Kembla Grange Racing Tips Aug 29: Can Latham Strike Again?
Springsure Racing Tips Aug 29 — She Smashes Again?
She Smashes has won her last two starts, and the barrier trials didn’t need to tell anyone twice: Bevan Johnson is sending a three-strong team to Springsure today, with the same rider, Jason Miller, engaged across all three. That’s the sort of stable signal that’s worth more than any single stat on a card this light on course history. Springsure racing tips for today lean on exactly that kind of reading, because the data cupboard here is close to bare, just three runners in the entire field carry any recorded course form. Five races go around on the turf, headlined by the Springsure Cup, and what follows is a race-by-race form read built from recent runs, prizemoney trends and the handful of numbers that actually mean something.
Springsure – the setup
There isn’t much of a going report to lean on here and the track data is thin across the board: of 36 individual horses racing today, only three, Just Super, Gigi Fille and Pampuni, have ever started at Springsure before, and each has exactly one run on the board. That’s not enough for a percentage on any of them; call it what it is, a single data point each. Just Super won that lone start, Pampuni placed in his, and Gigi Fille finished well beaten in hers. Worth knowing, not worth building a case around.
The trainers’ side of the ledger is more useful. MS G Bell has sent ten runners through Springsure and returned two winners and five placegetters, a 20% strike rate with runners hitting the frame half the time. She saddles five runners today, including three in the Open Handicap alone. W P Baker has had five runners at the track without a win but with two placings, and R B Williams is 0 from 3. On the jockey side, C McIver and W G Satherley have both managed exactly one placing from five rides here, a fair sign this circuit doesn’t hand out easy minor money.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS G Bell | 10 | 2 | 5 | 20% | 50% |
| W P Baker | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 40% |
| R B Williams | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
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With course form this scarce, the more reliable signal today comes from recent form away from Springsure, and that’s where the analysis below is doing most of its work.
Race by race
Race 1: Hcp (C3) – 1:30PM, 1094m
Lunar Eight has been the model of consistency without quite sealing the deal: four places from his last five runs, an average finishing position of 2.8, and he shoulders the topweight in this field, usually a sign the handicapper rates him above his rivals despite the missing win. His only blip in that run was an eighth, sandwiched between placings either side. That profile says each-way watch rather than must-have winner, especially carrying that much weight against a field that’s largely lighter.
Suisse Scandal is the one to watch as a spoiler. His card reads a win three starts back, a minor placing after that, and a competitive fourth last time out, the kind of runner who keeps finding support without fully cashing in. If the home turn splits the leaders, he’s the type to be finishing over the top of them. Sweet About Me also deserves a mention purely on where her line is heading, thirds either side of a fifth in her last three clean runs after a rough start to the campaign, even if her overall average position (5.6 across five runs) says she’s not there yet.
Each-way cover on Lunar Eight, with Suisse Scandal the each-way alternative if the price is right. Not a race to go in strong on either side.
Race 2: Mdn Plate – 2:15PM, 1203m
Can anyone actually be trusted here? Every runner in this maiden has a wrinkle. Listing Capital’s line has gone the wrong way three runs running, ninth to fourth to fifth to sixth. Celtic Light was in the money two runs back and has since fallen away. Panzer Ready and Show Me The Dough both arrive without a recent form line worth reading. The two with something to hang onto are Willbeking, who has closed with a fifth, a third and a fourth across his last three, and Queen Of Light, whose four-last-start followed a poor run rather than continuing one.
If forced, Willbeking on the strength of that minor placing two back, but this is a watch race more than a betting one. No strong view, small stakes only if you’re playing at all.
Race 3: Open Hcp – 3:00PM, 1203m
Two horses arrive at this race carrying real form, and they couldn’t read more differently. She Smashes has won back to back, and won four of her past six starts overall, two wins and two placings from her last four runs, finishing an average of 2.75 across that run. She’s also the lightest-weighted runner in the field, which matters when a horse this in-form hasn’t drawn the handicapper’s full attention yet. The Squire counters with a different kind of reliability: a win and four placings from his last five starts, an 80% strike rate for hitting the frame, and he’s out of MS G Bell’s in-form Springsure stable, the trainer with two winners and five placings from ten runners at this track. Bell has three runners in this race alone.
She Smashes grinds out wins from the front or one off it; The Squire has been the horse who keeps arriving just after the leaders have used themselves up. Whichever shape the tempo takes decides it. Just Super rates a mention too, purely because he’s one of only three runners on the entire card with any course history here, and it reads well: he won on his only start at Springsure, even if his three runs this campaign (one placing) haven’t matched that level since.
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Back She Smashes to win. The Squire is the each-way danger if the pace sets up his grinding finish rather than her forward one, and Just Super is worth a place in exotics for the course form alone.
Race 4: Hcp (55) – 3:50PM, 1531m
This one sets up as a genuine tempo test over the mile-and-a-bit trip. Panda Drum has been building nicely, a fifth, a third and then a win last start, the clearest upward trajectory of any runner in the race, and stepping up to 1531m looks to suit a horse getting stronger as his runs go on. Prince Carlos is the one running him closest on paper, a seventh, a fourth and a minor placing across his last three, trending the right way at the right time. Pampuni managed a placing on his only previous run at this track, useful context rather than a reason to back him outright, and Gigi Fille carries that lone, distant course run into today’s field, a mark against her chances regardless of anything else in her form.
Win bet on Panda Drum, with Prince Carlos the each-way cover if the tempo doesn’t suit the improver’s finishing burst.
Race 5: Springsure Cup (Bm65) – 4:30PM, 1531m
Bevan Johnson isn’t sending a runner to Springsure today, he’s sending three, and Shoalwater Bay is the best of them by some margin. Two wins from her last four starts, five runs this campaign for a 60% place strike rate and a 2.2 average finish, she’s the most credentialed runner in the Cup by a distance. The jockey-trainer combination of Jason Miller and Johnson isn’t prolific together, just one winner from 26 runs, but ten of those runs have hit the frame, and more to the point, Shoalwater Bay’s own recent form stands on its own regardless of what the stable’s broader numbers say.
All Business is the each-way threat, a placing either side of an unplaced run in her last three starts, the kind of line that can produce a minor placing without needing much luck. Born Fearless closed out his last start with a placing too after a middling run of results before it. Neither looks capable of running down Shoalwater Bay in a genuine test, but both are the sort that pick up minor money.
Win bet on Shoalwater Bay, and she’s the one for the multi if you’re chaining Springsure results into a bigger bet today.
The plays
NAP: She Smashes (Race 3, 3:00PM). Back to back wins, the lightest weight in her field, and a stable sending three runners to the track today. If there’s one bet to build around, it’s this one.
Value: Panda Drum (Race 4, 3:50PM). A horse getting better with every run, stepping up in trip at a point in her campaign where that looks like exactly what she needs, and largely overlooked next to the bigger names elsewhere on the card.
Banker: Shoalwater Bay (Race 5, 4:30PM). Two wins in four runs and the standout form line in the Cup make her the safest single leg for a multi today.
Each-way: Lunar Eight (Race 1, 1:30PM). Four places from five runs and topweight in his race says he’s rated above his rivals even without a win to show for it.
Course angle: MS G Bell. Five runners on the card, three of them in the one race, and a Springsure record of two wins and five placings from ten runners. She’s the trainer to track every time Springsure comes around.
Keep an eye on how the Bevan Johnson team performs as a unit today. Three runners from one stable at a single meeting is a statement, and if Shoalwater Bay backs it up with a third Cup-class run, he’ll be the trainer to watch the next time Springsure fields a card like this.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Springsure today?
The first race, the Hcp (C3), jumps at 1:30PM, with five races on the card finishing with the Springsure Cup at 4:30PM.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Springsure today?
MS G Bell leads the trainer numbers at the track, two wins and five placings from ten runners for a 50% place strike rate, and she has five runners on today’s card. Course jockey stats are thin, C McIver and W G Satherley have each managed one placing from five rides here.
What are the best bets at Springsure today?
She Smashes is the standout, unbeaten in her last two starts heading into the Open Handicap. Shoalwater Bay, with two wins from her last four runs, is the pick of the Springsure Cup.
Where can I find the best odds for Springsure races?
Bookmaker odds weren’t available for this meeting at the time of writing; check the offer comparison links on this page closer to raceday for live prices.
Is there reliable course form to lean on at Springsure?
Barely. Only three runners across the entire card have raced at the track before, each with a single run recorded. Today’s picks are built mostly on recent form, class and stable signals rather than Springsure-specific history.
