Overview
Lomu has finished in the first three in all four of its runs over the past 90 days, with a win among them, and on Friday night it lines up in a Class 1 handicap at Pakenham from the inside gate. That is the most bankable form line on an eight race card that otherwise asks a lot of questions.
The other story is the man in the saddle all night. Damian Lane rides in every race, and his record here is the kind you notice: five wins from 14 rides at the track, with 11 of those 14 finishing in the first three. He picks up two C J Waller runners in the maidens, a last start winner for Reece Goodwin in the staying race, and In A Tizzy for M Price and M Kent Jnr in the Class 1.
These Pakenham racing tips cover all eight races on a Good to Soft surface, from the 1750m maiden at 6:15PM through to the Bm66 over 1531m at 9:45PM. Distances run from 1094m up to a marathon 2734m. You get a pick in every race, the course numbers worth knowing, and the plays we would actually make. Bookmaker markets were not open when this was written, so no prices are quoted.
Pakenham: the setup
Friday nights at Pakenham draw big fields, and tonight is no different, with 14 or more acceptors in four of the eight races. Course form is better than usual for a Friday night card: ten of tonight’s runners have been here three or more times, and a handful have turned it into wins.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Bandit | 5 | 2 | 4 | 40.0 | 80.0 |
| Little Richo | 4 | 2 | 3 | 50.0 | 75.0 |
| Light Moves | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.3 | 66.7 |
| Ten Warriors | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 66.7 |
| Blondeau | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 60.0 |
| Hey Bella | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Diggers Aim | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25.0 | 50.0 |
The riding ranks are led by Damian Lane on strike rate, but the volume belongs to the locals. Lachlan Neindorf has 20 wins from 122 rides here and Jye Mcneil 17 from 118, while Jamie Melham wins with better than one in four of his Pakenham rides.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lane | 14 | 5 | 11 | 35.7 | 78.6 |
| Jabez Johnstone | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16.7 | 66.7 |
| Jamie Melham | 22 | 6 | 12 | 27.3 | 54.5 |
| L Nolen | 68 | 12 | 32 | 17.6 | 47.1 |
| Thomas Stockdale | 67 | 10 | 31 | 14.9 | 46.3 |
| Jye Mcneil | 118 | 17 | 53 | 14.4 | 44.9 |
| Lachlan Neindorf | 122 | 20 | 51 | 16.4 | 41.8 |
On the training side, P G Moody and Katherine Coleman have the most winners here among tonight’s stables, 20 from 91, and they send five runners. C Maher places more than half of his Pakenham runners and has two in the 2734m race.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Rae | 17 | 5 | 10 | 29.4 | 58.8 |
| C Maher | 67 | 14 | 36 | 20.9 | 53.7 |
| J D Sadler | 27 | 5 | 14 | 18.5 | 51.9 |
| P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 91 | 20 | 46 | 22.0 | 50.5 |
| M Price & M Kent Jnr | 100 | 19 | 49 | 19.0 | 49.0 |
| Charlotte Littlefield | 27 | 8 | 11 | 29.6 | 40.7 |
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Pakenham racing tips: race by race
Race 1: The Valley @ Southside Pakenham Mdn Plate, 6:15PM, 1750m
Star Je Taime has gone 6, 5, 3, 2 in four starts, and that is the kind of line a maiden draws just before it wins. Two of its three runs in the past 90 days have ended in the first three, and nothing else in this field has been as consistent over that stretch.
Damian Lane takes the ride for D T O’Brien, who has two wins from 11 runners at Pakenham, and barrier 3 lets Lane put it wherever he wants over the 1750m.
Ambition In Bloom is the danger. It has had only two starts, a fourth and then a third, and the M M Laurie stable places with 11 of its 25 runners here. Another step forward puts it right in this. Star Je Taime to win.
Race 2: Ladbrokes More On Tote Win Mdn Plate, 6:45PM, 1531m
Who wants it? That is the question in a 14 runner maiden where nobody has won in the past 90 days and the best recent form belongs to a horse with one third from three runs.
That horse is Tecknoking, which ran third last start for C I Brown, and the stable has a second string here in Dextrose. We lean to Tecknoking on that run alone. Galivad is the one that worries us: a fourth on debut for Gavin Bedggood, who places with more than half of his Pakenham runners. King Campania has Lane and the Waller stable, but its last two runs were eighth and ninth.
Small win bet on Tecknoking, nothing more. This is a watch race.
Race 3: Edsa Group Mdn Plate, 7:15PM, 1312m
Kokeshi ran second last start, its only run in the past 90 days, and nothing in the field has a better last start. J F Moloney has it fit, Jye Mcneil rides, and barrier 2 is a gift over 1312m in a big field.
The worry with Kokeshi is that the long term line is patchy, with fourths and a seventh before that second. But the run that matters is the latest one, and it suggests the penny has dropped.
Iftihar is the obvious danger. It has run third four times and placed in one of its two recent starts, and it carries just 55.5kg with Caitlin Hollowood aboard. It just keeps finding one or two better. Heavy Is The Head has placed in two of its last three but jumps from 16, which is a long way out. Kokeshi to win, Iftihar for the exacta.
Race 4: Drummond Golf (Bm66), 7:45PM, 2734m
Melek and Superstock both won last start, and they get to the same place by different routes. Melek has the steadier profile: four runs in the past 90 days for a win and two other placings. Superstock has the jockey, with Damian Lane aboard for Reece Goodwin, whose stable places with almost half its Pakenham runners.
The weights split them slightly. Superstock carries 60.5kg to Melek‘s 59.5kg, and over a 2734m marathon that extra kilo adds up. C Maher has 14 winners from 67 runners here, and Jabez Johnstone has been in the first three on four of his six Pakenham rides. Barrier 11 is the one knock on Melek, but over this trip there is time to find cover.
Maher’s second runner, Foix, won in the past 90 days too and should not be dismissed. Amawasha has placed in three of its five recent runs at the light end of the weights. We side with Melek to win, with a saver on Superstock.
Race 5: Mittys Hcp (C1), 8:15PM, 1531m
Lomu is the best bet on the card. Four runs in the past 90 days have produced a win and three other placings, and its average finishing position across that stretch is 1.5. Form like that does not need dressing up.
The draw helps too. Lomu has barrier 1 in a ten runner field, so B Rawiller can sit on the fence and save ground through the turn. The one doubt is the stable’s Pakenham record, with E & D Browne having won with only one of 44 runners here. We are betting on the horse, not the trainer’s strike rate, and the horse has been in the first three every time lately.
Two runners can trouble it. Autumn Rainbow won on its only start at the track and gets the P G Moody and Katherine Coleman yard plus L Nolen, a pairing with nine wins from 32 rides together at Pakenham. In A Tizzy won one and placed in the other of its two recent starts, and Lane rides. The catch there is that Lane has never won for M Price and M Kent Jnr in 15 rides together, though six of them have placed.
Lomu to win. It is the anchor of the night.
Race 6: Msc Signs (Bm62), 8:45PM, 1094m
Mr Tickles has won two of its last three, and the form line 1, 4, 0, 6, 1, 1 shows a horse peaking at the right time. The market will want it, and it deserves to be favourite.
The problem is the job it has been given. Mr Tickles carries 61.5kg, the joint topweight, and jumps from barrier 11 in a 1094m sprint where there is no time to recover lost ground. It also gets a rider who has had only one ride at the track.
Bifrost is the safer play. It has placed in all four of its runs in the past 90 days without winning, so you know what you are getting: a horse that runs on every time but needs things to go right. B Rawiller rides and 59.5kg is manageable. Favour The Bold comes from the Charlotte Littlefield stable, which wins with nearly three in ten of its Pakenham runners.
Mr Tickles on top, Bifrost each-way.
Race 7: Ranvet (Bm66), 9:15PM, 1312m
King West is the most reliable horse in the race. Five runs in the past 90 days have produced a win and three other placings, and it carries 58.5kg with Caitlin Hollowood in the saddle. E Jusufovic has two winners from 11 runners at Pakenham, and this one looks well placed.
Bardia’s Dream won last start and has a win from two visits to the track. It has placed in three of its four recent runs as well. Jye Mcneil rides for Simon Zahra, and barrier 13 is the reason we prefer King West. Ten Warriors deserves a mention, having placed in two of three course starts and run second last time, with Jamie Melham in the saddle.
King West to win, Bardia’s Dream and Ten Warriors in the exotics.
Race 8: Ladbrokes New Betslip (Bm66), 9:45PM, 1531m
Little Richo is a Pakenham horse. It has been in the first three on three of its four runs at the track, winning twice, two wins from three runs in the past 90 days, and the J D Sadler stable places with more than half of its runners here. Damien Thornton rides and 59.5kg is a fair weight for a horse in this kind of form.
The danger is Zourain, which won last start and has won two of its five runs in the past 90 days. It won on its only visit to Pakenham as well. R D Griffiths has nine winners from 44 runners here. The catch is 61.5kg from barrier 13, which is a big ask over 1531m.
Let It Beel is the value runner. It has placed in three of its four recent starts, with a win among them, and it carries the Nolen and Moody combination from barrier 2. Blue Bandit has the best course record in the race, four placings from five runs here, but its recent form has dropped off.
Little Richo to win. Let It Beel each-way.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Lomu (Race 5, 8:15PM). Four runs, four times in the first three, and the inside gate. In a Class 1 that is as close to a sure thing as Pakenham gets on a Friday night.
Value: Let It Beel (Race 8, 9:45PM). The market will focus on Little Richo and Zourain, but this one has placed in three of its last four with the best combination at the track on board.
Banker: King West (Race 7, 9:15PM). Four placings from five recent runs, one of them a win. Ideal for multis.
Each-way: Bifrost (Race 6, 8:45PM). Four placings from four recent runs and no win. It keeps filling the frame, which makes it a place bet first.
Course angle: L Nolen for P G Moody and Katherine Coleman. Nine wins from 32 rides together at Pakenham, with 18 of them in the first three, and they team up five times tonight, with Autumn Rainbow and Let It Beel the pick of them.
If Damian Lane keeps landing in the first three on eight out of ten Pakenham rides, his Friday night bookings here will be worth following all summer.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Pakenham today?
Race 1, The Valley @ Southside Pakenham Mdn Plate over 1750m, jumps at 6:15PM local time. The last race, the Ladbrokes New Betslip (Bm66) over 1531m, is at 9:45PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Pakenham?
Damian Lane has five wins from 14 rides at Pakenham, and Lachlan Neindorf has the most wins of tonight’s riders with 20 from 122. Among trainers, P G Moody and Katherine Coleman lead with 20 winners from 91 runners, and M Price and M Kent Jnr have 19 from 100.
What are the best bets at Pakenham today?
Lomu in Race 5 is the NAP, with a win and three placings from four runs over the past 90 days. King West in Race 7 is the banker, Let It Beel in Race 8 is the value play, and Bifrost in Race 6 is the each-way bet.
Where can I find the best odds for Pakenham races?
Markets were not open when these Pakenham predictions were written. Use the bookmaker table above and each race’s racecard on Racingbase to compare Pakenham odds once betting opens.