Overview
John Of Jane is the best bet on Sunday. It has been to Hobart twice and won both times, its whole career reads first, second, first, and it opens the Hobart card in a seven-runner sprint where nothing else has shown the same level.
These are three selections from three meetings: Hobart, Moe and Wyong. John Of Jane and the value pick have live prices. The quaddie horse, He’s Cool, did not: the Wyong market for its race was not open when this was written.
The best bet
John Of Jane, Hobart Race 1, 12:55, 1.18 with Bet Right.
The case is simple. Two starts at Hobart for two wins, and a career line of first, second, first. T Baker rides for Sigrid Carr over 1200m, and while John Of Jane carries top weight, it is the one horse in the Aintree Contracting Hcp (C2) that keeps finding the line at this track.
The danger is Geegeehailstorm, second on its only Hobart start, for S Gandy. Crystal Moonbeam has won one of four here and placed in another. Neither has shown what John Of Jane has. At 1.18 this is a horse to build a multi around rather than a stand-alone bet, and it is the most reliable leg on the whole day.
The value bet
Fear The Impact, Moe Race 2, 1:05, 4.60 with Bet Right.
The Law Somerville Industries Mdn Plate over 1100m has a market built around Blue Light Disco and Bemm River, and that leaves Fear The Impact at a price that looks generous. Its last four starts read 2-6-4-3, so it has finished fourth or better in three of them.
The connections are the bigger reason. Gavin Bedggood has trained five winners from eight runners at Moe, and J Mott has won on five of his 12 rides here. That is the strongest trainer and jockey at the track on the same horse in a maiden.
Bemm River is the danger: second at each of its last two and drawn in gate 2. Blue Light Disco has the form but jumps from barrier 17. Play Fear The Impact each-way.
The quaddie angle
He’s Cool, Wyong Race 5, 3:40.
Wyong’s quaddie runs from Race 5 to Race 8, and He’s Cool opens it. It has won three of its five starts at Wyong, the only horse on that card with real course numbers behind it, and its form line ends in a win. Over the past three months it has had two runs for a win and a placing.
William Stanley rides from gate 6 for M S Minervini in the Sublime Aluminium & Glass Somersby Sprint Provincial (Bm68) over 1000m. The danger is Escargoes from the Brad Widdup stable, two wins and two placings from its last four, with Dylan Gibbons aboard. Widdup has trained 13 winners from 46 runners at Wyong, so it is a serious opponent.
Anchor the first leg on He’s Cool and spread through the last three races, where the Wyong preview has no runner as strong.
How these were picked
All three come from the full previews for Sunday’s eight meetings: Donald, Geraldton, Hobart, Longreach, Moe, Strathalbyn, Wellington and Wyong. Warwick was abandoned and is not covered.
Price decided the close calls. Boomroux at Longreach (three wins and a second from four starts there), In Situ at Geraldton, Makdane in the Moe Cup, Hanuman at Wellington and Alpine Thunder at Hobart all have strong cases, but none of their races had a bookmaker market when this was written, so they missed out on a card that should carry real prices. For the value slot, Fierce Spirit at Hobart, also 9.00 with Unibet, came close, but Fear The Impact has the better connections behind it. He’s Cool gets the quaddie spot over the other anchors because its five Wyong starts are the deepest course record of any of them.