Warwick Racing Tips Sept 24: Can Zarippa Go Back-to-Back?
Hawkesbury Racing Tips Sept 24: Can Waller’s Raid Land It?
Overview
C J Waller doesn’t send three runners into a Hawkesbury maiden by accident. When the state’s most successful stable fields Kiviska, Castelique and True Tone all in the same race, the Clarendon Tavern Maiden Plate, it says plenty about how highly the barn rates both this track and this grade today. That’s the thread running through today’s Hawkesbury racing tips: a compact four-race card, light on black-type class but full of interesting placement plays, from a promising debutant fresh off a competitive third to a rising sprinter shouldering top weight in the last. All four races are run on the turf, fields range from eight up to thirteen, and every event is either a maiden or a midway handicap rather than open class.
That maiden-heavy shape matters for how you read the card. Three of the four races carry runners who have never started, which pushes the emphasis away from raw formlines and onto stable strength, barrier draws and who’s aboard. It also means the jockey and trainer numbers below do more work than usual – when a horse has no history at a track, the humans around it are the next best guide. Read on for the race-by-race breakdown and the bets worth having.
Reading the Hawkesbury track
Limited course form across today’s fields – most runners have one or two starts at Hawkesbury at best, and only Banner Banner and Circus Girl carry three runs here, both without hitting the frame. That thin sample means today leans harder on recent form, race shape and the jockeys and trainers who know this circuit than on any horse’s personal Hawkesbury record.
The jockey numbers tell a clearer story. Sorted by how often they place rather than how often they win, a handful of riders on today’s card have built genuine sample sizes at Hawkesbury:
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J B McDonald | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| J R Collett | 16 | 3 | 10 | 18.75% | 62.5% |
| Tom Sherry | 25 | 3 | 15 | 12.0% | 60.0% |
| Zac Lloyd | 26 | 7 | 15 | 26.92% | 57.69% |
| Mollie Fitzgerald | 27 | 3 | 14 | 11.11% | 51.85% |
| Tommy Berry | 35 | 6 | 18 | 17.14% | 51.43% |
| Rachel King | 34 | 6 | 17 | 17.65% | 50.0% |
| C Schofield | 41 | 6 | 20 | 14.63% | 48.78% |
Zac Lloyd’s 26.92% win rate stands out as the best combination of volume and strike rate on that list, and he’s on one of today’s more interesting types in Race 2. On the training side, C J Waller’s raw numbers dwarf everyone else’s at Hawkesbury, but he’s not the only trainer worth watching:
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M, W & J Hawkes | 13 | 3 | 8 | 23.08% | 61.54% |
| G Waterhouse & A Bott | 33 | 5 | 14 | 15.15% | 42.42% |
| Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter | 12 | 1 | 5 | 8.33% | 41.67% |
| C J Waller | 66 | 11 | 27 | 16.67% | 40.91% |
| Richard & Will Freedman | 22 | 2 | 9 | 9.09% | 40.91% |
| Brad Widdup | 45 | 6 | 18 | 13.33% | 40.0% |
| Joseph Pride | 21 | 3 | 8 | 14.29% | 38.1% |
| G Ryan & S Alexiou | 28 | 2 | 10 | 7.14% | 35.71% |
M, W & J Hawkes places better than 6 of every 10 runners they bring here, on a smaller but still workable sample of 13. Waller’s 66 runs at the track make him the most tested trainer on the card by volume, and today he’s testing that record three times over in one race. Sara Ryan also saddles three runners across the card – Hungry, Bascilica Babe and Red Affairs – though her own course numbers sit further down the list, closer to a quarter of runners hitting the frame than a half.
Race by race at Hawkesbury
Race 1: Hrc Motel Super Mdn Plate — 1:40pm, 1094m
Is there anything reliable in this one, or is it a guessing game with barrier gates? Four of the eight runners have never started, and the four with a form line have produced a 4th, two 7ths and an 8th between them. Chumpakidd is the one piece of genuine encouragement — beaten into fourth on debut for Tom Sherry, who’s landed 60% of his rides at this track from 25 attempts, a real sample built over time. Joseph Pride’s Laughing Moons and Sara Ryan’s Red Affairs both debut from capable stables and can’t be dismissed on breeding and stable strength alone, but there’s no formline to hang confidence on either way. Small each-way interest in Chumpakidd only; otherwise this is a watch race, no bet.
Race 2: Evergreen Turf Provincial Mdn Hcp — 2:20pm, 1422m
Lion Hunt only needed one look at a racetrack to show he belongs, finishing third on debut, and today he gets Zac Lloyd, who wins close to 27% of his rides at Hawkesbury and places in more than half. Brad Widdup has placed 40% of his 45 runners at this track over time, a genuine number rather than a hot run, and pairing that trainer with that rider on an improving type is worth following into a bigger field over the extra distance. Cold Mist is the each-way alternative: three runs in the past three months for two placings and an average finish around second, the profile of a horse that keeps hitting the frame without quite winning one. Eleven go around here, which is enough traffic that gate speed matters, and Lion Hunt’s inside draw should let him get across without burning fuel early. If he copes with the step up in distance, he’s the value follow in a track-strong combination; if the market undervalues Cold Mist’s consistency, there’s each-way money in the bigger price. Win bet on Lion Hunt, small saver on Cold Mist for the placings.
Race 3: Clarendon Tavern Mdn Plate — 2:55pm, 1640m
Waller sending three runners into the same maiden tells its own story, and Kiviska looks the pick of the trio. Second-up off a debut fifth, he steps forward into a close-up second last start, and the booking of Tommy Berry is no accident: the Waller-Berry combination has produced three wins and six placings from just 11 runs together at Hawkesbury specifically, a win rate above 27% at a track most jockey-trainer pairings would find tough going. That’s not a career-wide number diluted across every circuit in the state — it’s specific to this one, and it carries real weight. Castelique and True Tone give Waller depth if Kiviska underperforms, but neither has shown the same upward trajectory. The genuine threat to all three is In Circles, who has placed in every one of his last three starts without winning any of them — a frustrating pattern for backers but a reliable one for anyone chasing the frame, and Joseph Pride’s course numbers back up the type even if jockey Regan Bayliss hasn’t lit up the strike rate here. Hillbilly Elegy also deserves a mention out of the powerful Hawkes stable, unraced beyond a debut third, but it’s asking a lot of an unproven type in a 13-horse field over 1640m. Kiviska and In Circles have both drawn wide, barriers nine and ten in a field of 13, which puts the emphasis on tactics rather than the gate – Berry’s experience around this circuit is the reason to trust he still finds the run he needs. This is the best betting race on the card: back Kiviska to win, with In Circles the each-way alternative if the home turn gets messy.
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Race 4: Book Your Christmas Raceday Now Midway Hcp (C1) — 3:35pm, 1640m
Force March and The Prospect both arrive off wins, but the handicapper has read them in opposite ways. Force March strung together a 3-4-2-2-1 sequence to break through and gets rewarded with top weight of 130kg for the privilege — a real test of whether that recent form holds up once the impost bites. The Prospect’s rise has been messier on paper, an 8th sandwiched among placings before the most recent line also reads as a win, but he carries a lighter 126.7kg with Tommy Berry retaining the ride. Berry’s Hawkesbury numbers — better than 17% winners and over half his rides placed from 35 runs — tip the ledger toward The Prospect as the safer each-way watch, even if Force March’s cleaner trend makes him the one to beat on figures alone. Three runners have been scratched from this field, thinning it to eight, which should suit whichever type finds a genuine tempo up front. Both fancied runners have workable gates – Force March out of barrier five, The Prospect from four – so neither should be too far from the speed in a smaller field than the entries suggested. Small each-way play on The Prospect, with Force March respected as the danger if the weight doesn’t bite.
The plays
Kiviska is the number one play of the day. Second-up and clearly building, he carries the retained services of a rider who’s landed better than a quarter of his rides for this stable specifically at Hawkesbury — not the kind of combination worth passing up in a maiden this open. In Circles is the value angle: a horse that’s placed in three straight starts without winning tends to drift in the market because backers chase a winner rather than a minor-placegetter, but that consistency is worth having onside each-way. The Prospect is the safest inclusion for multis, fresh off a win with the state’s form jockey retained and a workable weight. Cold Mist offers the best place credentials on the card, with two placings from three runs in the past three months and a habit of finding the frame regardless of grade. The repeatable angle from today’s card sits with the Waller stable: three runners in one maiden and a rider booking that’s already banked a 27% strike rate at this specific circuit. If that pairing keeps turning up at Hawkesbury meetings, it’s worth tracking every time Waller sends one here. For a small multi, Kiviska and The Prospect together cover the two races with the clearest recent form, without needing to include the genuinely open card openers.
Best Bookmakers for Today’s Racing
Compare markets before betting — a half-point difference on a $4 chance adds up across a card like this one.
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Hawkesbury Racing FAQ
What time does racing start at Hawkesbury today?
First race, the Hrc Motel Super Maiden Plate, jumps at 1:40pm, with four races taking the card through to the last at 3:35pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Hawkesbury today?
C J Waller leads the trainer numbers with 66 runs, 11 wins and 27 placings at Hawkesbury, a win rate above 16% and a place rate approaching 41%. Among the jockeys, Zac Lloyd’s record stands out: better than 26% winners and almost 58% placed from 26 rides at the track.
What are the best bets at Hawkesbury today?
Kiviska in Race 3 is the number one selection, backed by a 27% win rate for the Waller-Berry combination specifically at this track. The Prospect in the last and In Circles in Race 3 round out the each-way interest.
Where can I find the best odds for Hawkesbury races?
Odds weren’t yet published for this meeting at the time of writing, so compare markets across bookmakers closer to the first race using the list above rather than locking in an early price.
How many runners are in each race at Hawkesbury today?
The card runs from eight up to thirteen: eight in the opening maiden, eleven in the second, thirteen in the Clarendon Tavern Maiden Plate, and eight remaining in the last after three scratchings.
