Kilmore Racing Tips Sept 28 — Form or Weight in the Bm56?
Grafton Racing Tips: Can M J Dunn’s Army Deliver?
Overview
M J Dunn has sent eight runners to Grafton today, and a trainer doesn’t flood a country card like that unless the numbers back him up. They do: 90 runners at this track have produced 21 winners and 53 placegetters for the stable, a 58.89% strike rate that most trainers would frame and hang on the wall. Pair him with A Mallyon, who rides three of those runners, and the partnership has combined for 10 wins from 24 runs together at Grafton — better than four in ten. That’s the thread running through these Grafton racing tips: a stable in career-best touch at its home track, headlined by a hat-trick winner stepping up in distance and a topweight having its first look at the circuit.
It’s an eight-race card on turf, first jump at 1pm and the last at 5:10pm, with a maiden-heavy middle stretch giving way to a genuinely competitive back end. Read on for the pick in every race, the numbers behind them, and where the value sits once the market opens up.
Reading the Grafton card
Course form is thin across several of today’s maidens, but there’s enough depth among the winners, placegetters and repeat performers to build a real picture. Eighteen of today’s runners have three or more starts at Grafton, twenty-one jockeys have ridden here at least five times, and thirty-three trainers carry a proper three-run sample at the track — enough in every column to filter out the noise.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| She’s A Dame | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 66.67% |
| Tara Koda | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Jennibelle | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 57.14% |
| Lolita | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| The Lupercal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| La Regina | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 33.33% |
| Patrioticintention | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 33.33% |
| Zucchero | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 33.33% |
Jennibelle is the one worth circling from that group — seven runs at the track and not a win among them, but the frame four times out of seven says she handles the circuit even if she can’t finish the job. Tara Koda’s numbers stack up just as well over a smaller sample and get their own airing later in the card.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin P Stanley | 14 | 5 | 9 | 35.71% | 64.29% |
| A Mallyon | 39 | 13 | 24 | 33.33% | 61.54% |
| Jasper Franklin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 12.5% | 50.0% |
| Benjamin Osmond | 13 | 2 | 6 | 15.38% | 46.15% |
| Archie MC Colm | 64 | 6 | 28 | 9.38% | 43.75% |
| Jett Newman | 37 | 6 | 16 | 16.22% | 43.24% |
Justin P Stanley tops that list on both counts and rides three today, including one for J D Shelton, who books him deliberately rather than as a matter of habit. A Mallyon isn’t far behind and gets the leg-up from M J Dunn three times this afternoon.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Campton | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Michael Freedman | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| M J Dunn | 90 | 21 | 53 | 23.33% | 58.89% |
| K A Lees | 12 | 4 | 7 | 33.33% | 58.33% |
| R J Knight | 16 | 3 | 8 | 18.75% | 50.0% |
| D B Campbell | 12 | 1 | 6 | 8.33% | 50.0% |
Adam Campton tops the trainer table on percentage — seven placings from ten runners is a serious return — but M J Dunn’s volume is the story of the day. No one else sends more than four to the track, and his numbers hold up at that scale rather than fading the way small-sample hot streaks usually do — exactly the kind of trend worth building today’s Grafton racing tips around.
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Race by race
Race 1: Graftontickets.Com.Au (Bm58) — 1:00pm, 2428m
Two horses split the vote over this 2428m staying test, and the case for each says something different about what you value in a race like this. Dipierdomenico goes out for R J Knight, who wins close to one in five runners he sends to Grafton and gets half of them into the money from sixteen runs at the track — a trainer form line built on volume, not a lucky month. B Looker takes the ride and adds a competent record of his own around this circuit. The one gap is Dipierdomenico’s own course experience, with just a single run and no placing to show for it, so this is a stable-and-rider play more than a proven-track one.
Lone Star Dream makes the opposite case. Eight runs in the past three months have brought four placings and no win, the profile of a horse who keeps arriving but hasn’t found the finish yet. Over this kind of distance that consistency counts, even without silverware attached, and trainer Allan Kehoe already has a win and a placing from two runs at the track.
Back Dipierdomenico for the win, and take Lone Star Dream each-way if the price allows it.
Race 2: Book A Christmas Party @ Crjc Mdn Plate — 1:35pm, 1100m
Maiden sprints like this one rarely hand out certainty, and this field of thirteen doesn’t change that. Nobody arrives with more than a placing or two behind them, so the signal here is in the bookings rather than the form. Justin P Stanley is the standout rider at Grafton this campaign and he’s aboard Parting The Seas for J D Shelton, a trainer with real volume at the track himself. That’s not an accidental pairing. It’s still a maiden field full of question marks, so treat this as a watch race with a small each-way interest in Parting The Seas rather than anything stronger.
Race 3: Crjc Agm 25 November Mdn Plate — 2:10pm, 1542m
Adam Campton doesn’t have a huge team at Grafton, but the hit-out rate is the best on the card — seven placings and three wins from ten runners, a 70% strike rate for hitting the frame across a real sample. Flying Vision carries those colours today, and while jockey MS G Cartwright is new to the track with only two rides, both have finished in the placings. That’s the pick.
Credibility is the one to worry about. She’s placed twice from three runs this campaign, and while her own Grafton form is unproven, K A Lees trains at a 33.33% win rate and 58.33% place rate from a dozen runners here, numbers matched by few others on this card, and Benjamin Osmond rides at a healthy clip locally too. If Flying Vision doesn’t handle the step up in grade as well as the numbers suggest, this is the one that beats her.
Flying Vision to win, Credibility the each-way alternative.
Race 4: Crjc Christmas Race Day 29 November Country Boosted (Bm66) — 2:45pm, 1210m
Dizzy Dee won on the only start she’s had at Grafton, which is a data point rather than a trend but a meaningful one given what surrounds it: Shane Everson has 32 runners’ worth of course history for a 12.5% win rate, and Jett Newman rides here often enough — 37 times — to know exactly where the speed map favours him. That combination, plus a horse who has already proven she handles the track, makes Dizzy Dee the one to beat.
The Lupercal is the each-way alternative, with two placings from four runs at Grafton and a trainer in D B Campbell who gets half his runners into the money from a dozen course starts. If the speed goes on hard early, she’s the type to find them out.
Win bet on Dizzy Dee, save some for The Lupercal in the placings.
Race 5: 100 Years Of Grafton Cwa Country Boosted Mdn Plate — 3:20pm, 1285m
This maiden field doesn’t give up much on first look, and most of the runners have raced at Grafton once or not at all. That leaves Jennibelle standing out almost by default: seven runs at the track, not a win among them, but four placings — she just keeps turning up in the finish without quite getting there. Archie MC Colm, aboard again today, has his own course numbers to match, placing in nearly 44% of his rides here across a big sample. Nobody else in this field brings anything close to that level of proven course form.
This isn’t a confident win play. Each-way is the way to use Jennibelle, backing the placing record rather than betting on the breakthrough finally arriving today.
Race 6: Team Aidan Markets @ Crjc 22 November Hcp (C2) — 3:55pm, 1292m
Why Wait is the best bet on the card. She’s undefeated in her one run at Grafton, and the past three months have brought a win and a placing from just two starts — a short but perfect resume. What lifts her above a simple good-form horse is the booking: M J Dunn and A Mallyon have combined for ten wins from 24 runners together at this track, a 41.67% win rate and a 62.5% placing rate that very few trainer-jockey pairings anywhere can match. That’s not a coincidence of one good day; it’s 24 runs of evidence. Add a light weight of 122.3kg for a lightly-raced three-year-old up against older, more experienced rivals, and the case writes itself.
Picupstixx is the one with the runs on the board to worry the market. Seven course starts have brought a win and two placings, and trainer Wayne S Lawson wins close to one in five runners he sends here. He’s the horse most likely to make Why Wait earn it rather than coast to the line.
Win bet on Why Wait. This is the one to build the card around.
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Race 7: The Kosciuszko 17 October Hcp (C2) — 4:35pm, 1761m
This is a contrast in profiles. Herald Angel carries top weight at 133.3kg and has never raced at Grafton, but he arrives with a win and two placings from his last three runs, and he’s from the same Dunn stable and Mallyon saddle that carried Why Wait’s case earlier on this card. The market will likely take that at face value.
Tara Koda is the one worth chasing instead. She’s the proven one at this track — five runs, a win and three placings, a 60% strike rate for hitting the frame — and she does it 12.1kg better off at the weights than Herald Angel. Justin P Stanley, the best-performed jockey at Grafton this campaign by both win and place rate, takes the ride for J D Shelton, and the pair have already combined for a win and two placings from four runs together here. Nationally over the past three months she’s produced two placings from five runs without quite winning, so the form hasn’t been flashy, but track specificity counts for something over 1761m, and a topweight with zero course runs is exactly the kind of favourite that value hunters should be leaning away from.
Tara Koda each-way is the play, with Herald Angel respected but not backed at short odds given he’s never tried the track.
Race 8: Tabulam Cup 3 October (Bm58) — 5:10pm, 1542m
The last race of the day is a proper form guide puzzle, with twelve runners and no standout course specialist among them. If there’s an edge, it’s K A Lees, whose 33.33% win rate and 58.33% place rate from a dozen Grafton runners is close to the best return of any trainer on the card. Stern Dispute carries those colours and gets the vote on that basis, even without much course history of his own.
Lolita is the each-way alternative, with a win and two further placings from four runs at Grafton — half her starts here have produced a frame finish, a return few in this field can match. Vendemmia, carrying topweight at 136.6kg, has managed a win and a placing from two starts here but that’s too thin a sample to lean on with that much weight in the saddle.
Small each-way interest in Stern Dispute and Lolita to close out the card; this isn’t one to bet with confidence.
Where the money goes
Here’s how today’s Grafton best bets line up, race by race and category by category.
NAP: Why Wait (Race 6, 3:55pm). The Dunn-Mallyon book at this track is the strongest single piece of evidence anywhere on the card, and she’s arrived on it in career-best touch.
Value: Tara Koda (Race 7, 4:35pm). Genuine course form and the meeting’s best jockey, up against a topweight having his first run around the circuit — if the market leans toward Herald Angel on stable reputation alone, Tara Koda drifts into each-way value.
Banker: Flying Vision (Race 3, 2:10pm). Adam Campton’s 70% place rate at Grafton is the single best return of any trainer running today, and that kind of consistency is exactly what a multi needs.
Each-way: Jennibelle (Race 5, 3:20pm). Four placings from seven course runs without a win is the definition of a place bet.
Course angle: M J Dunn. Eight runners on one card is a statement, and the stable’s numbers at Grafton — better than 58% into a place across 90 runners, with A Mallyon lifting that further when he’s in the saddle — back it up.
If Dunn keeps sending them north at this rate, he’ll be the name to track at every Grafton meeting from here.
Best bookmakers for today’s racing
For the best Grafton odds and markets on today’s card, compare the options below before placing a bet.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Grafton today?
The first race jumps at 1:00pm, with all eight races run through to a 5:10pm finish.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Grafton today?
Justin P Stanley leads the jockey ranks with five wins and nine placings from fourteen rides, a 35.71% strike rate. M J Dunn, who saddles a card-high eight runners today, leads the trainers with 21 wins from 90 course runs, a 58.89% place rate.
What are the best bets at Grafton today?
Why Wait in Race 6 headlines our Grafton predictions, backed by a Dunn-Mallyon partnership record of ten wins from 24 runs together at this track. Tara Koda in Race 7 rates the value alternative on the strength of her own course record.
Where can I find the best odds for Grafton races today?
Check the bookmaker comparison table above before placing any bets, so you’re getting the best available price on each selection.
Is there a standout trainer running multiple horses at Grafton today?
Yes — M J Dunn has eight runners across the card, headlined by Why Wait in Race 6 and a three-pronged team in Race 7’s Kosciuszko heat.
Responsible gambling
Odds and markets can change quickly, so always check the latest prices with your bookmaker before betting. These Grafton racing tips are provided for informational purposes and don’t guarantee any outcome.
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