Kembla Grange Racing Tips Sept 26 — Latham for the Double?
Belmont Park Racing Tips, Sept 26: Who’s Bent to Win?
Overview
Belmont Park’s Saturday fixture comes down to one race, and it’s worth the attention: seven runners line up in the Afgri Equipment (Rs1mw) at 12:54pm over 1094m, headlined by a topweight carrying nine kilograms more than anything else in the field. That’s the sort of number that usually scares punters off, but Who’s Bent walks in off the best trainer numbers at the track and a recent record that reads better than anyone else here. These Belmont Park racing tips work through why the weight probably doesn’t matter, why Lucky I Am keeps knocking on the door without breaking through, and where the money should land on a short but genuinely competitive card. One race, seven runners, and plenty to unpack before the gates open.
Reading the Belmont Park card
It’s a tight turf sprint-mile for a small field of seven, three-year-olds up against seasoned campaigners, and barriers that hand the speed to the runners drawn inside. Lucky I Am and Who’s Bent occupy gates one and two, which means the two runners with the strongest recent form also get first use of the fence — a genuine edge in a sprint this short, where ground lost early is rarely made up. Course form itself is thin across this line-up — only Lucky I Am has started at Belmont Park more than twice, so history at this specific track counts for less than the wider recent-form picture. Anyone chasing Belmont Park predictions built on hard numbers is better served looking at national form and connections than at course records that mostly run to a single data point, and that’s the approach this piece takes below.
The jockey numbers tell a clearer story. Lucy Fiore, booked for Melody Fair, leads every rider engaged today by some distance — a 15.45% win rate and a 39.84% place rate, built from 123 rides at Belmont Park rather than a handful of lucky ones. Nobody else in the colours today gets near that strike rate, though as the race breakdown below explains, the horse underneath her carries its own question marks.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Fiore | 123 | 19 | 49 | 15.45% | 39.84% |
| Jarrad Noske | 34 | 1 | 9 | 2.94% | 26.47% |
| Chanel Cooper | 86 | 5 | 21 | 5.81% | 24.42% |
| P Carbery | 73 | 5 | 17 | 6.85% | 23.29% |
| S O’Donnell | 102 | 5 | 23 | 4.90% | 22.55% |
| Jefferson Tsang | 65 | 5 | 14 | 7.69% | 21.54% |
| Holly Watson | 93 | 7 | 20 | 7.53% | 21.51% |
Trainers separate more cleanly still. Mitchell Pateman, who saddles up Who’s Bent, wins almost one in five runners he brings to Belmont Park and places 44% of them from 59 runs — that’s the best win rate of anyone with a runner today, and 59 runs is enough of a sample to trust it. Simon Miller isn’t far behind with Anaballistic in his stable.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Pateman | 59 | 11 | 26 | 18.64% | 44.07% |
| Simon Miller | 94 | 14 | 30 | 14.89% | 31.91% |
| MS A King | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14.29% | 28.57% |
| T M Andrews | 30 | 4 | 16 | 13.33% | 53.33% |
| J P Taylor | 51 | 4 | 17 | 7.84% | 33.33% |
| G C Ballantyne | 46 | 1 | 8 | 2.17% | 17.39% |
Ladbrokes Review [Updated March 2026] | Ladbrokes.com.au Pros & Cons
- Info Hub
- Mates Mode
Race-by-race
Race 1: Afgri Equipment (Rs1mw) — 12:54pm, 1094m
Who’s Bent carries 130kg, the biggest impost in the race by nine kilograms, and that number alone says the assessors rate this one the horse to beat. The recent form backs it up: a win and a further placing from the last three runs, with only one of those three finishing outside the money. Mitchell Pateman trains Who’s Bent, and Pateman is the standout conditioner among today’s stables — an 18.64% strike rate at this track built from 59 runners, not a short run of good luck. Holly Watson takes the ride from barrier two, a draw that should allow an easy cross into cover without any fuss. The only run at this specific track brought a fifth, so this isn’t a course specialist by any means, but the weight-for-rating logic and the recent trajectory both point the same way. If there’s a mark against the topweight, it’s that fifth-placed run here — though it came before the current form turned around.
Lucky I Am is the one who keeps turning up. Four runs at Belmont Park have produced three placings and not a single win, and the story repeats itself nationally — 80% of the last five runs have ended in the frame without ever breaking through. Chanel Cooper takes the ride from the rail draw, a gate that should suit a horse that races handy, and J P Taylor’s stable places a third of its runners at this track. If Lucky I Am is ever going to turn that consistency into a winning cheque, a small, uncomplicated field like this one is as good a chance as it will get. This is the each-way play, and worth using underneath in an exacta.
Further back in the market, Anaballistic and Eye Of The Sun both arrive unbeaten in limited recent racing — one run apiece in the past three months, and both of those runs were wins. Anaballistic’s came right here at Belmont Park. That’s a promising data point rather than an established trend on either count, but it’s worth noting Simon Miller sits second on today’s trainer table at 14.89% from 94 runners, and Anaballistic carries the lightest weight of the seven at 116.8kg — with a rating that light, the map through this field looks kind. Eye Of The Sun is just three years old, taking on winners and older campaigners well up in experience, and still has the form to match: the only run at Belmont Park was also a win. MS A King’s stable is thin on raw numbers, seven runners at the track, but a 14.29% win rate holds up against anyone else engaged today. Both are the sort of lightly-raced, in-form runner that can upset a more exposed favourite in a race like this.
Bosisto tells a similar story in miniature — runner-up on the only Belmont Park start, and unbeaten in two runs this campaign for a win and a placing. Jarrad Noske’s book at the track is modest (2.94% wins, 26.47% place from 34 rides), and G C Ballantyne’s trainer numbers here (2.17% wins from 46 runners) are the weakest on the card, which tempers the enthusiasm. Better used as exacta and trifecta support than backed with confidence to win.
Melody Fair gets the standout jockey booking — Lucy Fiore’s 15.45% win rate from 123 rides at Belmont Park is easily the best of any rider engaged today — but the horse itself hasn’t had a run captured in the past three months and finished third on the only look at this track. That’s a lot of question marks to carry into a seven-horse field, even with the right rider on top; treat this one as a watch rather than a play until fitness is better established. Storm Lord, the eight-year-old in the field, is up against it on every number available: one placing from the last two runs nationally and a well-beaten run on the only Belmont Park start. Watch race material, no bet.
Back Who’s Bent to win. Use Lucky I Am each-way and underneath in exotics, with Anaballistic the swing chance for anyone chasing a bigger price.
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Where the money goes
Who’s Bent is the play. Carrying 130kg would put most punters off, but a horse in this kind of recent form, trained by the best strike-rate stable engaged at Belmont Park today, earns the benefit of the doubt on weight alone. Win bet, and there’s no need to overthink it.
Lucky I Am is the value if the market prices this runner up as just another placegetter. Four placings from four course runs and 80% of the last five nationally is a genuine pattern, not a fluke — the only thing missing is a win. Odds weren’t locked in with the major bookmakers at the time of writing, so check the board before backing this one, but a horse that hits the frame this consistently is rarely poor each-way business in a field this small.
With only one race on the Belmont Park card today, there’s no multi to chase — just one clean opportunity to back the best number on the page and use the placegetter underneath. The repeatable course angle worth banking for next time this field resurfaces: Mitchell Pateman’s stable at Belmont Park (18.64% wins, 44% placed from 59 runners) is the standout conditioner on these numbers, and Lucy Fiore’s 15.45% strike rate makes her the jockey worth following regardless of which horse she’s aboard. If Pateman keeps training winners at this rate, he’ll be the first name worth checking every time Belmont Park comes around.
Best Bookmakers for Today’s Racing
Belmont Park odds move quickly on a short seven-runner field like this one, especially once early markets firm around the topweight. It’s worth comparing prices across two or three corporate bookmakers before staking anything meaningful — the gap between the best and worst price on a horse like Lucky I Am, which the market hasn’t fully worked out off a placing-heavy record, can be the difference between a break-even day and a winning one. New-account sign-up offers are also worth checking before your first bet of the day, since a same-race multi or a boosted price on Who’s Bent can add real value on top of the standard win odds. Compare current odds and sign-up offers before you commit your bankroll.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Belmont Park today?
Today’s card comes down to a single race, the Afgri Equipment (Rs1mw) over 1094m on turf, jumping at 12:54pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Belmont Park today?
Mitchell Pateman leads the trainers engaged today with an 18.64% win rate and a 44.07% place rate from 59 runners at the track, and he trains Who’s Bent in this race. Simon Miller is next best at 14.89% from 94 runners with Anaballistic. Lucy Fiore is the standout jockey booking, winning 15.45% of 123 rides at Belmont Park, clear of every other rider engaged today.
What are the best bets at Belmont Park today?
These Belmont Park racing tips make Who’s Bent the pick to win off a strong recent record and the best trainer numbers in the race. Lucky I Am, placed in three of the last four runs at this track, is the each-way and value option underneath.
Where can I find the best odds for Belmont Park races?
Odds weren’t locked in across the major bookmakers at the time of writing, so compare prices before betting. Checking two or three corporate bookmakers rather than taking the first number on offer is the difference in a field this competitive.
How many runners line up in today’s Belmont Park feature?
Seven go around in the Afgri Equipment (Rs1mw). Lucky I Am and Who’s Bent are drawn barriers one and two respectively, so the two most fancied runners both get to cross the field from handy gates.
