TJ Smith Stakes Tips & Preview 2023

Looking for TJ Smith Stakes tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2023 TJ Smith Stakes at Randwick.

TJ SMITH STAKES BETTING SNAPSHOT

The TJ Smith Stakes is always one of the big highlights of The Championships at Randwick and this year’s edition shapes as no exception. The 2022 Everest (1200m) winner, Giga Kick, is a $4.20 favourite with Palmerbet ahead of the three time TJ Smith Stakes winner, Nature Strip, and the Godolphin filly, In Secret, at $5.50. 

I Wish I Win is at $8.50, while Private Eye is the other under double figures at $9.50. The horse that defeated Giga Kick at her most recent start, Passive Aggressive, is at $12, while Mazu at $14 heads the rest.  

TJ SMITH STAKES FORM ANALYSIS

Giga Kick has had the one run this time in and settled back in the Challenge Stakes (1000m) on March 4 before running on for 3rd behind Passive Aggressive. They absolutely crawled early on in that race and he came home in 21.48 over the last 400m and 11.08 over the last 200m on a Soft track. 

Second up last time the Clayton Douglas-trained galloper was a slight improver on benchmark figures before claiming the Everest at the track and trip fourth up. Passive Aggressive is worth a bit of thought on her effort as well and might enjoy the 1200m. 

Nature Strip was 4th behind Giga Kick in the Everest before finishing a runner-up in the Champions Sprint (1200m) at Flemington. Some have written the champion off after he could only manage 6th when resuming in the Lightning Stakes (1000m). He did go a healthy 10.9 lengths faster than standard that day and improved five lengths on figures when second up at his previous preparation. 

Best last start benchmark figures belong to In Secret, who blew them away in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) at Flemington on March 11, going 15.1 lengths faster than standard benchmark. She has won her last four over the 1200m, including one at Randwick to kick off her autumn preparation this time in. 

Four other runners come out of the Newmarket and they are Lofty Strike (2nd), I Wish I Win (3rd), Private Eye (4th) and Mazu (5th). The Private Eye form ties in well with that horse finishing a narrow runner-up in the Everest last year. 

You could just about make a case for all of the beaten brigade from the Newmarket Handicap but the one might be I Wish I Win, who is better at the weights and produced the fastest last 400m in the Newmarket. He has won the Sydney way of going, having claimed the Golden Eagle (1500m) last year and has produced double digit benchmark figures in all of his six runs in Australia. 

Mariamia is another last start Group 1 winner in the field and claimed the Galaxy (1100m) at her last start. The Jo Pride-trained mare kicked clear to go 14.8 lengths faster than standard at Rosehill. She produced double digit figures earlier this preparation over the 1200m but the big jump in weight might test her out. 

TJ SMITH STAKES TIPS AND BEST BETS

We should see a genuine tempo at this level and Nature Strip, Passive Aggressive and Mariamia are among those that can set the tempo. What a race this is and there are a stack of chances. The heart says Nature Strip in his quest to make it four in a row but the head is pointing to others in the field. Giga Kick is a big threat as well as In Secret after her last start win. But the one for me is I Wish I Win, who consistently produces quality figures. The Peter Moody-trained galloper represents a bit of value and should be right at his peak at his third run. I hope Luke Nolen does not snag him too far back from barrier 14 in the early stages. Look for him to be steaming home late.