Nowra Racing Tips Sep 20 — Can Defiance Carry Topweight?
Mount Gambier Racing Tips Sep 20: Dabernig Strike Again?
Overview
Tom Dabernig doesn’t send runners to the South East without a plan, and his record at Mount Gambier backs that up: four winners and six placings from 18 runners at this track, a strike rate most visiting stables can only watch from the outer. That number is worth building today’s Mount Gambier racing tips around, because his runner in the opener, Fake Fiction, arrives having placed in two of its past two starts and fits the pattern of a horse a well-performed yard is about to cash in on.
It’s a small card — two maiden plates on the turf, 1312m and 1531m, both fields short on depth and short on standout form. That’s not a bad thing for a punter willing to do the digging. One race rewards a stable playing the percentages better than anyone else in the book; the other is close enough that the jockey on top matters as much as the horse underneath. Read on for the pick in each race, the trainer and jockey numbers that actually hold up, and where the money should go across the two-race card.
The Mount Gambier setup
Both races are run on turf for three-year-olds and up, first jump at 1:50pm and the second leg following at 2:28pm. Course form is thin across the board — most runners on today’s card have raced here once or not at all. Taajwar is the exception, with six runs at the track, but the results (a single minor placing) suggest the circuit hasn’t suited him so far, which is a mark against rather than for him in race two.
Jockey bookings tell more of a story. Sophie Potter’s raw percentage is the best in the room — three places from five rides, a 60% strike rate — but it’s a small sample next to Harry Grace, who wins a quarter of his rides at Mount Gambier and hits the frame better than one time in three from 28 rides, comfortably the deepest form line of anyone riding today. Kayla Crowther and Cian Macredmond both sit in the 40% bracket for place rate on genuine volume as well.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Potter | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Kayla Crowther | 32 | 4 | 13 | 12.5% | 40.6% |
| Cian Macredmond | 10 | 2 | 4 | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| A Stead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 22.2% | 44.4% |
| Harry Grace | 28 | 7 | 10 | 25.0% | 35.7% |
| Sarah Robbins | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Campbell Rawiller | 34 | 2 | 11 | 5.9% | 32.4% |
| MS K Walters | 40 | 2 | 12 | 5.0% | 30.0% |
On the training side, Dabernig’s number is the standout of the meeting — 22% winners and a placing better than one run in three from 18 starters, real course form built on volume rather than a hot run of luck. Craig Stewart isn’t far behind on a smaller base, while several of the other stables competing today are still hunting their first winner at the circuit.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Dabernig | 18 | 4 | 6 | 22.2% | 33.3% |
| Craig Stewart | 10 | 2 | 2 | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| S & J Jaensch | 10 | 1 | 1 | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| D I Dodson | 22 | 2 | 8 | 9.1% | 36.4% |
| Wayne Walters | 48 | 2 | 11 | 4.2% | 22.9% |
| D C Saxon | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| A J Clarken | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Shae Norton | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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Race by race
Race 1: Royal Flying Doctor Service, Mount Gambier Support Group Mdn Plate — 1:50pm, 1312m
Fake Fiction is the one to beat, and the case is built on more than a single number. Dabernig’s stable strike rate at this track is the best on the card, and the horse itself is doing its bit — placed in each of its past two runs after a modest middle stretch, with an average finishing position of third across its last four outings nationally. Jordyn Weatherley’s own numbers here are thin (one placing from seven rides, not enough to lean on by itself), but she’s on the right horse from the right stable, drawn barrier four with the lightest weight in the field at 120.1kg.
Say It How It Is is the danger. Two thirds from its past three starts is a genuine trend, not a one-off, and it placed on its only previous run at this track as well. Brooke King’s riding figures at Mount Gambier are modest (12 rides, one winner), which tempers the confidence slightly, and it’s worth noting stablemate Nicaloha races from the same Rachel Samsonenko yard but without the same form going forward — a sign of where the stable’s stronger hope probably lies. Viperstrike also holds some appeal as the safer minor-placegetter type, with Cian Macredmond finding the frame two times in five at the track. Starry Eridanus steps out first-up for the stable and gets the leading course rider in A Stead, but with no runs on the board it’s impossible to know how good it actually is.
The rest of the field is there to make up the numbers rather than threaten the top two. Calm The Press has been around the placings without breaking through, Dukey and Brazen Queen are both racing for stables still chasing their first winner at this track, and Goochee Gal’s recent figures (40-477) suggest she’s plateaued rather than improved. With the two fancied runners drawn one and four in a field of nine, neither has to overcome a wide gate to get the run its rider wants, which removes one of the usual excuses if either underperforms.
Back Fake Fiction to win, with Say It How It Is included in an exacta or place bet for those wanting a saver.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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Race 2: Haymes Paint & Mount Gambier Paint Plus Mdn Plate — 2:28pm, 1531m
Is there a horse in this race worth trusting, or just a jockey? Resilient Ruby’s own form line — three runs, no finish better than sixth — doesn’t inspire much on its own, but Harry Grace takes the ride, and he’s shown more here than any other rider declared today. A booking like that, on a horse with modest but not disastrous form, is enough to get involved for minor money even if it’s not one to build a multi around.
Iamthedevilselbow is the each-way alternative, drawn barrier six with a form line that’s more mixed than bad, though jockey Polly Brewster arrives with only three rides at the track and nothing meaningful to show for them. Taajwar carries the topweight at 127.8kg and has more course runs than anything else in the race, but that experience has produced just one placing from six attempts — an argument against rather than for. Miami Miller and Miss Narranga both return from breaks for stables without a track record to lean on, which makes them impossible to assess with any confidence.
The remainder of the field does little to change the picture. Peyton Jane and Roll With It are both racing below their best recent figures, Spotlight On Curly’s last four runs (9-6-7-8) are trending the wrong way, and Supreme Sailing steps out fresh off a break with a trainer who hasn’t had a runner at the track with a meaningful record. It’s the kind of maiden field where the form guide raises more questions than it answers, and where a stable’s willingness to put its best rider on tells you more than the horse’s own line does.
Hard to have a strong view here. If forced, Resilient Ruby on the strength of the booking, but this is a watch-and-learn race rather than one to bet with conviction — each-way only, and small.
The plays
NAP: Fake Fiction (Race 1, 1:50pm). Pair the best trainer number on the card with a horse that’s gone forward at its past two starts and there isn’t much reason to look elsewhere for the main bet of the day.
Value: Say It How It Is (Race 1). The market is more likely to file this one under “minor placegetter” than winner, but two thirds from its last three runs, plus a placing on its only previous run at this circuit, reads like a horse building toward one rather than just making up the field.
Banker: Viperstrike (Race 1). The safest of the lot for multi purposes — minor placings in two of its past four runs and a jockey who finds the frame in four of every ten rides at this track.
Each-way: Resilient Ruby (Race 2). The horse’s own form doesn’t scream confidence, but Harry Grace is the most convincing rider at the track today by a distance, and that alone is worth a small each-way interest.
Course angle: Tom Dabernig. Twenty-two per cent winners and a placing more than one time in three from 18 runners is a real, repeatable number — worth following the next time his colours turn up in a Mount Gambier declaration, not just today.
If Dabernig keeps finding the winner’s stall at this rate, he’ll be the first name worth checking on every Mount Gambier card this spring, not just the ones where his runner looks the obvious standout on paper.
Best Bookmakers for Today’s Racing
Live odds weren’t populated across bookmakers at the time of writing, so it’s worth shopping the market before backing anything on this card — small fields like these two maiden plates can carry meaningfully different prices from one bookmaker to the next, particularly for something like Fake Fiction or Resilient Ruby if backing each-way.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Mount Gambier today?
The first race, the Royal Flying Doctor Service Mdn Plate over 1312m, jumps at 1:50pm, with the second leg of the two-race card, the Haymes Paint Mdn Plate over 1531m, following at 2:28pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Mount Gambier today?
Tom Dabernig leads the trainers’ room on today’s numbers — four winners and six placings from 18 runners at this track, a 22% strike rate. Among the jockeys, Harry Grace has the deepest and most convincing form line, with 7 wins and 10 placings from 28 rides here.
What are the best bets at Mount Gambier today?
Fake Fiction (Race 1, 1:50pm) is the pick of the day, backed by Dabernig’s course record and two straight placings. Say It How It Is offers each-way value in the same race, having placed in two of its past three starts.
Which race looks the toughest to solve at Mount Gambier today?
Race 2. It lacks a standout, with several runners resuming from a break or carrying modest recent form; Resilient Ruby gets the nod largely on Harry Grace’s booking rather than its own form line.
Where can punters find the best odds for Mount Gambier races?
Live odds weren’t available across bookmakers at the time of writing, so compare prices with a couple of providers before betting — see the bookmaker options below.
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