Kilmore Racing Tips 13 Oct — does the inside draw rule?
Grafton Racing Tips 13 October — is the track horse the bet?
Grafton, and the one angle I can’t ignore
If you want a clean way into this Grafton meeting, follow the runners that have already proven they can handle this track. Not “seem to”, not “should” , actually done it. We’ve got a couple with tiny sample-size course records (one and two runs) that still matter as clues, plus one horse on the card with a real, repeatable Grafton profile: Referees has four starts here for four placings. That’s not a fluke, and it shapes how I’m betting the late races.
It’s a five-race program on turf, rated Good to Soft. Distances range from 1094m sprints up to a staying 2406m, so you’re dealing with different puzzles across the card rather than one tempo pattern that fits everything. These Grafton racing tips are written the way you’d talk it through with a mate: who I like, why, who can beat them, and what I’d actually do with the money.
Grafton today, the setup
Surface is Turf and the going is Good to Soft. That usually keeps the sprint races honest (they don’t get away with the cheap sectionals as often), and it tests whether the stayers can actually stay when the ground asks an extra question from the 600m.
Limited deep course history across the fields. Most runners have one or two visits here, so treat the single-start wins and placings as pointers, not gospel. The one proper “I keep turning up here” data point is Referees with four placings from four Grafton runs.
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| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Mallyon | 42 | 14 | 26 | 33.33 | 61.90 |
| G Spokes | 85 | 5 | 31 | 5.88 | 36.47 |
| L P Rolls | 32 | 4 | 12 | 12.50 | 37.50 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K A Lees | 14 | 5 | 9 | 35.71 | 64.29 |
| Adam Campton | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30.00 | 70.00 |
| M J Dunn | 94 | 22 | 56 | 23.40 | 59.57 |
Race-by-race: Grafton predictions
Race 1: Graftontickets.Com.Au Mdn Plate — 14:25, 1859m
So Fortunate looks the one you want to be with early. Two starts into the prep and the form line is already pointing up (6 then 3), and in these country maidens that profile often beats the older battlers who’ve had their chances. The 1859m suits a horse that’s learning to finish its races, and gate 6 gives B Looker options to land midfield with cover rather than getting dragged into an early fight.
I’ll respect Follow That Dream as the danger. The recent form has been trending forward (4, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2) and the light weight helps if the race turns into a grind from the 600m on this Good to Soft. He’s also placed on his only Grafton start, which isn’t a trend, but it tells you he handles the place.
What I’m not doing: taking short odds about the older horses with long strings of defeats. Armoury (5yo, form 78-765) and Repeat Offender (64564) can run well, but you’re paying for hope rather than evidence.
Play: Win bet So Fortunate. Save quinella with Follow That Dream if you want insurance.
Race 2: Book A Christmas Party @ Crjc Country Boosted Hcp (C3) — 15:05, 1094m
The market will want to make this about class, but I’m looking at it as a shape race. With a bunch that can roll and stack them up, you want the horse that can either hold a spot close without fighting, or get the right trail and sprint when the taps turn on.
Le Chocolat fits for me from barrier 1. That draw lets A Mallyon do what he does best at Grafton: judge position. Over 42 rides here he wins a third of the time and hits the frame more often than not, which is a real edge when the race is run in tight lanes from the 400m. Le Chocolat’s recent form (16-125) says he turns up, and the 1094m looks ideal for a horse that can travel and quicken.
The obvious danger is Jade Trees, who comes in with a lethal winning pattern (135116) and gets in with 126.7. She’s placed on her only Grafton start, again just a pointer, but it’s a positive.
Play: Win bet Le Chocolat. Small saver on Jade Trees if the price gap is wide.
Race 3: Crjc Agm 25 November (Bm58) — 15:40, 2406m
Does the staying form hold up when the distance stretches properly? That’s the whole race. Plenty of these have been living around shorter trips or mixed efforts, and 2406m on a bit of give sorts out the tourists.
Mana Combat is the one I’m backing to run the trip. The recent form is compact and progressive (2, 5, 3), which is exactly what you want stepping into a country staying handicap. He’s drawn 4, carries 124.5, and you’re not relying on him to do anything fancy, just keep finding when others hit the wall.
Sun Topaze is the danger because he comes in off a win (055951) and he’s actually got a bit of Grafton experience with four runs here. He’s not a track specialist off that, but he’s seen the place and won’t be surprised when the race gets serious late.
If you want something at a price for the multiples, Woodland Wonder keeps turning up at Grafton and has placed in both course visits. Not a win angle, but it’s a solid “keep me safe” runner in a staying race where plenty won’t stay.
Play: Win bet Mana Combat. Exacta saver Mana Combat with Sun Topaze.
Race 4: Crjc Christmas Race Day 29 November Country Boosted Mdn Plate — 16:15, 1531m
The stable map matters here. Stephen and Jordan Lee throw three at it (Exo Murano, Anderlyn, plus other runners across the day), and that tells you they think they can pinch a maiden at this meeting. I’m still siding with the runner that’s already shown it can run to a level that wins one of these.
Who Loves A Harley gets my money. The form line (7422) is a proper “ready to win” profile, and barrier 2 is tailor-made at this trip. He’s placed on his only Grafton start and that matters because a few of these are guessing at the track and the conditions. If R Spokes can hold a spot one pair back with cover, he gets first crack when they straighten.
The danger is Miss Fic. Only two starts for a 4yo and she’s already put together 4 then 3, drawn 1, and gets A Mallyon, who is simply a better pilot than most riders you see in these races. If she takes a step forward third-up, she can win.
One to watch, not necessarily to back: Insain Chaos has ability on his day and the 82-627 pattern hints he can pop up, but I’d rather see him do it before trusting him at 1531m on softish ground.
Play: Win bet Who Loves A Harley. Quinella with Miss Fic.
Race 5: Team Aidan Markets @ Crjc 22 November Hcp (C1) — 16:50, 1531m
This is the best betting race on the card because there’s a proper anchor: Referees just keeps performing at Grafton. Four runs here for four placings. That’s enough evidence to treat him as a genuine course horse, not just a “has been around” type. He also brings the right current form for this level (232434). He’s knocking on the door without falling in a heap late, which is half the battle at 1531m when the ground has a bit of give.
Yes, the draw is ugly (15), and you’re going to need a ride with intent, not panic. But G Spokes knows the track (85 rides here) and he’s the sort who can slide across and find a lane. If they overdo it early, Referees becomes even stronger because he’s proven he can stick on and fight.
The horse that can beat him is Steady On. He comes in off a win (265451), draws 1, and he’s the kind that can land in the first three without spending petrol. He’s also got three Grafton runs with a win and two placings, which is an emerging pattern rather than a one-off.
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Play: Win bet Referees. Saver win on Steady On if Referees is forced too wide early from that gate.
Race 6: The Kosciuszko 17 October (Bm58) — 17:30, 1285m
The market problem here is that wide draws can make good horses look bad, and cheap leaders look better than they are. This is a big field, and at 1285m you want a horse that can either offset a gate with early speed or get cover without going six deep.
Thunderous is my pick because the form is consistent and strong for this grade (216342). He draws 4, which is gold in a race like this, and D L Turner is a rider with enough Grafton experience to get the timing right (49 rides here). Thunderous has placed on his only start at the track, again just a single data point, but it’s a tick.
The danger is Brief Authority. He’s lightly raced, the form is sharp (41), and he gets A Mallyon. He’s won once from two Grafton runs and that matters more than most in a BM58 because plenty of these are still working out how to win. The query is barrier 20. If he’s trapped deep, even Mallyon can’t fix physics.
If you’re hunting a value place angle, The Lupercal has five Grafton runs for three placings. He doesn’t win here, but he often runs into the minors, and that’s useful in a blowout field.
Play: Win bet Thunderous. Each-way saver Brief Authority only if the price compensates for the draw.
The plays
NAP: Referees (Race 5, 16:50). The wide gate makes it a proper bet rather than a moral, but four placings from four Grafton runs is a profile I’m happy to follow at this meeting, and the recent form says he’s still right in the game.
Value: The Lupercal (Race 6, 17:30) for a place if the market lets you in. Five Grafton runs and he’s hit the frame three times, which is more reliability than most of this field can offer.
Banker for multis: Thunderous (Race 6, 17:30) each-way. Draw 4 in the last with a consistent form line is the kind of anchor that survives a bit of bad luck.
Each-way: Miss Fic (Race 4, 16:15). Draw 1 and A Mallyon is a serious late-race combination, and she’s trending the right way (4 then 3).
Course angle: Keep your eyes on riders who dominate here. A Mallyon wins a third of his Grafton rides and places in nearly two out of three. When he’s on a progressive horse like Miss Fic or a well-drawn runner like Le Chocolat, I’m prepared to bet earlier and firmer.
Next time this track comes up on a Good to Soft read, I’ll be quick to back runners with repeat Grafton placings again, because it’s the cleanest edge we’ve got in a meeting full of unknowns.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Grafton today?
Racing starts at 14:25 with the Graftontickets.Com.Au Mdn Plate over 1859m.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Grafton?
On long-run course numbers, A Mallyon is the standout: 42 rides at Grafton for 14 wins and 26 placings. For trainers, M J Dunn has the biggest sample and keeps performing here (94 runners for 22 wins and 56 placings), while K A Lees has a sharp strike with 5 wins from 14 runners.
What are the best bets at Grafton today?
My Grafton best bets are Referees in Race 5 (four placings from four Grafton runs) and Thunderous in Race 6 (consistent 216342 form, barrier 4). If you want a progressive improver, So Fortunate in Race 1 appeals off a 6 then 3 start to the prep.
Where can I find the best odds for Grafton races?
Prices move quickly on these country meetings, so shop around. Start with the major books and exchanges, and always compare before you bet. For more Grafton racing tips and updates, keep an eye on the latest markets through your preferred bookmaker and the RacingBase race pages.
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