Overview
Proxima Dea has won her last five starts, three of them in the last 90 days for $1,497,000 in prizemoney, and she tries to make it six in the Crown Oaks over 2500m. No other filly in the race comes in with a record like it, and Zac Lloyd keeps the ride for David Payne.
The track is rated Good. Nine races run from 1:00PM to 5:50PM, with the Oaks as Race 8 at 5:10PM and the G.H.Mumm Century Stakes over 1000m to close. These Flemington racing tips cover all nine races, the riders and stables with real numbers at the track, and a quaddie built around the Oaks. Only Races 1 to 4 had prices up when this was written, so the odds below come from those races.
Reading the Flemington card
Most of today’s runners have been to Flemington once or twice. A handful have been here enough to count, and one of them stands out: Sass Appeal has won four of her six starts on this track.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sass Appeal | 6 | 4 | 4 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Enxuto | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 75.0 |
| Salann | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 66.7 |
| She’s Got The Cash | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 66.7 |
| Merrigold | 3 | 1 | 1 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Perilous Fighter | 4 | 1 | 1 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Kahhof | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 25.0 |
| My Brothers Keeper | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 20.0 |
The riders give us far more to work with. Mark Zahra has finished in the first three on 19 of his 34 Flemington rides, the best place rate on the card among jockeys with a real sample. Damian Lane has the most wins, 11 from 52 rides, and he has eight rides today.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Zahra | 34 | 4 | 19 | 11.8 | 55.9 |
| J B McDonald | 21 | 4 | 10 | 19.0 | 47.6 |
| Jamie Melham | 49 | 5 | 21 | 10.2 | 42.9 |
| D W Stackhouse | 67 | 4 | 26 | 6.0 | 38.8 |
| Damian Lane | 52 | 11 | 20 | 21.2 | 38.5 |
| W Pike | 27 | 5 | 10 | 18.5 | 37.0 |
| Craig Williams | 86 | 13 | 28 | 15.1 | 32.6 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J D Sadler | 13 | 3 | 6 | 23.1 | 46.2 |
| D T O’Brien | 63 | 11 | 27 | 17.5 | 42.9 |
| John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 23.1 | 38.5 |
| Ben, Will & JD Hayes | 134 | 16 | 49 | 11.9 | 36.6 |
| C J Waller | 70 | 8 | 25 | 11.4 | 35.7 |
| C Maher | 197 | 26 | 67 | 13.2 | 34.0 |
C Maher brings the biggest team, eight runners across the day, and has trained 26 Flemington winners. D T O’Brien has only one runner, but it is Sass Appeal, and he places with more than four in ten of his runners here.
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Flemington race by race
Race 1: Tcl Trophy (Bm70), 1:00PM, 1700m
The market has Autumn Slide at $4.80 with Bet Right, and that is where we think it has the race wrong. Autumn Slide has placed at four of the last six starts without winning any of them, and that is a short price in a field of 16.
Cute Girl is the one we want. Three wins and four placings from five starts in the last 90 days, and the last run was a win. W Pike rides, with five wins from 27 Flemington rides, at 59.5kg from barrier 9. At $14 with Unibet, Cute Girl is the value on the card.
Jenni You Think is the danger at $6 with Unibet, placed at all three runs in the last 90 days without winning, and Mark Zahra finishes in the first three here more often than anyone riding today. Affaire Vue, with three wins from four runs in the same period, is an interesting roughie at $34 with Unibet. Each-way on Cute Girl.
Race 2: Sharp Eit Subzero (Bm90), 1:35PM, 1400m
Youre Not The King comes in with two wins from two runs in the last 90 days and gets in light at 53kg. The form line finishes with back to back wins, the draw is barrier 2, and Rachel King rides for Bjorn Baker, who has trained three winners from 19 runners at Flemington.
At $2.50 with Unibet there is no hidden value, but this is the most likely winner. Alabama Fox is the danger at $4.20 with Unibet. Zac Lloyd‘s mount has won one and placed in both runs in the last 90 days, though barrier 13 means more work to find cover. Chakado, a win and two placings from two recent runs for Damian Lane, is the next best at $12 with Bet Right. Win bet on Youre Not The King.
Race 3: Channel 9 Chester Manifold Stakes, 2:10PM, 1600m
Does Tavi Time deserve to be favourite? The price is $4.20 with Bet Right, but the record is one placing from two runs in the last 90 days and no win in the last five starts. J B McDonald on board explains some of the support.
We prefer Just Folk. A ten-year-old with 59kg, but placed in three of four runs in the last 90 days and $506,000 banked doing it, far more than anything else in this field. Just Folk has also placed at both Flemington starts. J Mott rides for Gavin Bedggood. At $8 with Unibet, each-way backers have a strong chance of a return.
Enxuto is the danger, placed in three of four runs at Flemington without winning, and B Shinn rides at 55kg. At $6.75 with Bet Right, Enxuto suits a place bet more than a win. Each-way on Just Folk.
Race 4: Inglis Bracelet, 2:45PM, 1600m
Five scratchings have left seven runners, and Sass Appeal is the one they all have to beat. Four wins from six Flemington starts make this the clearest course specialist on the card. Damian Lane and D T O’Brien have won five of their 22 races together, and two of their four Flemington runs.
The price is $1.65 with Unibet, and there is one thing to weigh. The last four starts read 4-4-2-4, with no win from four runs in the last 90 days. The Flemington record is good enough for us to forgive that, but this is not one to be piling into at the price.
Polymnia, placed in two of three recent runs and $4 with Bet Right, is the main danger. Bella Verona has won two of three runs in the last 90 days and is $11 with Unibet. Win bet on Sass Appeal and the banker leg for multis.
Race 5: Sigma Trophy (Bm90), 3:20PM, 1800m
Veyepee has the rail. Barrier 1, two wins from three runs in the last 90 days and $102,000 in prizemoney, with Zac Lloyd riding for A & S Freedman at 54.5kg.
Perisher is the danger: a win at the only run in the last 90 days, three wins in the last four starts, and J B McDonald rides for C Maher. Barrier 13 is a problem over 1800m, and that is why Perisher is second on our line. Nobler, placed for Damian Lane and C J Waller, is a place chance. There were no prices for this race when this was written. Win bet on Veyepee, small saver on Perisher.
Race 6: Cirka Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final (Bm80), 3:55PM, 1600m
Our Justify and Lofty Thoughts both come here with two wins from two runs in the last 90 days and $74,250 in prizemoney each. Where they differ is the draw. Our Justify starts from barrier 5 with 54.5kg and D W Stackhouse, who has placed on 26 of his 67 Flemington rides. Lofty Thoughts has J B McDonald, but barrier 19 in a field of 20 is a long way out.
Big Rooster is the third horse with two from two in the last 90 days, and barrier 2 should give it the run of the race. Jerome Hunter has a second runner in Bel Mezyaan, who won its only run in the last 90 days. A field this big makes a confident win bet hard. Each-way on Our Justify, with Big Rooster the danger.
Race 7: Crown Red Roses Stakes, 4:30PM, 1100m
Sequinned has the strongest recent profile in this three-year-old race. Two wins and $118,100 from three runs in the last 90 days, the form finishing 1-5-1, and the J B McDonald and C J Waller combination. Barrier 10 over 1100m will need a little luck, but the form is the best in the field.
Scintillation has placed at all three runs in the last 90 days and at both Flemington starts, without a win in any of them. It keeps turning up, and barrier 2 helps. Handee and I Am Algadon both have two wins from three recent runs. Win bet on Sequinned, Scintillation for the place.
Race 8: Crown Oaks, 5:10PM, 2500m
Proxima Dea is the best bet on the card. She has won her last five starts, including all three runs in the last 90 days, and those wins earned $1,497,000. That is three times the prizemoney of the next best filly. Every runner carries 56kg, so there is no weight in it.
The worry is barrier 19. With 17 left after three scratchings she starts wider than most of the field, and Zac Lloyd has to decide early whether to push forward or drop back and come wide. A filly that wins every time she goes around has usually got the answer to that, and we expect her to get through.
Quick Finish is the danger. Two wins and four placings from four runs in the last 90 days, worth $431,600, though the latest run was a third. Jye Mcneil rides for T & C Mcevoy, who also have Expensive Taste and Courting. Icelady has placed in all four runs in the last 90 days with a win among them, and Ethan Brown rides for C Maher.
De Armas has barrier 1 and won at her only Flemington start, and J B McDonald rides for C J Waller, who also has Your Colour and Tharwa. Salann has placed in two of three runs here. No prices were up when this was written. Win bet on Proxima Dea, and an exacta with Quick Finish and Icelady underneath.
Race 9: G.H.Mumm Century Stakes, 5:50PM, 1000m
Ice Kool closes the day from barrier 4. A win and two placings from three runs in the last 90 days, $94,250 earned, and Damian Lane rides at 57kg.
Saluted is the danger. Three placings from three recent runs, the latest form reading 2-3-3, and R D Griffiths has a second runner here in Rey Magnerio. Stokke won at its only Flemington start and has $121,500 from four runs in the last 90 days, more than anyone else in the race, but just one of those was a win. Bev’s Nine placed in both recent runs for John O’Shea and Tom Charlton. A tight sprint to finish. Each-way on Ice Kool.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Proxima Dea (Race 8, 5:10PM). Five straight wins, and nothing else in the Oaks has won more than twice in the last 90 days. Barrier 19 is the only question, and she has the form to get past it.
Value: Cute Girl (Race 1, 1:00PM), $14 with Unibet. Three wins from five runs in the last 90 days and a last-start win, yet she is priced like an outsider.
Banker: Sass Appeal (Race 4, 2:45PM), $1.65 with Unibet. Four wins from six at the track, in a field cut to seven.
Each-way: Just Folk (Race 3, 2:10PM), $8 with Unibet. Placed at both Flemington starts and in three of four recent runs.
Course angle: Follow Mark Zahra into the placings. He has finished in the first three on 19 of 34 rides here, and today he rides Jenni You Think, Bustling, Feroce, Fireball Miss, Rosa Aotearoa, Calamari Ring and Landmark.
Quaddie (Races 6 to 9): Our Justify, Big Rooster and Lofty Thoughts, then Sequinned and Scintillation, Proxima Dea on her own, and Ice Kool and Saluted in the last.
If Proxima Dea wins this the way she has won her last five, the autumn three-year-old staying races will be built around her.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Flemington today?
Race 1, the Tcl Trophy (Bm70) over 1700m, starts at 1:00PM. The Crown Oaks is Race 8 at 5:10PM and the last, the G.H.Mumm Century Stakes, goes at 5:50PM. The track is rated Good.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Flemington?
Damian Lane has won 11 of his 52 Flemington rides and has eight rides today. Mark Zahra places on more than half of his rides here, 19 from 34. Among the trainers, C Maher has 26 Flemington winners from 197 runners and D T O’Brien has 11 from 63.
What are the best bets at Flemington today?
Proxima Dea in the Crown Oaks is the NAP after five straight wins. Sass Appeal in Race 4 is the banker on four wins from six at the track, and Cute Girl at $14 with Unibet in Race 1 is the value pick.
Where can I find the best odds for Flemington races?
When this was written only Races 1 to 4 were priced, with Bet Right and Unibet sharing the best prices. Compare the bookmakers above on race day for the later races, including the Oaks.