Overview
Cap d’Ail has run at Kembla Grange six times and finished in the first three in five of them, and the latest run anywhere was a win. That’s the horse we want to be with on an eight-race Saturday card where most of the fields are full of maidens and horses still searching for a reason to win.
The track is rated Good, racing starts at 1:04PM and finishes at 5:54PM, and the quality builds as the afternoon goes on: three maiden races early, a Super Maiden in the middle, then four Benchmark contests that make up the quaddie. These Kembla Grange racing tips cover every race, lean heavily on K S Latham, who wins one in five rides here, and finish with a NAP, a banker and an each-way play for the card.
Kembla Grange: the setup
The early maidens carry almost no course form, so the useful track numbers sit in the back half of the card. These are the runners with three or more Kembla Grange starts.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cap d’Ail | 6 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 83 |
| Satness | 6 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 83 |
| Equilibrist | 6 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 50 |
| Creator Of World | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 60 |
| Me Me | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 43 |
| Kitty Okay | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 50 |
| Sneaky Choice | 3 | 2 | 3 | 67 | 100 |
| Li’l Grug | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K S Latham | 85 | 17 | 45 | 20.0 | 52.9 |
| L Magorrian | 56 | 7 | 25 | 12.5 | 44.6 |
| Jean Van Overmeire | 66 | 16 | 29 | 24.2 | 43.9 |
| Mitchell Bell | 76 | 11 | 30 | 14.5 | 39.5 |
| C Lever | 60 | 8 | 23 | 13.3 | 38.3 |
| G Buckley | 71 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 19.7 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Snowden | 38 | 8 | 22 | 21.1 | 57.9 |
| J G Sargent | 23 | 3 | 13 | 13.0 | 56.5 |
| G Waterhouse & A Bott | 38 | 10 | 21 | 26.3 | 55.3 |
| C J Waller | 61 | 11 | 33 | 18.0 | 54.1 |
| Bjorn Baker | 32 | 7 | 14 | 21.9 | 43.8 |
| K J Parker | 69 | 13 | 27 | 18.8 | 39.1 |
G Buckley’s line is worth a second look before backing any of the four mounts: 71 rides at Kembla Grange without a winner.
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Kembla Grange racing tips: race by race
Race 1: Westrac Mdn Plate, 1:04PM, 1200m
Hard to have a confident view in a maiden where nobody has shown a winning turn of foot. Loreal Belle is the most experienced of the fancied runners, with five career starts including a third, and the Waterhouse and Bott stable wins with one in four of its Kembla Grange starters. L P Beuzelin has two wins from ten rides here.
The danger is the unknown. Envious makes a debut for Chris Waller, whose runners place more than half the time at this track, and Regal ran fourth at a first start for Bjorn Baker. Small win bet on Loreal Belle, nothing bigger.
Race 2: Csr Building Products Mdn Plate, 1:44PM, 1200m
Waller again, and this time with a horse that has been to the races. Geryon finished fifth on debut and gets L Magorrian, who places on 25 of 56 rides here. This field doesn’t ask for much.
Threesome is the threat. The Peter Snowden stable has placed with 22 of its 38 Kembla Grange starters, one of the best place rates of any trainer on the card, and Jean Van Overmeire takes the ride from barrier 1. Geryon to win, but treat it as a watch race and keep the stake small.
Race 3: Baines Masonry Midway Mdn Hcp, 2:24PM, 1600m
Dance With Destiny has finished second at each of the last three starts. That’s frustrating to back, but in a Midway Maiden Handicap it also makes this the most reliable horse in the race. The one look at Kembla Grange produced a second too, and the J G Sargent stable places with more than half of its starters here. Van Overmeire rides from barrier 1 with 58.5kg.
Iminastate is the one who could beat it. Latham rides, the last start was a second, and the three-year-old has placed at one of two runs in the past 90 days. Top weight of 59kg is the query. Presumptuous Gal has placed in three of six recent runs. Dance With Destiny to win and place, and it’s our banker below.
Race 4: The Builders Club Super Mdn Hcp, 3:04PM, 1400m
Does anything here want to win? The form figures say not many. Reelflare ran fourth at the only start so far and gets Mitchell Bell for John O’Shea and Tom Charlton, a stable with six wins from 30 Kembla Grange starters. That’s enough to make Reelflare the pick in a race without a single winner in the field.
Imperial Code for Waterhouse and Bott is the danger. Seventh on debut, but no stable with real volume here wins at a higher rate. Watch race. If you must play, a small win on Reelflare.
Race 5: Utj Interiors Provincial (Bm64), 3:44PM, 1500m
Equilibrist is the course horse in the first leg of the quaddie. Six Kembla Grange runs have produced three placings, two of them wins, the last start was a third, and four runs in the past 90 days have returned $30,750. Magorrian rides for K J Parker, who has won with 13 of 69 starters here. The 60.5kg is a fair weight from barrier 3.
Yes Siree is the danger: two wins from four runs in the past 90 days, the most recent of them last start, and only 57kg with Olivia Chambers. Creator Of World hasn’t won here in five tries but has placed in three of them, and placed in three of five recent runs as well, including a win. That’s the each-way profile. Equilibrist to win, Creator Of World each-way.
Race 6: Illawarra Toyota Conditional (Bm68), 4:26PM, 1600m
The best race on the card, and the one we’re most confident about. Cap d’Ail and Satness have identical Kembla Grange records, six starts for two wins and five placings, but their recent form goes in opposite directions. Cap d’Ail‘s form reads 3-2-1-4-1, with four placings from five runs in the past 90 days, an average finish of 2.2 and $55,200 in prize money. Satness has placed in two of six recent runs and finished sixth last start.
J Grisedale has two wins from 15 rides here and the 59kg is two and a half kilos less than Satness carries. Barrier 10 is the only thing to worry about, and over 1600m there’s time to find cover.
Sneaky Choice is the danger. Three Kembla Grange starts, three placings, two of them wins, and only 54kg. The recent form is weaker, with one placing from five runs in the past 90 days, but horses that keep winning at one track tend to keep doing it. So Rebellious won at the only start here and has a win and another placing from five recent runs. Back Cap d’Ail to win, with a saver exacta over Sneaky Choice and Satness.
Race 7: Coates Hire (Bm64), 5:16PM, 1000m
One thousand metres from barrier 1 with 55kg makes Excelluna hard to ignore. The three-year-old has had two runs in the past 90 days for a win and a third, placed at the only Kembla Grange start and gets S Guymer, who has two wins from 12 rides here.
Mrs Flanders has the stronger body of recent work, three placings from five runs in the past 90 days, two of them wins, but finished sixth last start and carries 58kg. Indecisive is the market problem. Top weight of 61kg will put people off, yet the horse has placed at both Kembla Grange runs and Latham and John Thompson combine for three wins and seven placings from 12 runners here together. Excelluna to win, Indecisive as the value play.
Race 8: Master Builders Nsw (Bm64), 5:54PM, 1200m
Star Half won last start and has had two runs in the past 90 days for a win and a second, worth $30,900. Beuzelin rides at 59kg, and in a big field where plenty of the form is patchy, that kind of recent consistency is worth backing. Barrier 10 asks a question, but the 1200m start gives time to find a spot.
Kennedy Compound is the improver. Two career starts, a second and then a win, for Bjorn Baker, with 55.5kg. Kitty Okay has two wins from four Kembla Grange starts and draws barrier 2, which makes the horse a worthwhile inclusion in the exotics. Star Half to win, Kennedy Compound and Kitty Okay in the trifecta.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Cap d’Ail (Race 6, 4:26PM). Five placings from six runs at the track and a win last start. Nothing else on the card combines course form and current form this well.
Value: Indecisive (Race 7, 5:16PM). The 61kg should push the price out, but the horse has placed at both runs here and Latham and Thompson strike at one in four together. Markets weren’t open when this was written, so check the racecard for the price.
Banker: Dance With Destiny (Race 3, 2:24PM). Three straight seconds in maiden company. Hard to see a worse result than another one, which is exactly what a multi leg needs.
Each-way: Creator Of World (Race 5, 3:44PM). Three placings from five starts at Kembla Grange and the same strike rate in recent runs.
Course angle: K S Latham. Seventeen winners and 45 placings from 85 rides at this track, with a mount in all eight races today. When Latham rides for John Thompson, the numbers get better again.
If Cap d’Ail wins again, the Poidevin-Laine stable will have a horse that should be finding its way to a stronger grade by the end of spring.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Kembla Grange today?
Race 1, the Westrac Maiden Plate over 1200m, jumps at 1:04PM. The last, the Master Builders NSW Benchmark 64 over 1200m, is at 5:54PM.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Kembla Grange?
K S Latham has 17 winners and 45 placings from 85 Kembla Grange rides, and Jean Van Overmeire wins at almost one in four here. Among trainers, Peter Snowden places with 22 of 38 starters at the track and Waterhouse and Bott have won with ten of their 38.
What are the best bets at Kembla Grange today?
Our Kembla Grange best bet is Cap d’Ail in Race 6, with five placings from six course starts and a win last time out. Dance With Destiny in Race 3 is the banker after three consecutive second placings.
Where can I find the best odds for Kembla Grange races?
Markets weren’t open when these Kembla Grange predictions were written. Check each race’s racecard on Racingbase for the best available price across our partner bookmakers once betting opens.