Grafton Racing Tips: Can M J Dunn's Army Deliver?
Tatura Racing Tips Sep 29 — Can Pomah Deliver For O’Brien?
Tatura Racing Tips Sep 29 — Can Pomah Deliver For O’Brien?
Overview
D T O’Brien has sent five runners to Tatura and walked away with four placings from them — a rare thing at a track like this, where most of today’s field is having its first look at the place. That record puts Pomah front and centre in race five, but he’s not the only story on an eight-race card that runs from a maiden field of thirteen debutant-heavy three-year-olds through to a proper Tatura Cup with fifteen runners lining up. These Tatura racing tips walk through all eight races on the turf, weigh the thin course-form picture against recent formlines and race shape, and land on a card built around one horse we’re prepared to back with real confidence and a few more we think the market hasn’t quite worked out yet. Read on for the pick in every race, the numbers behind them, and where the value sits.
The Tatura setup today
Tatura’s turf circuit carries all eight races today, from three-year-old maidens through to a Bm56 Cup and a sprint to close out the card. Course form is thin across the board — of the 110 individual runners engaged today, only ten have ever started at Tatura before, and every one of those ten has exactly one run here. That’s a data point on each horse, not a trend, so the more reliable signal today comes from trainer patterns, recent form and how each race is likely to be run rather than from course specialists that simply don’t exist yet on this card.
Trainers tell a clearer story. Four handlers have sent three or more runners to the track, and the spread between them is worth knowing before the first race:
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D T O’Brien | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Olivia Osborne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| C J Davis | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Ben Brisbourne | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
D T O’Brien’s record stands out — an 80% place rate from five runners is a real number, not a small-sample guess, and it’s the strongest piece of quantifiable course form on the entire card. Olivia Osborne isn’t far behind and has two runners on today’s program in Deadly Devil and Royal Rhino. C J Davis and Ben Brisbourne have volume at the track without much to show for it yet.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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Race-by-race
Race 1: Shepparton Club Mdn Plate — 13:30, 1203m
Japanese Moka is the one worth remembering from a field of thirteen first starters and lightly raced types. She’s had one run for one placing, finishing second on debut under Patrick Moloney for trainer M M Laurie, and that’s about as strong a form line as anyone in this race can offer. Court Jester ran on for fourth in his only start and carries the small in-form signal of trainer Craig Weeding, who won with his only Tatura runner to date — though with just one run behind that stat, it says Weeding can get one home here, not that he will again today. Firm’n’high has raced four times for a best of fourth and looks the each-way threat if Japanese Moka’s debut form doesn’t stretch out over 1203m. Small stake on Japanese Moka to win, and watch the market for support before committing more.
Race 2: Liam Howley Racing Mdn Plate — 14:00, 1203m
Eighteen runners make this one of the toughest reads on the card, and with a field this size, tempo and barrier luck will matter as much as raw ability. Snitzel Tycoon is the one to note on the figures alone — four runs, four places, drawn from barrier three under Zoe Waller — the model of consistency without quite finding the winner’s stall yet. Fully Funded has been competitive too, running 2-6-3-3 across her last four starts. Honestly, a maiden this size with debutants scattered through it is hard to have a strong view on. If forced, Snitzel Tycoon on the strength of that unbroken run of places, but this is closer to a watch race than a confident bet.
Race 3: Hygain Mdn Plate — 14:30, 1750m
Who I Think I Am grinds; Style Guide has the course experience. Carleen Hefel’s mount has placed twice from her past three runs, finishing second, second and fourth, and stepping out to 1750m suits a filly who looks to be finding a staying pattern under trainer C Maher. Style Guide is the one with actual Tatura runs on the board — placed second on her only visit here, a genuine data point in a race where almost nobody else can claim one. She’s up in distance too, and the mature-mare profile says she’s better watched than backed with real confidence today. The Cellist and Just Basil both have claims without doing enough to force their way into calculations. Who I Think I Am to win, with Style Guide the each-way alternative if the market drifts her way.
Race 4: Kevin Hicks Real Estate Hcp (C1) — 15:00, 1586m
Lisa Whelan hasn’t started State Of Affairs inside the past 90 days, which tells its own story — this is a fresh, spelled runner stepping back in off a formline that read 2-4-2-2 before a win, the finish that sent her for the break. That kind of trajectory into a spell is usually a sign the stable thinks there’s more to come, and a trainer rarely freshens a horse that’s going backwards. Baganov is the sharper form runner in the race on paper, with a win two starts back and a formline of 1-6-3-5-3 that keeps him competitive under Jackson Radley for Nick Ryan. Isalot and Mahmudah both have place claims without matching either of the top two on recent figures. State Of Affairs each-way, first-up query and all, with Baganov the more straightforward form pick if the fitness question worries you.
Race 5: Bet365 Bet Boost (Bm56) — 15:30, 1586m
Pomah is the pick of the card for us, and the case runs deeper than one stat. D T O’Brien has sent five runners to Tatura for an 80% place rate — genuine course form, not a two-run guess — and his broader partnership with jockey Damien Thornton runs to 39 rides together for a 20.5% strike rate, with a win as recently as late August. Pomah adds his own piece of the puzzle: the one Tatura start he’s had ended in a placing, and he’s unbeaten for a place across his last two runs overall, including a win. Spex is the danger, riding modest improvement with a third and then a win in his past two starts for Aaron Laing, and he’ll be around the mark if Pomah’s finish doesn’t arrive as expected. Queen Amanjena also carries a course placing from her single Tatura visit. This is our best bet of the day: win bet on Pomah, confident enough in the case to make him the anchor of any multi.
Race 6: Bet365 Tatura Cup (Bm56) — 16:00, 1586m
Does Rich King’s recent trend hold up as the grade steps into cup company? The M M Laurie runner has been building nicely — a fourth, a third and then a win across his last three starts, a formline of 3-5-4-3-1 that reads like a horse finding his best form at the right time of year. The catch is that M M Laurie’s own Tatura record, with two runners at the track, shows neither has hit the frame, so the stable isn’t the source of confidence here; the horse’s own recent figures are. Okeah is running the closest parallel story, resuming with a sixth, following it with a fifth, and then breaking through last start under Cian Macredmond for trainer W Morrissey — an improving pattern worth respecting in a race this deep. Savethebesttillast adds an interesting wrinkle: her single trip to Tatura ended in a placing, and her recent figures of 4-2-2 show she keeps finding the frame even without winning, which makes her a durable each-way watch rather than a throwaway. Annotate and Immortalised both have the ability to feature without offering quite the same weight of recent evidence. With fifteen runners and a wide spread of recent form, this looks the most competitive heat on the card and the best one to bet with some depth. Rich King to win, Okeah for the exacta, and Savethebesttillast covered for place money if you’re playing wider.
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Race 7: Carlton Draught (Bm56) — 16:30, 1203m
Sheanadh looks underpriced for what she’s shown lately — an eighth and then a win in her past two runs, and the win came with enough authority that connections look happy to test her again at this level under M W Walker. If the market hasn’t caught up to that formline, there’s value in backing her regardless of what price she opens at. Lujaego is the more battle-hardened alternative, with a form figure of 124723 across his last six that shows he’s rarely far away, and he adds the small plus of course experience most of this field lacks. Sugar Schnapps is another placegetter worth a mention but hasn’t raced with the same spark since his last win. Sheanadh to win, Lujaego as the save.
Race 8: Monfoods (Bm56) — 17:00, 1094m
Simply Luscious sprints; most of this field grinds. Two wins from her past three runs, with a placing in the third, gives her the standout formline of the race under trainer Nathan Hobson, and dropping back to 1094m plays to a horse who looks to want the race over sooner rather than later. Hells Son is the each-way risk to her, third last start after a win two runs back, and he’ll get every chance if the speed collapses in front of him. Please Me Do has been building steadily too, an eighth, a seventh and then a third across his last three, but he’s yet to show the turn of foot Simply Luscious has produced twice in three runs. Cumboogle’s single Tatura visit also ended in the placings, which adds another line of interest without forcing her way past the top two. Win bet on Simply Luscious to close out the card.
Where the money goes
NAP: Pomah (race 5, 3:30pm) is our best bet of the day. The trainer numbers do the heavy lifting — an 80% place rate from five Tatura runners for D T O’Brien, backed by a long-running partnership with jockey Damien Thornton that’s produced a win as recently as last month — and Pomah’s own record adds a horse that hasn’t missed a place in his last two runs.
Value: Snitzel Tycoon (race 2, 2:00pm) hasn’t broken through yet, but four runs for four places says the win is coming, and a maiden field this size rarely prices that kind of consistency correctly.
Banker: Rich King (race 6, 4:00pm) for the multi players — his recent trend of 3-5-4-3-1 is the most reliable formline in the deepest race on the card.
Each-way: Who I Think I Am (race 3, 2:30pm) hits the frame regularly without needing to lead the market, the classic each-way type.
Course angle: follow Olivia Osborne when she sends runners to Tatura — a 66.7% place rate from three starters, and she has two runners on today’s card in Deadly Devil and Royal Rhino.
If O’Brien keeps stacking up placings at this clip, he’ll be the name worth following every time Tatura racing tips get written for this track.
Best bookmakers for today’s Tatura racing
Shopping the odds is part of getting full value from today’s card, especially once a runner drifts or firms after tips like these go up. Here’s where to find current markets for the meeting.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Tatura today?
First race at Tatura, the Shepparton Club Mdn Plate, jumps at 1:30pm, with eight races running through to the Monfoods (Bm56) at 5pm.
Who are the top trainers at Tatura today?
D T O’Brien leads the way on course figures, placing four of his five runners at Tatura for an 80% place rate, and he saddles up Pomah on today’s card. Olivia Osborne isn’t far behind at 66.7% from three runners, with Deadly Devil and Royal Rhino both racing today.
What are the best bets at Tatura today?
Pomah in race five is our best bet, backed by O’Brien’s course record and a placing in each of his past two runs. Snitzel Tycoon in race two is the value option after four straight placings without a win.
Where can I find the best odds for Tatura races?
Odds move throughout the day, so it pays to compare markets before you bet — the bookmaker list above is a good starting point for today’s Tatura odds.
Gamble responsibly
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