the straight 1000m here asks the same question: can you hold a fast speed for a minute? Damian Lane rides, and Lane wins more than a quarter of Flemington rides from a meaningful sample.
Bred ‘Em All is the danger. Three wins from four career starts, the latest a handicap at Morphettville on 10 October, and Craig Williams takes the ride. It’s a jump in grade, but nothing in that profile says it can’t handle it. Perilous Fighter has won once from three visits here and draws in the middle.
Ice Kool to win.
Race 2: Hkjc World Pool Red Anchor Stakes, 1:00PM, 1200m
Four scratchings have stripped this back to six, and it now looks a fairly thin three-year-old race. Valaroso is the one with the clearest recent line: second in a Caulfield maiden on 16 September, then a win at Seymour on 11 October with Logan Bates aboard both times. Bates keeps the ride, and Valaroso has never finished worse than fifth in three starts.
Turbo Saint was second at Geelong on 7 October and picks up Damian Lane, which counts for something in a field this light on form. Buggsy has the most experience and has been to Flemington twice without placing. Small win bet on Valaroso, nothing more.
Race 3: Drummond Golf Vase, 1:40PM, 2040m
Does a filly with 2kg in hand beat the colts who ran in a Caulfield Benchmark 70 ten days ago? I think so. Joely ran second in the Edward Manifold Stakes over this track on 3 October at 13/1, which is the strongest piece of form anyone brings to the race, and she gets 55kg against the colts’ 57kg.
The rest come out of the same Caulfield race on 14 October, where True Rebel ran second, Written Empire third and Hierarchy fourth. True Rebel is the pick of that trio, a maiden winner at Geelong in September who has finished in the first three in all three recent starts. The step out to 2040m is the unknown for all of them.
Craig Williams on Joely is the other reason to side with her. Williams has 11 Flemington winners from 60 rides, the most of anyone riding today. Win bet on Joely, True Rebel the danger.
Race 4: Symal Crockett Stakes, 2:20PM, 1200m
Hard to have a confident view here. Angels Fury (form 9-1-1) won a Caulfield handicap over 1100m in July as the 4/5 favourite and comes from the Maher stable with Ethan Brown aboard, which is the best place to start.
The unknowns are the danger. Avery Anna and Aroused have both won their only start, and Caddington won a Kyneton maiden at 2/5 on 8 October. Any of them could be better than the race they beat. Nishioka has run second in both recent starts and is one to include in exotics if you play this race at all. Watch race for me, or a small win on Angels Fury.
Race 5: Cirka Mcewen Stakes, 3:00PM, 1200m
Jigsaw‘s form line reads like a typo: six wins in a row, the latest the Schillaci Stakes over 1100m at Caulfield on 10 October at 5/4. Logan Bates has ridden through the streak and keeps the ride.
Only eight run, which makes the pace hard to read, but six straight wins says Jigsaw doesn’t need a particular tempo. Extragalactic is the threat. Second in the Manikato Stakes at Caulfield on 27 September, that’s the best single run anyone else brings, and James McDonald rides. If Jigsaw is going to lose, it’s to Extragalactic.
Smooth Chino ran second in the Gilgai Stakes here on 3 October and is the each-way runner for the exotics. Mazu is fresh off a tenth in the Premiere Stakes and needs to improve.
Jigsaw to win, and the anchor for anything multi-shaped today.
Race 6: Kia Ora Stud Mile, 3:40PM, 1600m
Surfin’ Bird won the Evergreen Turf Vase over 1600m at Caulfield on 10 October, beating Astral Flame and Perfect Ten, and backs up at the same trip a fortnight later. Jordan Childs rides again. A win at the trip a fortnight ago is the strongest recent line in the race.
Two horses with one Flemington start each could test her. Pondalowie won the Let’s Elope Stakes here over 1400m on 12 September at 50/1, then ran fifth in the Toorak, and Astral Flame won at her only Flemington visit. Neither is a pattern yet, but both have shown they handle the track.
Enxuto is the interesting one for the place. Three visits to Flemington, three placings, no wins, and a third in the Bobbie Lewis Quality here at 150/1 in September. Back Surfin’ Bird to win, Enxuto as a place saver.
Race 7: Ladbrokes Moonee Valley Gold Cup, 4:20PM, 2500m
The two best recent staying runs in this field come from one race. Juja Kibo beat Aethelwulf in the Metropolitan at Randwick on 3 October, and now Aethelwulf gets 2.5kg back: 55.5kg against Juja Kibo‘s 58kg.
That swing matters, but the gates are the problem. Aethelwulf draws 19 and Juja Kibo 20 in a field still sitting at 16 after scratchings, and that’s a lot of ground to make up if they’re caught wide. So the pick is Pinhole from gate 9. Pinhole won the Herbert Power Stakes over 2400m at Caulfield on 10 October, has won two of three starts in the last 90 days and placed in all three, and gets McDonald in the saddle for Chris Waller.
Aethelwulf is the each-way play: three wins from the last four starts, including the Newcastle Gold Cup, and the one loss was that Metropolitan second. With cover from the wide draw, Aethelwulf is the most likely winner other than Pinhole.
Mr Monaco won the Bart Cummings here on 3 October at 7/1. That’s the only Flemington start on the record, and three weeks between runs is enough, so include Mr Monaco in exotics.
Pinhole to win, Aethelwulf each-way.
Race 8: Ladbrokes Cox Plate, 5:10PM, 2040m
Warwoven is the horse to beat, but the value sits elsewhere. Three wins in a row in the Run To The Rose, Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas, at 1200m, 1400m and 1600m, $2.55 million in prize money from four starts in the last 90 days, and 49.5kg on the back. The other three-year-old, Blind Raise, is the only other horse in the field below 57kg.
The question is 2040m. None of Warwoven‘s recent runs have gone past 1600m, and Blind Raise ran second in that Guineas. Blind Raise won the Guineas Prelude over 1400m and the McKenzie Stakes at Sandown before that, and won on the only visit to Flemington. Same weight as Warwoven, and very likely a much bigger price.
From the older brigade, Cosmic Crusader is the danger that worries me most. The Turnbull Stakes here over 2000m on 3 October was a win on the only Flemington run, followed by fourth in the Caulfield Cup, and Cosmic Crusader has finished in the first four in all six starts in the last 90 days. Aeliana (third in the Turnbull) and Light Infantry Man (second in it at 25/1) both have recent Flemington form too, and Saint George, second in the Caulfield Cup, has won twice from five Flemington starts.
Ceolwulf ran second in both the Epsom and the King Charles III Stakes at Randwick and is the forgotten runner in the field.
My bet: Warwoven to win as the main play, with a value bet on Blind Raise. If Warwoven‘s stamina gives out late, Blind Raise is the one built to take advantage.
Race 9: Powerflo Solutions Tesio Stakes, 5:50PM, 2040m
Ocean Bay has won four of five in the last 90 days and placed in all five. The latest was the Pinker Pinker over 2025m at Cranbourne on 9 October, which is about as close to today’s trip as you can get. D W Stackhouse has ridden every one of those runs and is in the frame on almost four of every ten Flemington rides. At 54kg on the minimum, she’s the safest horse on the card.
Too Darn Discreet carries the topweight of 60kg but ran second in the Let’s Elope here and third in the Stocks Stakes. She has been to Flemington four times for a win and two placings, and she’s the danger if Ocean Bay finds the class rise too much. Perfect Ten ran third behind Surfin’ Bird in the Turf Vase and is the each-way chance with Craig Williams aboard.
Ocean Bay to win, and she’s the banker for anything spread across the last four races.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Jigsaw (Race 5, 3:00PM). Six straight wins, the last of them the Schillaci Stakes. Losing is the one thing Jigsaw hasn’t done lately, and I won’t be betting on it starting here.
Value: Blind Raise (Race 8, 5:10PM). Same 49.5kg as Warwoven, with a profile that looks more suited to the step up to 2040m. If the Cox Plate turns into a staying test, Blind Raise is the one who benefits.
Banker: Ocean Bay (Race 9, 5:50PM). Placed in all five starts in the last 90 days, four of them wins, and she’s coming back from a win at a near-identical trip.
Each-way: Aethelwulf (Race 7, 4:20PM). Three wins and a second from the last four. The wide gate makes winning harder, but it doesn’t make a top three finish any less likely.
Course angle: Ciaron Maher. Twenty-two Flemington winners and runners in eight of the nine races. When a Maher runner’s form lines up, like Angels Fury‘s in Race 4, it’s worth backing.
If Warwoven does run out a strong 2040m at 49.5kg, the Melbourne Cup conversation about three-year-olds will start before the horses have pulled up.
Flemington racing tips: FAQ
What time does racing start at Flemington today?
Race 1, the Manhari Imperatriz Sprint, jumps at 12:25PM. The Cox Plate is Race 8 at 5:10PM and the last, the Tesio Stakes, goes at 5:50PM. The track is rated Good.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Flemington?
Craig Williams has the most Flemington winners of today’s riders, 11 from 60 rides. Damian Lane wins 8 from 30 and places in half of them. Ciaron Maher leads the trainers with 22 winners from 149 starters, and D T O’Brien places with 45% of Flemington runners.
What are the best bets at Flemington today?
Jigsaw in Race 5 is the NAP after six straight wins. Ocean Bay in Race 9 is the banker after four wins from five in the last 90 days. Blind Raise in the Cox Plate is the value play.
Where can I find the best odds for Flemington races?
Compare prices with the bookmakers listed in our toplist above. Markets were not open when these tips were written, so check prices before you bet.