Gold Coast Racing Tips Sept 26 — Can Five Of Us Win?
Longreach Racing Tips Sept 26 — Olzard’s Course Edge?
Overview
Nikki Olzard doesn’t need a big book of rides at Longreach to make her presence felt. She wins a third of everything she sits on at this track and gets more than three quarters of her mounts into the money, and today she’s on Fyansford Flyer for trainer H C Forster, a stable she has combined with for nine placings from nine course rides together. That partnership is the standout line on a card that, unusually, gives us just one race to work with. These Longreach racing tips cover the Thynne Macartney Maiden Plate in full – the form, the course stats worth trusting, and where the value sits in a competitive eight-horse maiden over 1312m on dirt.
One race is a smaller canvas than usual, so this piece goes deeper on the field in front of us rather than spreading thin across a full card. It’s a 1312m maiden on dirt for eight acceptors, three and four-year-olds mostly, with one scratching taking the field to seven. Every stat below comes from today’s racecard or from course, jockey and trainer data pulled specifically for this meeting – nothing here is guessed, and where the sample is too small to trust, that gets said plainly rather than dressed up as a trend.
Reading the Longreach card
Course form for the runners themselves is thin. Only Simply Smashing shows up in the course figures with a run at Longreach, and it’s a single outing – sixth on debut at the track – so there’s no pattern to lean on there, and no other runner in the maiden has a recorded start at this circuit. That’s normal for a maiden field and not worth manufacturing a story around. Where the numbers do mean something is jockeys and trainers, who between them carry a genuine sample size at this course.
Five riders in the maiden clear the five-ride threshold that makes course strike rates worth citing, and the gap between the top and bottom of that group is stark. Olzard leads it comfortably, R Faehr is the volume rider with the deepest sample of anyone in the race, and Raul Silvera Olivera sits in the middle on a smaller but still usable book of rides. S Galvin and J Rudd both have plenty of rides here but little to show for them, which matters for the two runners they’re on today.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikki Olzard | 18 | 6 | 14 | 33.3% | 77.8% |
| R Faehr | 34 | 7 | 21 | 20.6% | 61.8% |
| Raul Silvera Olivera | 12 | 3 | 5 | 25.0% | 41.7% |
| S Galvin | 25 | 2 | 5 | 8.0% | 20.0% |
| J Rudd | 28 | 2 | 3 | 7.1% | 10.7% |
The trainer numbers tell a similar story about depth of experience at the track. All four trainers represented in the maiden have well over the three-runner minimum needed to trust a percentage, with David Rewald and H C Forster the pick of them on place strike rate.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Rewald | 31 | 6 | 13 | 19.4% | 41.9% |
| H C Forster | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16.7% | 38.9% |
| P W O’Toole | 25 | 4 | 8 | 16.0% | 32.0% |
| Maree Pitman | 13 | 1 | 2 | 7.7% | 15.4% |
P W O’Toole actually has the biggest hand in the race on paper with three entries – Bel Song, Graphien and Loquito – though Loquito has since been scratched, leaving him with two runners and a modest course strike rate to back them with. A trainer fielding multiple runners in a maiden usually means he rates one above the other, and the market will likely tell that story better than the numbers can. Forster’s figures get more interesting when you isolate his booking of Olzard specifically, which is where the real edge in this race lives – a stable that keeps putting its best rider up when it counts is a pattern worth following, not just noting.
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The Thynne Macartney Maiden Plate
Race 1: Thynne Macartney Mdn Plate – 1:22pm, 1312m
Fyansford Flyer is the horse the market has to respect. He’s placed in each of his past three runs and hasn’t finished worse than third in that stretch, and today he gets Nikki Olzard, who wins a third of her rides at Longreach and has been in the placings on nearly four out of every five. Zoom in further and the Forster–Olzard partnership specifically has produced three wins and seven places from nine rides together at this track – that’s a real sample, not a lucky run, and it includes a winner as recently as mid June. A maiden that keeps hitting the frame without breaking through is exactly the type this combination has cashed in on before, and there’s nothing in the barrier draw or the weights to suggest today is different.
Coronation Day is the one asking the more interesting question. His last two runs both produced seconds after a string of thirds and fourths earlier in the prep – form that’s building, not fading – and his 90-day figures back it up: five runs, three placings, an average finishing position of 2.0. He also draws barrier one, which at worst keeps him out of traffic in a maiden field that includes a couple of one-paced types and should suit a horse who’s shown he can find the line without needing cover. Trainer David Rewald and jockey Raul Silvera Olivera have combined for two wins and three places from five rides together at Longreach, a partnership that meets the bar for genuine course form and has produced two winners at the track in the past six weeks, albeit with other horses. If Fyansford Flyer gets outsprinted in the run to the line, Coronation Day is the one most likely to be there to pounce.
Bel Song is the each-way interest. She’s yet to win in seven starts but has placed twice from her last five runs and gets the best-sampled jockey in the race in R Faehr, whose 34 rides at Longreach have produced a place better than three times in every five. A seven-year-old still finding a maiden win isn’t an exciting story, but that kind of course book on the saddle can drag an each-way price into the frame even when the horse’s own recent figures – one placing from her last three runs – don’t inspire much confidence on their own.
The rest are harder to trust with real money. Prince Sevres carries more weight than every other runner and his recent figures – a string of finishes in the minor placings and worse – don’t suggest he’s the one to overcome it. Graphien and Simply Smashing are both around the place mark without threatening to win, and Miss Anchor, a lightly weighted three-year-old filly, has raced once for a seventh – too thin a sample to build a case either way, good or bad. None of these change the shape of the race; over a genuine 1312m trip on dirt, the finish looks like it’s between the top three, and the one who can sustain the longest run from the back straight should get there first.
Win bet on Fyansford Flyer, with Coronation Day covered each way. If the tempo lets Olzard get her horse into a rhythm without being niggled along early, this looks like the day the placings turn into a win.
The plays
Longreach only gives us the one race today, so every angle below comes from the same field, argued from a different seat.
NAP: Fyansford Flyer (1:22pm). Three straight placings, and the rider who owns this track’s numbers more than anyone else in the field currently aboard. Odds TBC – no market was live at the time of writing, so check current prices before backing.
Value: Coronation Day. Two seconds on the trot, a trainer–jockey combination with two course wins from five rides together, and the rail draw to boot. Odds TBC.
Banker: Fyansford Flyer to place is the safest single leg for a multi – he hasn’t missed the frame in three runs and the jockey booking supports it again today.
Each-way: Bel Song, on the back of R Faehr’s course numbers rather than her own recent formline, which is the weaker part of her case.
Course angle: Nikki Olzard at Longreach, full stop. A third of her rides here win and almost four in five place, and when Forster legs her up specifically the numbers get stronger again. Worth following that combination the next time it shows up on a Longreach card, not just today.
Forster keeps putting Olzard on his better types at this track, and until that stops working there’s no reason to bet against it.
Best bookmakers for today’s racing
No bookmaker odds were live for the Thynne Macartney Maiden Plate at the time of writing, so treat any prices you see closer to the jump as the real market rather than anything quoted here. Compare a spread of firms before betting – a placegetter like Coronation Day is exactly the type of runner where the gap between the best and worst price on offer can be the difference between a winning and losing bet, and a small-field maiden at a regional track like this is where that gap tends to be widest.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Longreach today?
There’s a single race on the card, the Thynne Macartney Maiden Plate, which jumps at 1:22pm over 1312m on the dirt.
Why is there only one race at Longreach today?
Today’s meeting is a light one – just the Thynne Macartney Maiden Plate is carded, with eight acceptors and one scratching (Loquito) leaving seven runners to go around.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Longreach today?
Nikki Olzard leads the jockeys booked for today’s race with 6 wins from 18 rides at the track, a 33.3% strike rate, and R Faehr has the deepest sample at 34 rides for 21 places. Among trainers, David Rewald (6 wins from 31 runs) and H C Forster (6 from 36) have the best place strike rates of the four represented.
What are the best bets at Longreach today?
Fyansford Flyer is the pick of the race off three straight placings and the booking of Nikki Olzard, whose partnership with trainer H C Forster has produced three wins and seven places from nine rides together at this track. Coronation Day, on the back of two consecutive seconds, is the value alternative.
Where can I find the best odds for Longreach races?
Check the bookmaker comparisons above closer to race time, since no firm had a market up for the Thynne Macartney Maiden Plate when this was written – a small-field maiden at a course like Longreach is exactly the kind of race where prices can vary meaningfully between bookmakers.
