Bendigo Racing Tips Sept 20 — Can Passio Break Through?
Grafton Racing Tips: Can Dunn-Mallyon Sweep the Card?
Overview
The name on the race book that matters most today isn’t a horse, it’s a combination. Trainer M J Dunn and jockey A Mallyon line up together three times on the Grafton card, and their record together at this track (9 wins from 21 rides) is the kind of number that should make punters sit up. Add a maiden winner returning off a smart formline in race one and a Kosciuszko heat loaded with improvers late in the day, and there’s plenty to like about these Grafton racing tips for today’s six-race card. Racing runs from 1:35pm through to 4:40pm on the turf, spanning a straightforward maiden plate right through to a genuine staying test over 2439m. Read on for the pick of each race, who’s in form around this circuit, and where the value looks best once the market opens.
Reading the Grafton card
Two names dominate the trainers’ and jockeys’ tables here, and it’s the same two names for the same reason. M J Dunn has started 85 horses at Grafton for 19 winners and 50 minor placings, close to a 59% strike rate for hitting the frame. A Mallyon does the riding on his best types, winning a third of his own 36 rides at the track and placing on three in five. Put them together and the sample gets even sharper: 21 combined runs for 9 wins and 13 places, a 61.9% place rate as a pair. For anyone building Grafton predictions off trainer and jockey form, that partnership is the obvious starting point. They’re on the same page three times today, aboard Zweigelt, Brief Authority and Rum And Kirk.
Elsewhere, Adam Campton is the trainer to watch on strike rate rather than volume. Eight runners at Grafton have returned three winners and six places, a 75% place rate that’s hard to ignore for a stable with only a handful of runners here. Jake Hull and D B Campbell both sit above 40% on minor placings from useful sample sizes too.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Campton | 8 | 3 | 6 | 37.5% | 75.0% |
| M J Dunn | 85 | 19 | 50 | 22.35% | 58.82% |
| D B Campbell | 9 | 1 | 5 | 11.11% | 55.56% |
| Ethan Ensby | 21 | 2 | 9 | 9.52% | 42.86% |
| J D Shelton | 60 | 6 | 18 | 10.0% | 30.0% |
| Stephen & Jordan Lee | 53 | 4 | 15 | 7.55% | 28.3% |
On the jockeys’ side, A Mallyon’s numbers lead the way as noted above. Behind him, Jett Newman and Archie MC Colm both convert close to half their Grafton rides into placings, while Siabh Rigley and G Spokes are the other names worth following into the betting.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Mallyon | 36 | 12 | 22 | 33.33% | 61.11% |
| Jett Newman | 31 | 5 | 15 | 16.13% | 48.39% |
| Archie MC Colm | 57 | 5 | 24 | 8.77% | 42.11% |
| Siabh Rigley | 15 | 2 | 6 | 13.33% | 40.0% |
| G Spokes | 76 | 5 | 27 | 6.58% | 35.53% |
| Jai Williams | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16.67% | 33.33% |
A handful of today’s runners already know this track well. Graceful Warrior has placed in all three of her Grafton starts, Hayley’s Rocket has two places from three, and Turpin’s Torment keeps hitting the board without ever breaking through, three places from seven runs at the circuit.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graceful Warrior | 3 | 1 | 3 | 33.33% | 100.0% |
| Hayley’s Rocket | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.33% | 66.67% |
| Tryanza | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| Monaco Flyer | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Jennibelle | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Turpin’s Torment | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 42.86% |
Race-by-race
Race 1: Graftontickets.Com.Au Mdn Plate — 1:35pm, 1881m
Zweigelt has been building to this. The formfigures read 3-5-4-2-1, and whichever way you read a string like that, the last 90 days tell a clean story: one win and two placings from three runs, an average finish of 2.3. That’s the profile of a maiden about to graduate, and the signs around this run only add to it. Trainer M J Dunn sends her out with A Mallyon in the saddle, the exact partnership that has produced 9 winners from 21 rides together at Grafton, a place rate close to 62%. Drawn in gate three, there’s no reason she can’t get the run of the race in a small field over the mile and a half plus.
Brass Band is the one to note as the danger. Four straight seconds followed by two thirds is the model of a professional placegetter, honest and fit, but a maiden that keeps arriving just short. She’s had one run at Grafton, finishing fifth, so there’s no course form edge to lean on there. If Zweigelt travels as well as the recent figures suggest, this maiden should be a formality. Win bet.
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Race 2: Crjc Agm 25 November Country Boosted Mdn Plate — 2:10pm, 1110m
M J Dunn and A Mallyon are on the job again here, this time aboard Brief Authority, a lightly raced runner who finished fourth on debut. There isn’t much personal formline to go on yet, but the stable and rider combination that’s produced almost 62% placings together at this track buys plenty of goodwill, and a good gate (barrier one) means she should get every chance to build on that debut run. Tommyzacat is the one to watch if the market moves for her: a winning debut is only a single data point, but it’s the sort of effort that tends to draw support second-up. With seventeen runners and precious little proven form across the field, this is an each-way interest race rather than a confident single. Each-way only.
Race 3: Book A Christmas Party @ Crjc Mdn Hcp — 2:50pm, 1301m
Does Chop Chop Go’s form mean anything in a field this deep? Eighteen runners make this the toughest race to be confident about all day, but her only run inside the last 90 days produced a placing, and she managed the same on her lone Grafton start. Trainer Renita Beaton hasn’t found a winner from six runners at the track yet, which tempers the enthusiasm, but the placings keep coming. Qui Rouge is the each-way alternative: trainer Jake Hull is among the more productive conditioners at Grafton, two winners and three places from seven runners there. Neither looks like a confident single in a field this size. Watch race, small each-way at best.
Race 4: Crjc Christmas Race Day 29 November (Bm66) — 3:25pm, 1301m
Mongolian Spring draws the widest gate in a ten-horse field, which is the one mark against her, but everything else about this booking points the same way. She’s raced at Grafton twice and won both times; two runs is too small a sample to put a number on, but it’s not nothing either. Zoom out to the last 90 days and the picture holds up: two wins and three placings from six runs, though one flat effort in that run keeps her average finish at 4.2. Trainer Adam Campton is red hot at this circuit regardless, three winners and six places from just eight runners, a 75% placegetter. She also carries the lighter weight of the placed runners, 121.2kg against The Lupercal’s 127.8kg.
The Lupercal is the danger under D B Campbell, who places more than half his Grafton runners (55.56% from nine) and has landed one win and three placings from six runs in the past 90 days. He’s drawn better, gate seven, and the extra weight isn’t enough on its own to rule him out if the speed inside gets lonely. Each-way cover on Mongolian Spring is the sensible play given the wide gate; back her for a place at worst.
Race 5: Team Aidan Markets @ Crjc 22 November (Bm58) — 4:05pm, 2439m
Mahuika Maroi grinds; Purple Kitty just keeps finding the frame no matter what’s asked of her. Over this genuine staying test, the longest race on the card at 2439m, that contrast is worth building a bet around. Mahuika Maroi has placed three times from four runs in the past 90 days without winning, the classic nearly-horse profile, and trainer Ethan Ensby has a moderate but real record at Grafton, a 42.86% placegetter from 21 runners. She’s drawn the outside gate in a fourteen-horse field, which matters less over this trip than it would sprinting, but it’s still not the draw you’d choose.
Purple Kitty is almost impossible to leave out of anything: six placings from seven runs in the past 90 days, an average finish of 2.7. She doesn’t find the winner’s stall often, only once in that sample, but she’ll be around the money. Each-way on Mahuika Maroi for the win angle, with Purple Kitty the safer place cover if you want to hedge across both.
Race 6: The Kosciuszko 17 October Hcp (C2) — 4:40pm, 1110m
Steffi Electrica is the one drawing the eye late in the day. Three runs in the past 90 days have produced three placings, including a win, for an average finish of 2.0, and she did the same on her only start at this track. Trainer A J Edmonds isn’t sending one runner here today, he’s sending three, and that kind of team commitment from a stable usually means something. The one knock is the gate, twelve of fourteen, which asks a bit more of her early.
Monaco Flyer is the each-way alternative and drawn far better, gate seven. One win and two placings from three runs in the past 90 days, and a solid record at Grafton itself, one win and two places from four runs at the track. If the map falls apart for Steffi Electrica from that wide gate, Monaco Flyer is the one to have covered. Each-way on Steffi Electrica, with Monaco Flyer as the saver.
The plays
Zweigelt is the strongest case on the card. She arrives with a clean recent formline and the backing of the best trainer-jockey combination at this track, M J Dunn and A Mallyon converting well over 60% of their runs together into placings. That combination alone is reason enough to make her the headline selection of these Grafton racing tips.
Steffi Electrica is where the market looks generous, and she anchors our Grafton best bets away from the favourite. Three from three for placings across her last 90 days, a winning run at this track on her only visit, and a trainer sending three runners here today rather than one. No odds were available through our data feed at the time of writing, so treat this as a form-based value call rather than a price-based one.
For the safest multi leg, Mongolian Spring is hard to fault: unbeaten in two visits to Grafton and backed by a trainer placing three in every four runners at the track. Purple Kitty is the best each-way credential on the card, six placings from seven runs across her recent form. And the repeatable angle worth following every time this stable turns up: M J Dunn and A Mallyon at Grafton, a partnership that’s produced 9 wins and 13 places from 21 combined rides, with three more chances to add to it today.
If Dunn keeps pairing with Mallyon at this rate, he’ll be the first name to check on the Grafton card every time it comes around.
Best Bookmakers for Today’s Racing
Odds weren’t live through our data feed at the time this preview was written, so shop around once the market opens on Grafton odds and compare a few licensed operators before placing anything, particularly on the each-way and multi combinations above. The list below is a good starting point for comparing markets on today’s card.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Grafton today?
The first race, the Graftontickets.Com.Au Maiden Plate over 1881m, jumps at 1:35pm. The card runs six races through to the last at 4:40pm, The Kosciuszko heat over 1110m.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Grafton today?
M J Dunn leads the trainers on volume, 19 winners and 50 placings from 85 runners at Grafton, close to a 59% place rate. A Mallyon leads the jockeys, winning a third of his 36 rides here and placing on three in five. The pair combine three times today and have produced 9 wins from 21 rides together at the track.
What are the best bets at Grafton today?
Zweigelt in Race 1 (1:35pm) is the top pick in today’s Grafton racing tips, backed by a clean recent formline and the Dunn-Mallyon partnership. Steffi Electrica in Race 6 (4:40pm) is rated the value play after placing in all three of her runs across the past 90 days.
Where can I find the best odds for Grafton races?
Odds weren’t available through our data feed while this preview was written. Compare markets with a licensed Australian bookmaker closer to race time, and use the bookmaker list on this page as a starting point.
Is there a repeatable trainer or jockey angle to follow at Grafton?
Yes: M J Dunn and A Mallyon. Together they’ve won 9 of 21 rides at Grafton, a place rate of 61.9%, and they line up three times on today’s card with Zweigelt, Brief Authority and Rum And Kirk.
