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Belmont Park Racing Tips: Can Too Dardy Carry Topweight?
Ryan Hill doesn’t fill half a ten-horse field by accident, and that’s exactly what he’s done in race one, sending Dawn Dancer, Phoenix Flaming, Kute As Kan Be, Dynastic Lass and Miss Ajax around together in the Ian Ashworth 80th Birthday Plate. That kind of volume booking is the loudest signal on an otherwise wide-open card, and it sets the tone for these Belmont Park racing tips: a meeting built less on standout favourites and more on reading which stables and riders are putting in the genuine effort today. Eight races run from 1:24pm to 5:40pm on the Belmont turf, from a 1094m sprint to a 1750m staying test, and there’s a horse worth backing in most of them once you look past the obvious.
Reading the Belmont Park card for today’s racing tips
Course form is patchy in the early races but builds into something usable by the middle of the card. A handful of horses have genuine sample sizes at the track, and it’s worth knowing who they are before the first jump.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Too Dardy | 6 | 3 | 5 | 50.0 | 83.3 |
| Back To Bondi | 4 | 2 | 3 | 50.0 | 75.0 |
| Silent Diva | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16.7 | 66.7 |
| Searchin’ Times | 5 | 3 | 3 | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Hey Pino | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14.3 | 57.1 |
| Under Influence | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14.3 | 42.9 |
| Fifth Essence | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 42.9 |
| Statewide | 9 | 1 | 3 | 11.1 | 33.3 |
The jockeys’ room tells its own story. Chris Parnham leads both categories among the qualified riders, and Holly Nottle’s name is worth remembering before race one — she’s aboard in all eight races today, the only rider with a full book, and her numbers below say she’s not just there to make up the field.
| Jockey | Rides | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Parnham | 108 | 20 | 48 | 18.5 | 44.4 |
| Lucy Fiore | 119 | 17 | 46 | 14.3 | 38.7 |
| C Johnston-Porter | 123 | 19 | 45 | 15.5 | 36.6 |
| Holly Nottle | 164 | 21 | 54 | 12.8 | 32.9 |
| Natika Riordan | 89 | 6 | 28 | 6.7 | 31.5 |
| P Harvey | 59 | 4 | 18 | 6.8 | 30.5 |
On the training side, Ryan Hill’s five-strong raid on race one isn’t the only volume play. Michael Grantham, G & A Williams and C & M Gangemi all have multiple runners scattered through the day, and the trainer table below shows why their runners are worth a second look regardless of which race they’re in.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Taylor | 15 | 2 | 8 | 13.3 | 53.3 |
| T M Andrews | 29 | 3 | 15 | 10.3 | 51.7 |
| G & A Williams | 99 | 20 | 49 | 20.2 | 49.5 |
| MS J Erkelens | 25 | 6 | 12 | 24.0 | 48.0 |
| S & J Casey | 58 | 8 | 25 | 13.8 | 43.1 |
| Mitchell Pateman | 56 | 11 | 24 | 19.6 | 42.9 |
Odds weren’t locked into the market early enough today to build a proper comparison, so treat any prices below as a guide rather than gospel and check current markets before betting.
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Race by race
Race 1: Ian Ashworth 80th Birthday Plate — 1:24pm, 1094m
Ryan Hill doesn’t fill half a field by accident, and that’s exactly what’s happened here: Dawn Dancer, Phoenix Flaming, Kute As Kan Be, Dynastic Lass and Miss Ajax all carry his colours in the same ten-horse plate. When a stable sends five runners into one race, the placement itself is the signal — Hill rates this group’s chances collectively, and Dawn Dancer looks the one he’s building the run around. She won on her only try at Belmont Park and has placed in every one of her last four starts, two of them wins, form that reads as an improving type getting the physical side of racing right at the right time. Carrying topweight of 124.5kg says the handicapper agrees.
The obvious go at her is Anaconda Jones, placed in all three runs this campaign including a win for trainer S J Wolfe, though she’s never raced at this track. Phoenix Flaming and Kute As Kan Be fill out the Hill stable’s second and third strings but sit further back on profile.
Back Dawn Dancer to win. If the Hill camp collects anywhere on the card, this looks like where.
Race 2: Tabtouch – Westspeed Platinum (Rs0ly) — 2:03pm, 1094m
Fantaxtic and Ripper Farooq offer two different pictures of the same problem. Fantaxtic has been building steadily under Mitchell Pateman — placed three times from six runs this term, twice by winning, plus a win from her two attempts at Belmont Park — and gets Holly Nottle up, who already places close to a third of her Belmont rides. Ripper Farooq carries the query: 128.9kg is a big ask off three placings from six runs this term, only one a win, though C & M Gangemi’s stable, with runners across three of today’s eight races, clearly still fancies him at the weight.
Fantaxtic’s finishing pattern suits a genuine test better than carrying near-topweight. Lean toward her each-way, with Ripper Farooq the one capable of running her down if the big weight doesn’t bite.
Race 3: Happy 70th Birthday Gavin Mcswain (Bm72+) — 2:39pm, 1312m
Does course experience mean more than a fresh weight advantage? Hey Pino has been to Belmont Park seven times, winning once and placing in four of those runs, and continues to find support from the MS R L Williams stable at 123.4kg. That’s course form built on a real sample, and the switch to S O’Donnell doesn’t hurt. The counter is Rally The Troops, who won his only try at this circuit and has placed in three of his last six runs, two of them wins, three kilograms lighter and ridden by Holly Nottle.
Pond Master is the each-way roughie worth a mention — his only Belmont Park placing was a win from two runs, though the six-start formline behind it for Takahide Ikenushi’s stable is otherwise moderate.
Hey Pino gets the vote on volume of evidence, best treated as a place bet; Rally The Troops is the more interesting each-way risk if the weight relief tells.
Race 4: Tabtouch Stakes (Bm84+) — 3:20pm, 1750m
Too Dardy is the horse to build the card around. He’s been to Belmont Park six times for three wins and five placings — half his starts have ended in the winner’s stall and he’s missed the frame only once — and the last three months have been even better: three wins from five runs, placing every single time. MS J Erkelens’ stable backs him at a genuine 24% win rate from 25 runners at this track, one of the best trainer numbers on the entire card, and S O’Donnell stays in the saddle. The only real question is topweight: 132.2kg is close to 7kg more than anything else in the race, and a Bm84+ handicap is built to find out whether a horse is good enough to carry it.
Royal Toronado is the horse best placed to make him carry every gram of it. He’s only had the one run at Belmont Park, placing, but the wider picture is outstanding: placed in five of his last six runs, two of them wins, for the powerful G & A Williams stable, which sits on a 20.2% win rate and just under half its runners placing from 99 runs at this course. At 125.6kg he gets in almost 7kg better than Too Dardy, and if the extra distance suits, that weight relief could be the difference in a tight finish. Correct Choice is the other one with claims — placed twice from four runs at the track, once by winning, and stablemate to Arcadia Park under trainer Michael Grantham, whose 34.9% place rate from 106 runners here is hard to ignore either.
This looks the best betting race on the card. Too Dardy to win, with Royal Toronado the each-way value if the weight swings his way.
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Race 5: Glenroy Chaff (Bm66+) — 3:51pm, 1094m
This one has the shape of a leaders’ race with only a couple of realistic front-runners, and whichever of them sustains the run beats the one who just sets it. Galway Shawl arrives with the strongest recent figures on paper — placed in four of her last five runs this campaign, three of them wins, for the small B V Watkins stable — but she’s never raced at Belmont Park, so there’s a first-look risk built into backing her. Under Influence removes that risk: seven runs at this track have produced a win among three placings, modest but earned across a real sample rather than a lucky afternoon.
Niccimota rates a mention too — placed in two of her last three runs at the track, one a win, for J P Taylor’s stable, which has runners across three of today’s eight races. Split The Gee and Too Darn Stormy are watch-only; neither has raced at the track and their recent formlines don’t offer enough to trust.
Under Influence for the placing, Galway Shawl if you want the each-way at a bigger number and don’t mind the unknown around the track. Small stakes only until one of them proves it here.
Race 6: Lawn Pride Australia (Bm66+) — 4:25pm, 1531m
The market will probably crowd around the bigger names in this field, and that’s where the opportunity sits with Truly Loyal. She’s won both of her starts at Belmont Park and comes into this off two wins from her last three, ridden by Chris Parnham, the track’s leading jockey on both counts, and trained by Michael Grantham, who saddled Correct Choice earlier and places better than a third of his runners here. Two runs is a data point rather than a specialist’s résumé, but pair it with the track’s best jockey and a trainer this reliable and the case writes itself.
Silent Diva is the more battle-tested danger: placed in four of six runs at Belmont Park, one a win, for one of the strongest stables on this card. Redback Flyer, with two wins from his last five, could beat better horses on his day but hasn’t raced at the track before.
Truly Loyal to win, with Silent Diva the each-way cover if the step up in grade asks too much of the lightly-raced type.
Race 7: Yes Loans (Rs1mw) — 5:00pm, 1312m
Mind Field and Marcos want to win this race in opposite ways. Mind Field has placed in four of his last five runs, twice by winning, and carries the same Ryan Hill colours that filled half the opening race, one of seven runners the stable sends around the track today. His profile is built on being there at the finish rather than leading all the way. Marcos is the grinder: placed in both of his Belmont Park runs, winning one, and placed three times from his last six for Luke Fernie, a trainer who places 38% of his runners at this track from 50 runners, well up on most of the competition here.
King’s Drama and Go Go Grommet both carry the C & M Gangemi colours, giving that stable two chances in a 12-horse field, while Hard Solo’s six runs at Belmont Park (no wins, three places) mark him as a professional placegetter rather than a winner.
If the tempo lets the on-pace types dictate, Mind Field’s finishing pattern gets first crack; if it turns into a war of attrition, Marcos measures up better. Win bet on Mind Field, save a little for Marcos in the exotics.
Race 8: Pps Group (Rs1mw) — 5:40pm, 1750m
Back To Bondi ends the card the way Too Dardy started the feature: as the horse with the deepest and most consistent body of course form. Four runs at Belmont Park have produced three placings, two of them wins, and the wider picture over the last three months backs it up — placed in five of his last seven runs, a 71% strike rate for the frame, twice by winning. Holly Nottle, on track for a full book of rides today, partners him, and T M Andrews’ stable places more than half its Belmont runners from 29 starts here.
Vexatious Rose is the one with the hottest recent figures: placed in five of her last six runs this term, twice by winning, though her only two runs at the track have produced just a single placing and no win yet. Statewide is the local fixture of this field — nine runs at Belmont Park for three placings and just the one win — reliable enough to keep collecting minor money without looking like a winning chance again soon.
Back To Bondi to win, Vexatious Rose the each-way risk if her recent trajectory finally clicks at this circuit.
Where the money goes
If these Belmont Park racing tips boil down to one card, here it is. Too Dardy is the NAP. Forget the topweight for a second and look at the pattern underneath it — a horse that’s placed in every single start over the last three months and does it at a track where his trainer already wins at nearly a quarter clip. That’s the best combination of course form, recent trajectory and trainer strength on the card.
The value sits one race earlier in the same event: Royal Toronado gets nearly 7kg off Too Dardy in the same field and arrives in career-best form for one of the deepest stables at this course. If the market prices him purely on his single, placed course run, he’ll be underrated.
For the banker, Back To Bondi’s seven-run recent sample and 71% strike rate for the frame make him the safest multi leg on the card. The best each-way credentials belong to Under Influence, who keeps hitting the placings at this track without ever quite getting there — reliable enough to trust for minor money.
The course angle worth carrying forward: Holly Nottle rides in all eight races today, and her 32.9% place rate from 164 Belmont Park rides says that workload isn’t just about keeping busy. If this becomes a regular booking pattern, she’s the name to watch every time this circuit fields a card.
Best bookmakers for today’s racing
Compare current markets before locking in any of the above — prices move quickly once fields firm up in the hour before the first race.
Frequently asked questions
What time does racing start at Belmont Park today?
The first race, the Ian Ashworth 80th Birthday Plate, jumps at 1:24pm, with eight races taking the card through to the last at 5:40pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Belmont Park today?
Chris Parnham leads the jockeys’ room on both counts among those with a genuine sample, winning 18.5% and placing 44.4% of his 108 rides at the track. Holly Nottle is the volume standout, riding in all eight races today off a 32.9% place rate from 164 rides. On the training side, G & A Williams sits on a 20.2% win rate from 99 runners, and MS J Erkelens backs Too Dardy at a 24% win rate from 25 runners here.
What are the best bets at Belmont Park today?
Too Dardy in race 4 is the strongest form case on the card — three wins and five placings from six runs at the track, with a perfect placing record across his last five starts. Back To Bondi in race 8 is the safest support play, with a 71% placing strike rate from his last seven runs.
Where can I find the best odds for Belmont Park races?
Markets for this meeting weren’t fully priced early enough today to compare bookmakers with confidence, so check current odds through the bookmaker list above before placing anything, particularly on shorter-priced runners like Too Dardy and Truly Loyal.
