Belmont Park Racing Tips, Sept 26: Who's Bent to Win?
Gold Coast Racing Tips Sept 26 — Can Five Of Us Win?
Overview
Five Of Us has been the profile everyone respects and nobody quite trusts to win — three seconds and two thirds across its past six runs, competitive every single time, victorious not once. That exact conundrum sits at the centre of today’s Gold Coast racing tips, because the Gold Coast card boils down to a single contest: the Kit Loves A Roughie Mdn Hcp at 12:55, run over 1859m on the turf. Six runners go around after Rita’s Rose was scratched, and the finish looks like coming down to whether a genuine hitter of the frame can finally turn a placing into a winning photo. There’s a weight riddle sitting over the top of it too, with Echo Zulu shouldering the highest impost in the race off two runs that read nothing like a topweight’s form. Today’s card is built entirely around this one field because that’s what’s on offer — a compact, competitive maiden rather than a full eight-race grind — and a smaller field rewards close reading more than a crowded one does. Here’s the full case, the numbers behind it, and where the money should go.
The Gold Coast setup
Course form is light across this field. Only two runners arrive with any real depth of Gold Coast experience — Five Of Us with five runs at the track and Alkebulan with three — while the rest of the six have raced here once apiece or not at all. That’s not unusual for a maiden field this time of year, and it means the jockey and trainer numbers carry more weight than the horses’ own scorecards today.
The jockey colony engaged on this card has plenty of course miles behind it. Frederick Larson has ridden here more than a hundred times, comfortably the deepest sample of anyone in the saddle today, and his numbers hold up under that volume. Chelsea Baker’s place strike is the best of the group, even from a smaller book of rides.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Baker | 22 | 1 | 10 | 4.55% | 45.45% |
| M Hellyer | 70 | 4 | 23 | 5.71% | 32.86% |
| Frederick Larson | 102 | 12 | 33 | 11.76% | 32.35% |
| MS G Cartwright | 58 | 4 | 18 | 6.90% | 31.03% |
| Aidan Keeley | 27 | 2 | 6 | 7.41% | 22.22% |
On the training side, D J Bougoure owns the best strike rate of anyone represented in this field, even if the runner he’s sending today isn’t the one carrying that form. S J Morrisey’s numbers are built on serious volume rather than a hot run, which counts for more in a maiden than a flashy small sample.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D J Bougoure | 16 | 2 | 7 | 12.50% | 43.75% |
| S J Morrisey | 65 | 7 | 22 | 10.77% | 33.85% |
| K R Kemp | 24 | 2 | 7 | 8.33% | 29.17% |
| B A Gentle | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0.00% | 20.00% |
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Race-by-race
Race 1: Kit Loves A Roughie Mdn Hcp — 12:55, 1859m
Five Of Us is the one to beat here, and it’s not a close call. The course figures alone make the case: three placings from five runs at Gold Coast, a genuine sample by any measure. Zoom out to the last three months and the pattern only sharpens — six runs, five of them in the money, an average finishing position of 3.0 and not a single run worse than midfield. The only line missing from that resume is a win, which is exactly what makes this such an interesting spot for a maiden looking to crack through rather than a warning sign. The most recent piece of the puzzle came just a week ago at Eagle Farm, where Five Of Us ran second at odds of 20/1 with Frederick Larson in the saddle — the same rider back on today. Larson brings the deepest book of course rides of anyone engaged today, and the Larson–Morrisey combination has already produced four placings from ten runs together, two of them at this track. Barrier seven isn’t ideal in a small field, but with gate speed not obviously loaded into this line-up, it shouldn’t be the difference. Weight is the one query — 127.8 is towards the top of this field — but it’s carried that kind of weight before without missing the frame.
Race shape favours the horses drawn to get a run rather than the ones forced forward. Elroy, Oakfield Galaxy and Tisani James hold the three inside gates and look the likeliest to be doing the early work, which sets up a genuine test for whoever is left to pounce from off the pace. That’s the exact scenario where a horse with Five Of Us’s placing record from wide draws profits, and it’s another reason the case for it holds up beyond the raw numbers.
The danger is Alkebulan, mostly on the scale rather than the clock. It comes into this nearly seven points better off at the weights than Five Of Us, which matters in a race this tightly graded, and it has placed in two of its three runs at Gold Coast — an emerging pattern rather than a proven one, but a pattern all the same. Its record across the same 90-day window is more mixed: five runs, two placings, an average finish outside the top four. B A Gentle’s numbers at this track are modest too — two placings from ten runners and no visits to the winner’s stall — so this isn’t a case of a stable in form, more a horse getting weight relief at the right time.
Echo Zulu is the one the map says should be dangerous and the form says shouldn’t be trusted yet. Topping the weights at 130 usually reflects rating, but the two runs behind that number both finished around the back of the field, and its two most recent starts anywhere produced nothing better than eighth. D J Bougoure’s own strike rate is the best of any trainer in this race, so there’s a stable in form even if this individual runner hasn’t shown it lately. Oakfield Galaxy is a similar story in reverse — its only Gold Coast run was a placing, but the six runs since then have produced nothing inside the top six, so today’s task looks tougher than that one bright line suggests. Tisani James has been steady without threatening, four-four-seven-four-six the shape of its recent campaign, and looks capable of minor money at best. Elroy is the interesting outsider: the raw form figures (00-555) don’t inspire, but the underlying numbers from the past three months show two placings from three runs, and it gets the rail draw and the lightest weight in the field. Worth a token watch rather than a bet.
Back Five Of Us to win. The course sample, the recent placing streak, and a jockey with more experience at this track than anyone else in the race add up to a stronger case than the market is likely to reflect for a maiden without a win next to its name. An each-way saver isn’t the worst idea given how consistently this horse has hit the frame, but the win bet is where the value sits.
The plays
Here’s where today’s Gold Coast best bets land once everything above gets boiled down. Five Of Us is the headline call for the day — not because it looks unbeatable on pure ability, but because a horse placing five times from its last six runs, including a Gold Coast record built on real volume, is exactly the type that finally gets rewarded rather than run down late. Frederick Larson stays aboard from that near-miss at Eagle Farm a week ago, and that continuity matters.
Alkebulan is the value angle if the market prices it up on modest recent figures alone — the weight relief compared to Five Of Us is the part worth paying for, even with a placing record still building rather than proven.
With only the one race on the Gold Coast program today, there’s no same-course multi to chase, so Five Of Us doubles as the banker leg for anyone linking it into other meetings on the day.
For each-way interest away from the top two, Elroy’s underlying placing numbers over the past three months read better than the raw form figures suggest, and the rail draw with the lightest weight in the field gives it a genuine sight of minor money.
The repeatable angle from today’s card is the jockey colony, not any one stable: Frederick Larson’s volume at this track is unmatched by anyone else riding today, and when that kind of course knowledge lines up with a horse already doing the right things, it’s worth following again next time it happens. D J Bougoure is one to note for another day too — the best trainer strike rate in this field, just not attached to the right runner this time.
If Five Of Us doesn’t get the job done today, keep it on the radar for next start anyway — a horse placing at this rate eventually turns one of them into a win, and the value dries up the moment everyone else notices.
Best Bookmakers for Today’s Racing
Odds for the Kit Loves A Roughie Mdn Hcp weren’t locked into the market early enough to publish a firm quote at the time of writing, so check current prices before betting rather than relying on any number printed here. For anyone building out today’s Gold Coast racing tips into an actual bet, the list below rounds up where to compare markets before the 12:55 jump.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Gold Coast today?
The Gold Coast program today is built around one race, the Kit Loves A Roughie Mdn Hcp, which jumps at 12:55 local time over 1859m on the turf.
Who are the standout trainers and jockeys at Gold Coast today?
D J Bougoure holds the best trainer strike rate among today’s connections at 12.5% wins and 43.75% places from 16 course runners, while Frederick Larson brings by far the deepest jockey sample with 102 rides at the track for 12 wins and 33 placings.
What are the best bets at Gold Coast today?
Five Of Us in the 12:55 Kit Loves A Roughie Mdn Hcp is the standout, on the back of three placings from five Gold Coast runs and five placings from its past six starts anywhere, most recently a second at Eagle Farm a week ago.
Where can I find the best odds for Gold Coast races?
Compare prices across the major bookmakers using the list in the Best Bookmakers section above before placing anything, since prices on a single-race card like today’s can move quickly once markets firm.
Why is there only one race at Gold Coast today?
Today’s meeting is a single-race program, the Kit Loves A Roughie Mdn Hcp at 12:55. It’s a smaller card than Gold Coast usually runs, but the field still gives plenty to work with — six runners after one scratching, and a genuine form difference between the top of the market and the rest.
