Rosehill Racing Tips Sep 26 — Can Better Late Deliver?
Mornington Racing Tips Sept 26: Can Brown Strike Again?
Overview
Ethan Brown doesn’t miss much when he’s on the board at Mornington. Nine rides at this circuit have brought him five winners and five placings, a strike rate that stands out from every other name riding here today, and he’s engaged three times on Saturday’s card – most notably aboard Tsarine, a last-start winner he already partnered to victory at this track a few weeks back. That combination anchors this set of Mornington racing tips, but it isn’t the only story on offer. C Maher fields three runners at a track where his stable places better than two in every three, Celestial Zara arrives in career-best touch off two wins from her last three starts, and a competitive Benchmark 84 closes out the card with a first-up runner carrying more upside than his formline first suggests. Three races, all on the turf, worth a genuine look before the first jump at 12:10pm. Here’s the full form.
Mornington – the setup
Course form is thin across all three races – the bulk of today’s runners have started at Mornington once or not at all, so a horse-by-horse course table would be more noise than signal. What the numbers do back up strongly is who’s riding and who’s training well at this circuit right now.
Ethan Brown is the number worth building a strategy around. Nine rides at Mornington have returned five winners and five places – a 55.56% winning strike rate that dwarfs every other name in the room – and he’s engaged on three of today’s runners: A Diva, Tsarine and Space Rider. Thomas Stockdale (17 rides, 58.82% placed) and J Mott (31 rides, 54.84% placed) round out the jockeys worth watching for volume as well as strike rate.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Stockdale | 17 | 4 | 10 | 23.53% | 58.82% |
| Ethan Brown | 9 | 5 | 5 | 55.56% | 55.56% |
| J Mott | 31 | 5 | 17 | 16.13% | 54.84% |
| D W Stackhouse | 27 | 3 | 14 | 11.11% | 51.85% |
| Patrick Moloney | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16.67% | 50.00% |
| Damien Thornton | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7.14% | 42.86% |
| L Nolen | 17 | 1 | 6 | 5.88% | 35.29% |
| Luke Cartwright | 25 | 3 | 8 | 12.00% | 32.00% |
On the training side, C Maher is the clear standout – 12 runners at Mornington for five wins and eight places, a 66.67% placed rate, and he saddles three runners today (Spirit Of Wealth, Keep Your Cool and Naval Academy). Reece Goodwin’s smaller sample is even sharper on a percentage basis (71.43% placed from seven runners), and both A & S Freedman and M M Laurie carry double-figure run counts with roughly half their runners hitting the frame.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reece Goodwin | 7 | 2 | 5 | 28.57% | 71.43% |
| C Maher | 12 | 5 | 8 | 41.67% | 66.67% |
| A & S Freedman | 13 | 3 | 7 | 23.08% | 53.85% |
| M M Laurie | 14 | 2 | 7 | 14.29% | 50.00% |
| M Price & M Kent Jnr | 19 | 2 | 9 | 10.53% | 47.37% |
| Julius Sandhu | 9 | 2 | 4 | 22.22% | 44.44% |
| D M Noonan | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20.00% | 40.00% |
| Ben, Will & JD Hayes | 19 | 2 | 6 | 10.53% | 31.58% |
Race by race
Race 1: The Big Screen Company (Bm70) – 12:10pm, 1640m
Celestial Zara has been racing above her grade all campaign, and the last three months back that up: two wins from three runs at an average finishing position of 2.0. The card formline (3-12114) shows three wins scattered through this prep, with a fourth last start the only blemish. She steps out to 1640m for John Mcardle with J Mott engaged, a jockey who has amassed 31 rides at Mornington for five wins and 17 places, a place rate above 54%. Draw 3 is workable and the extra distance should suit a mare who has been finishing her races off late. Ocean Bay is the one confirmed absentee, leaving ten to go around.
Miss Castelvecchio is the closest thing to a genuine danger. She won last start and has two wins from three runs across the past three months, and the raw card form (1-4171) shows a horse that’s rarely out of the money. Charlotte Littlefield’s Mornington record undersells the case – one placing from five runners at the track – but the mare herself is doing the talking. Highly Intrigued is the one to note for each-way value: her only run in the past three months was a win, and the card form (17-141) shows two wins from her last three starts overall, though her rider, Jett Stanley, has yet to place from nine rides at this track.
Win bet Celestial Zara, with Miss Castelvecchio the each-way alternative if the market goes a short-priced way early.
Race 2: Sportsbet Blackbook (Bm70) – 12:45pm, 1312m
A & S Freedman and Ethan Brown have already worked out how to win at Mornington together, and they send the same combination back out on Tsarine over the same 1312m trip where she scored last start (she saluted at 11/2 that day). The partnership’s overall record reads 12 runs for three wins and six places, a 25% strike rate with half the field beaten, and at Mornington specifically it’s one win and one place from two runs together – too small a sample to lean on alone, but it lines up with everything else here. Brown himself remains the standout rider at this track full stop: nine rides, five winners, the best strike rate on today’s book. Tsarine’s own recent card backs it up – a win last start and two places from three runs across the past three months – and she was unbeaten in her only previous visit to Mornington, a small sample but a perfect one. If there’s a query, it’s that a last-start winner rarely goes unnoticed in the market, but on jockey and course numbers alone she’s the one to beat.
Electric Elvis is the alternative case and arguably the value. Six straight runs in the money – two wins, four places from five starts across the past three months, an average finishing position of 2.0 – trained by Reece Goodwin, who has quietly built one of the sharper trainer records at this circuit: seven runners for two wins and five places, a place rate above 71%. If the field goes forward hard, Electric Elvis is the horse built to run over the top of them late.
Plunger is the roughie worth a mention: unbeaten in its first two starts before finishing second last time, lightly raced and open to more improvement, but the step up into a 16-horse field makes it more watch than bet today.
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Win bet Tsarine, with Electric Elvis the each-way and value alternative if the market drifts either of them.
Race 3: Devilbend Golf Club (Bm84) – 1:20pm, 1312m
Keep Your Cool and Naval Academy give C Maher two different roads into the same race, and a stable that already tops the trainers’ table at this circuit deserves respect whichever one he leans on. Keep Your Cool is the fresher package: a placing line of 3-1-2-3-3 before he was put away shows a horse that barely missed the top three all prep, and he resumes at a track where the stable’s overall record is hard to ignore, with Jabez Johnstone aboard, a rider with two placings from three Mornington rides. The obvious question with any first-up runner is fitness, but this stable rarely sends one out underdone at a track it knows this well.
Naval Academy is the each-way alternative from the same stable, and arguably the safer read on visible recent form: three runs of 7-7-7 before rounding into 2nd, 5th and 3rd across his last three starts. The official three-month numbers are modest – no wins from four runs, one placing – but the direction is right, not wrong, and Logan Bates has placed on five of his seven Mornington rides, a rate above 71%.
Space Rider adds another layer: Ethan Brown again in the saddle, the standout rider at Mornington today, on a horse whose own recent form is moderate (one placing from its only run in the past three months) but whose light weight could matter if the pace collapses in the straight.
Each-way Keep Your Cool for the win market, with Naval Academy the each-way saver if the first-up query worries you.
Where the money goes
Pulling these Mornington racing tips together into a betting position: Tsarine is the one I’d put real money on. Not because she’s unbeaten at Mornington (one start, one win, too small a sample to lean on by itself) but because Ethan Brown’s booking backs it up completely – the best-performed jockey at this circuit today, on a mare who won last start and has placed in two of her last three. That’s the NAP, in the 12:45.
Value: Electric Elvis, also in the 12:45 – six from six in the frame across her last five runs, trained by a stable with a genuine course edge, and yet she plays second fiddle in the market conversation to shorter-priced runners with less consistency behind them.
Banker: Celestial Zara for the multi – two wins from her last three, drawn to get the run, ridden by a jockey with more than 50 rides worth of Mornington form behind him.
Each-way: Naval Academy, the improving Maher runner whose raw three-month numbers undersell where his form is actually trending.
Course angle: anywhere Ethan Brown is engaged today, respect the booking. Three rides, and a Mornington strike rate that outperforms every other name in the jockeys’ room – the clearest of today’s Mornington best bets on jockey form alone.
If Brown keeps riding at this rate here, he’ll be the name worth chasing at every Mornington meeting through the rest of the spring.
Best bookmakers for today’s racing
Mornington odds weren’t live at the time of writing for this meeting, so treat any early prices as a guide rather than gospel until fields firm closer to the jump. For comparing what’s on offer across the major Australian bookmakers before you commit, our full list below is kept updated through race day.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Mornington today?
The first race, The Big Screen Company (Bm70) over 1640m, jumps at 12:10pm, with Sportsbet Blackbook (Bm70) at 12:45pm and the Devilbend Golf Club (Bm84) rounding out this card at 1:20pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Mornington today?
Ethan Brown leads the jockeys’ room on the numbers that matter – nine rides at Mornington for five wins and five places, a 55.56% strike rate. C Maher tops the trainers with 12 runners for five wins and eight places at the track, a 66.67% placed rate, and he saddles three runners on today’s card.
What are the best bets at Mornington today?
Tsarine in the 12:45 is the standout – a last-start winner with Ethan Brown engaged, the rider with the best course numbers on the card. Electric Elvis in the same race and Celestial Zara in the 12:10 back it up as the supporting plays.
Where can I find the best odds for Mornington races?
Compare live markets across Australia’s major bookmakers using our odds comparison list above before placing a bet – prices move fast once fields are confirmed closer to race day.
What distances are today’s Mornington races run over?
All three races are run on the turf: 1640m for The Big Screen Company, then back to 1312m for both Sportsbet Blackbook and the Devilbend Golf Club.
