Charleville Racing Tips Oct 4: Boss Bandit The One To Beat?
Ballina Racing Tips October 4 — Is M J Dunn Too Strong?
Overview
M J Dunn doesn’t often get the chance to dominate a card with only two races on it, but that’s exactly the position he’s in at Ballina on October 4. His stable has three runners spread across today’s maiden plate and maiden handicap, and he carries a 23.53% win rate and a two-thirds placing record from 34 runners at this track, numbers that make him the standout trainer on a tight program. These Ballina racing tips lean on that course history, on the best jockey strike rate at the track in D L Turner, and on the strongest in-form runner on the card in Money On My Mind, to work through both races on the turf. Two maidens, eighteen runners between them, and enough signal in the data to back something with real confidence. Read on for the full race-by-race picture and where the value sits.
What Ballina gives us today
Course form is thin across the board. Only two of today’s runners have ever started at this track before — Arabian Legacy has two runs here without troubling the judge, and Checks’n’balances placed on its only visit — and neither sample is big enough to build an argument on. Shift the weight instead to trainers and jockeys, where the picture is far clearer.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christos Zintilis | 3 | 1 | 3 | 33.33% | 100.0% |
| M J Dunn | 34 | 8 | 23 | 23.53% | 67.65% |
| S J Bennett | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16.67% | 50.0% |
| Peter Robl | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 33.33% |
| Stephen & Jordan Lee | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Fleur Henley | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| J D Shelton | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
M J Dunn is the volume trainer at Ballina and it isn’t close — 34 runners is more than the rest of this list combined, and a two-thirds placing record off that kind of sample is a genuine course form line, not a hot streak. The placing rates drop off fast after that, with Christos Zintilis the only one bettering his number, albeit from a far smaller sample.
| Jockey | Rides | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin P Stanley | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| D L Turner | 10 | 4 | 5 | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| A Mallyon | 18 | 4 | 9 | 22.22% | 50.0% |
| D Peisley | 18 | 3 | 9 | 16.67% | 50.0% |
| Jett Newman | 20 | 1 | 10 | 5.0% | 50.0% |
| R Spokes | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| K H Zechner | 17 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 35.29% |
| B Lerena | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16.67% | 33.33% |
| N Tomizawa | 13 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 30.77% |
D L Turner is the one to note. Ten rides at Ballina have produced four wins and five places, a 40% strike rate that’s the best on today’s card by a wide margin and well clear of the bigger-sample riders like A Mallyon and D Peisley, who both sit on 50% place rates but convert far less often. At the other end, K H Zechner and N Tomizawa have had plenty of rides here — 17 and 13 respectively — without landing a winner between them, which is worth knowing before backing anything purely on a jockey’s name.
Race-by-race
Race 1: Tab Country Boosted Mdn Plate — 1:20pm, 1422m
D L Turner’s 40% strike rate at Ballina is the best on today’s card, and he partners Prestige Exotic in this one. The three-year-old carries a formline this campaign of 4-6-3, good enough for one placing from three runs and an average finish of 4.3, and it’s drawn barrier two, which keeps the run simple for Turner from the gates. Stephen and Jordan Lee’s own record at the track is modest — 12.5% winners from eight runners — but with Turner in this kind of form, the rider carries more weight than the stable number does.
Checks’n’balances is the swing factor. The gelding has placed in half of his last six runs (3-4-3-7-2-7), honest figures without being spectacular, and its only start at this track produced a placing. K H Zechner rides him, and has had 17 goes at Ballina without landing a winner — a third of his rides place, none convert — the kind of booking that leans entirely on the horse doing the work rather than the hoop.
Win bet on Prestige Exotic. Checks’n’balances is the only other one worth a thought, but this looks like Turner’s race to lose.
Race 2: Hartleys Fresh Market Ballina Fair Mdn Hcp — 1:55pm, 1739m
Money On My Mind has been doing everything but win. Four places from the last five runs, an 80% hit-out rate and an average finishing position of 2.8 make it the strongest recent-form package on the entire card, even without a win to show for it yet. Beau Gorman and jockey B Lerena don’t have the course runs here to build a track record, but the horse’s own figures — 6-4-0-2-2 across the last five starts — do the talking on their own, and the step up to 1739m is no stretch for something that’s already raced over genuine mile-plus trips. The one knock is barrier nine, which means it’ll need some luck in the run, but on these figures it’s hard to leave out.
So Sain is the obvious threat, with three placings from its last six runs (6-6-2-2-3-5) and a habit of finding support without ever quite getting there. If the speed collapses in the straight, this is the type built to benefit from it.
Swift Sovereign earns a mention for the stable alone. Christos Zintilis has started three runners at Ballina and finished in the money every time, including a win — too small a sample to call a trend, but a perfect record all the same. King Conquer carries name power too, with M J Dunn and D L Turner, the two standout connections on today’s card, both engaged, even though its own recent figures (two runs, no placings) make it no more than a watch from here.
Money On My Mind to win. If the gate opens kindly, this is the one that finally goes one better.
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Where the money goes
Four names carry the weight in today’s Ballina racing tips.
NAP: Money On My Mind (Race 2, 1:55pm). Four places from five runs and an 80% hit-out rate this campaign is the strongest in-form figure on the entire program, and it’s dropped into a race it should be winning rather than placing in.
Value: Prestige Exotic (Race 1, 1:20pm). The market rarely prices in a jockey carrying a 40% strike rate at a track, and that’s exactly the gap here with D L Turner aboard an improving three-year-old. Odds weren’t available at the time of writing, so check the board before backing it.
Banker: Checks’n’balances (Race 1). Not the most exciting runner on the card, but one that’s found the frame in half its runs this campaign is the sort that keeps a multi alive.
Each-way: So Sain (Race 2). Three placings from its last six starts is a genuine place profile, even without the trainer or jockey numbers to back it up.
Course angle: M J Dunn. Three runners across these two races, a 23.53% win rate and a 67.65% placing record from 34 runners at this track — the volume trainer at Ballina, and it isn’t close.
If Dunn keeps sending them here in these numbers, he’ll be the standing Ballina angle every time this track gets a meeting.
Best Bookmakers for Today’s Racing
Live odds weren’t available for this Ballina meeting at the time of writing. Check the list below for current offers before placing anything.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Ballina today?
Racing at Ballina on October 4 opens with Race 1, the Tab Country Boosted Mdn Plate, at 1:20pm, followed by Race 2, the Hartleys Fresh Market Ballina Fair Mdn Hcp, at 1:55pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Ballina today?
M J Dunn leads the trainers with a 23.53% win rate and a 67.65% placing record from 34 runners at the track. D L Turner tops the jockeys with four wins from ten rides, a 40% strike rate well clear of the rest of today’s riders.
What are the best bets at Ballina today?
Money On My Mind in Race 2 is the pick of the card on recent form, with four places from its last five runs. Prestige Exotic in Race 1 is the value option, partnered by leading rider D L Turner.
Where can I find the best odds for Ballina races?
Bookmaker odds weren’t available for this meeting at the time of writing. Check the bookmaker list on this page or compare prices with your preferred bookmaker before placing a bet.
