Newcastle Racing Tips 1 Aug 2026 — can Quinton strike again?
Flemington Racing Tips 1 Aug 2026 — can Our Chief finally land it?
There’s one horse on this Flemington card that keeps walking you right up to the window and then stopping just short: Our Chief. Five runs at headquarters, four times in the money, and he’s drawn to get the run of the race again. The question is simple: does he turn those near-misses into a win, or do we keep getting paid the place dividend and living with it?
Two races only today, both on turf, and both with very different problems to solve: a staying handicap where the tempo will matter more than the map, and a sharp 3YO scamper where a couple of lightly raced types can improve a length just by turning up. These Flemington racing tips focus on what’s repeatable: who handles the track, who’s trending the right way, and which setups look most forgiving if the race doesn’t go to script.
Flemington — the setup
We’ve got limited exposed course form across today’s fields. In the staying race a few have been here often enough to trust the pattern, but the 3YO sprint is mostly one-visit stuff, so I’m leaning harder on profile, barrier, weight and intent.
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| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Chief | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 80% |
| Jockey | Rides | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabez Johnstone | 18 | 6 | 9 | 33.33% | 50% |
| D W Stackhouse | 45 | 4 | 19 | 8.89% | 42.22% |
| Emily Pozman | 18 | 2 | 7 | 11.11% | 38.89% |
| Luke Cartwright | 74 | 11 | 25 | 14.86% | 33.78% |
| L Nolen | 30 | 2 | 10 | 6.67% | 33.33% |
| Trainer | Runners | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D T O’Brien | 42 | 8 | 19 | 19.05% | 45.24% |
| C Maher | 109 | 17 | 40 | 15.60% | 36.70% |
| P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 54 | 7 | 20 | 12.96% | 37.04% |
| T & C Mcevoy | 26 | 3 | 12 | 11.54% | 46.15% |
| J D Sadler | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33.33% | 66.67% |
Race-by-race Flemington predictions
Race 1: Tab We’re On (Bm84) — 12:15, 2756m
The shape of this is a stayer’s grind, and I want the horse that’s both fit and positioned to strike before the sprint-lane lottery. I’m with Nearco Frod. The formline says he’s a horse going the right way (9-3211), and the stable has him humming: over his last 90 days he’s gone to the races four times for two wins and hasn’t missed the money. That’s a proper rolling profile, not a flash-in-the-pan run.
From gate 4, B Shinn can keep it simple, land in the first half, and make the others chase from the 700m rather than waiting for a miracle gap late. At this trip, that matters. A few of these look like they’ll be happy to outstay a slowly-run affair, but Nearco Frod is the one I trust to make it a staying test.
The danger is the obvious one: Our Chief. He’s a real Flemington performer now on volume, with five course runs and four placings, and barrier 2 gives him every chance to stalk and pounce. The worry for backers is that he can find one better again if it turns into a sit-and-sprint late.
Play: Win bet Nearco Frod. Small saver exacta Nearco Frod and Our Chief if you’re protecting the “Flemington place horse” scenario.
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Race 2: Jockeys Celebration Day Sprint — 12:50, 1094m
The market usually overreacts to the shiny “1” next to a lightly raced 3YO, but this is where I’m happy to lean into it. Flywire looks the right type for a Flemington short-course dash: two starts for a win and a second (71), drawn gate 2 to be in the first four without spending, and handled by D W Stackhouse</strong who hits the frame a bit over two-fifths of the time at this track on a meaningful sample of rides.
The other piece I like is the race composition. There’s enough speed drawn around him that he won’t need to lead to win, but he also won’t get shuffled back to last and asked to sprint past the lot. In races like this, I want a horse with multiple ways to win, not one that needs the Red Sea to part.
Rubare is the danger because the form is trending to a peak (7-2141) and he looks like he’ll be launching late if they overdo it up front. He’s also one of the few in the field whose recent record says he’s turning up ready to run: two starts in the last 90 days, a win and a placing.
If you want the knockout, Hearts Affair is the “ceiling” horse from the big stable. Only two career runs (81) means the exposed data is thin, but that’s exactly the type that can jump a grade in one step at this time of year.
Play: Win bet Flywire. Saver only on Rubare if the track is favouring swoopers.
Where the money goes
My Flemington best bets profile is simple today: back the horse with current momentum in the staying race, and back the map in the sprint.
NAP: Nearco Frod (Race 1, 12:15). Two wins from his last four runs and he’s been in the money every time across the last 90 days. From barrier 4, Shinn can control his own fate instead of waiting for luck.
Value: Rubare (Race 2). If they go too hard early, he’s the one who can be winning at the 50m when the leaders are gasping.
Banker for multis: Flywire (Race 2) to place. Drawn to land close and keeps the decision-making out of the stewards’ room.
Each-way angle: Our Chief (Race 1). Five goes at Flemington for four placings is the sort of record that keeps collecting, even when he doesn’t win.
Course angle to keep: D T O’Brien operates like a trainer who understands this place, with 42 runners here for a strong strike and plenty of placings. When he brings one set up to run at Flemington, it’s rarely a sightseeing tour.
Next time you see a fit stayer drawn low at Flemington with a rider willing to move early, don’t overthink it, the long straight rewards the horse that makes the race, not the one that needs everything to go right.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Flemington today?
Racing kicks off at Flemington at 12:15 with the Tab We’re On (Bm84) over 2756m.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Flemington on today’s numbers?
On meaningful course samples among today’s riders, Jabez Johnstone is the standout at Flemington, winning 6 of 18 rides and placing in 9. For trainers with real volume, C Maher has the biggest book here (109 runners) with 17 wins, while D T O’Brien strikes at 8 wins from 42 runners and places 19 of them.
What are the best bets at Flemington today?
My Flemington racing tips land on Nearco Frod as the main win bet in Race 1 (12:15). In Race 2 (12:50), Flywire is the straight play because the draw (gate 2) and profile (71) suit the 1094m setup.
Where can I find the best Flemington odds?
Odds feeds weren’t available for these races at time of writing, so shop around with your preferred bookmaker and compare the win and place prices close to jump time. If you want a quick starting point, head to the RacingBase race pages for Flemington odds updates and market moves as they populate.
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