Overview
Youre Not The King is the best bet of the day. Two wins from two runs in the last 90 days, a light 53kg and barrier 2 in Race 2 at Flemington, with a live price of $2.60 with Ladbrokes. Of the horses with a market up, this is the one whose current form is hardest to fault.
That is three selections from one meeting, Flemington, out of the six we previewed today: the best bet, the value bet and the quaddie anchor. The best and value bets are priced. Proxima Dea, the quaddie anchor, runs in the Crown Oaks, and that market wasn’t open when this was written.
The best bet
Youre Not The King, Flemington Race 2, 1:35PM, 2.60 with Ladbrokes.
Youre Not The King has won both runs in the last 90 days, and the form line finishes with back to back wins. The weight drops to 53kg and the draw is barrier 2 in the Sharp Eit Subzero (Bm90) over 1400m. Rachel King rides for Bjorn Baker, who has trained three winners from 19 runners at Flemington.
There is no hidden value at the price, but this is the most likely winner on the card. Alabama Fox is the danger at $4.20 with Unibet, a winner and placed in both runs in the last 90 days for Zac Lloyd, though barrier 13 means more work to find cover. Win bet on Youre Not The King.
The value bet
Cute Girl, Flemington Race 1, 1:00PM, 15.00 with Bet Right.
Cute Girl has three wins and four placings from five runs in the last 90 days, and the last of them was a win. W Pike rides for Andrew Bobbin, and Pike has won five of his 27 rides at Flemington. She carries 59.5kg from barrier 9 in the Tcl Trophy (Bm70) over 1700m.
The market has Autumn Slide favourite at $4.80 with Bet Right after four placings from the last six starts without a win, and that is where the value comes from. Cute Girl has won three times in the same period and is priced like an outsider. Jenni You Think, placed at all three recent runs, is the danger at $6 with Unibet. Each-way on Cute Girl.
The quaddie angle
Proxima Dea, Flemington Race 8, 5:10PM.
Proxima Dea has won her last five starts, including all three runs in the last 90 days, for $1,497,000 in prizemoney. That is three times the earnings of the next best filly in the Crown Oaks, and every runner carries 56kg, so the weight doesn’t help anyone catch her. Race 8 is the third leg of the Flemington quaddie (Races 6 to 9), and this is the leg to take a single in.
The concern is barrier 19, with 17 left in the field, and Zac Lloyd has to decide early whether to push forward or drop back. Quick Finish, two wins and four placings from four recent runs for T & C Mcevoy, is the main danger. Around Proxima Dea, our preview has Our Justify, Big Rooster and Lofty Thoughts in Race 6, Sequinned and Scintillation in Race 7, and Ice Kool and Saluted in Race 9.
How these were picked
All three selections come from our full previews for Flemington, Gosford, Ipswich, Belmont Park, Gawler and Sapphire Coast. Where two horses were close, we chose the one with a live price.
Sass Appeal, the Flemington banker at $1.65 with Unibet, came closest to the best bet slot on four wins from six at the track, but has not won in four runs in the last 90 days, so Youre Not The King gets the nod. Showmara at Gosford, Canadian Fling at Ipswich, Cable Rock at Belmont Park, Win To Retire at Gawler and Christmas Star at Sapphire Coast all lead their meetings, but none of their races had a price when this was written. Logan Downs at $11 with Unibet in Race 1 at Ipswich was the other value option, but it has one run in the last 90 days, a second, against Cute Girl‘s three wins. No quaddie leg at any meeting was priced, so the slot goes to the strongest form on the day.