Caulfield Racing Tips: Can Cosmic Crusader Win the Memsie?
Rosehill Racing Tips Aug 29 — Can Avista Go Four?
Avista has won three from three since resuming this campaign, and nothing else on the Rosehill card is building a streak like it heading into the Mounties Group (Bm78) at 1.30pm. That’s the horse driving these Rosehill racing tips for August 29, but it isn’t the only story on a stacked eight-race card that runs from a Midway (Bm72) opener through to the Listed San Domenico Stakes for three-year-olds. Zac Lloyd rides seven of the eight races today, a workload that says plenty about where the stable confidence sits, and the numbers back the faith. He’s the leading rider at this track among today’s jockey colony on both wins and placings. Add in eight runners for C J Waller and a genuinely deep 22-horse Highway field building toward next month’s Kosciuszko, and there’s a lot to work through before the first jump. Here’s how the card shapes up, race by race, with a NAP, a value play and the angles worth following.
Reading the Rosehill card
Track condition wasn’t confirmed on our data feed at time of writing, so treat any pace assumptions as general rather than rail-specific. What is confirmed is a turf card running from 1203m sprint dashes up to the 2187m staying test in the Merrylands Rsl, with the Midway, two Highway-style handicaps and two black-type three-year-old features rounding out a genuinely varied eight races.
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Course form worth noting: nine of today’s runners carry three or more runs at Rosehill, which is enough of a sample to table properly. Silvanito stands out, with three placings from four course runs, a profile worth remembering in the Bankstown Sports later on.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silvanito | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Invader Zim | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Pokerjack | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Red Rags To Bulls | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Formal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Persian Wonder | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Belle Detelle | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 25.0% |
Zac Lloyd’s book is the standout jockey angle. Across 68 rides at Rosehill he’s won at a 30.9% clip and placed exactly half the time, a genuine specialist number rather than a small-sample fluke, and he’s booked for seven runners today including Aethelwulf, Joint Venture and Guest House. Tim Clark and Siena Grima both sit above 39% on the place table too, which matters given how many rides they’ll share between them.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Lloyd | 68 | 21 | 34 | 30.9% | 50.0% |
| S Clipperton | 33 | 4 | 16 | 12.1% | 48.5% |
| C Schofield | 35 | 6 | 16 | 17.1% | 45.7% |
| Tim Clark | 61 | 13 | 27 | 21.3% | 44.3% |
| Siena Grima | 56 | 9 | 22 | 16.1% | 39.3% |
| A Hyeronimus | 41 | 5 | 16 | 12.2% | 39.0% |
On the training side, C J Waller sends the biggest team by far, eight runners off a 213-run Rosehill history that reads 16.4% winners and 40.4% placegetters, the kind of volume that makes his runners worth respecting even in the weaker-form races. M J Dunn’s smaller book (four runners today) actually carries the best strike rate of anyone at the track with real history behind it: 5 wins and 8 places from 11 course runners. G Waterhouse & A Bott have five runners spread across the card, headlined by a three-pronged raid on the Up And Coming Stakes.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M J Dunn | 11 | 5 | 8 | 45.5% | 72.7% |
| G Waterhouse & A Bott | 54 | 7 | 25 | 13.0% | 46.3% |
| C J Waller | 213 | 35 | 86 | 16.4% | 40.4% |
| Richard & Will Freedman | 33 | 7 | 13 | 21.2% | 39.4% |
| Michael Freedman | 33 | 6 | 13 | 18.2% | 39.4% |
| A & S Freedman | 13 | 2 | 5 | 15.4% | 38.5% |
| Bjorn Baker | 74 | 8 | 28 | 10.8% | 37.8% |
M M Laurie also saddles three runners today (Taka Speed, Glasgow Lass, Harry Got Styles) but without the course volume to back a number. Worth watching rather than backing blind.
Race by race
Race 1: Midway (Bm72) – 11:45am, 1969m
Orange Tsunami has strung two wins together to open this Midway and the underlying numbers back the eye test: five runs in the past three months for two wins and five placings, which is to say it hasn’t missed the frame once in that stretch. S Clipperton takes the ride for Richard & Will Freedman, a stable with a genuinely solid record at this track (39.4% placegetters from 33 runners). The one that could spoil the story is Doradus, who has finally cashed in a run of 2-4-2-4 minor placings with a win last start and now gets Zac Lloyd, the best rider on the grounds today. If Doradus is going to build on that breakthrough, this is the sort of moderate 1969m grade where it happens. Each-way on Orange Tsunami, with Doradus workable as a roughie in exotics.
Race 2: Buy Your Kosciuszko Tickets At Tab Highway Hcp (C2) – 12:20pm, 1531m
Twenty-two runners make this the hardest form puzzle on the card, and the safest way through it is consistency rather than a hot streak. Xtreme hasn’t finished worse than second in six runs, two wins and four seconds, the kind of card that rarely goes badly wrong, and Regan Bayliss takes over for Paul Snowden’s stable. The concern is a field this size always has scope for traffic problems, and Zou Force arrives with three wins and a placing from its past four starts, a genuine speed-figure rival if the gaps open up. Giddy Up Griff (two wins from three runs) is the each-way roughie worth a mention too. Back Xtreme each-way rather than for the win outright. The price won’t be big given the profile, but a field this deep is no place to bet strictly on the nose.
Race 3: Merrylands Rsl (Bm78) – 12:55pm, 2187m
Aethelwulf is the value play of the day. Three wins from its past four starts is a 75% win rate over a genuine recent sample, and the one blemish in that run was a fifth, with everything else a win. Zac Lloyd rides again, which matters given his numbers at this track, and the step up to 2187m looks well within range for a horse whose only worse finish came at a much sharper trip. Appeared is the type to worry about: first-up winner this campaign after closing out last preparation with a win too, giving it back-to-back victories either side of a break, and Bjorn Baker’s stable places nearly 38% of its Rosehill runners. Taka Speed has also turned the corner with a win last start after a string of 4-5 finishes, but it looks the third string here. This is the best betting race on the card for mine – win bet on Aethelwulf, with Appeared workable each-way underneath.
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Race 4: Mounties Group (Bm78) – 1:30pm, 1640m
There’s a clear favourite for top pick of the day here, and it isn’t close. Avista has won three from three since coming back into work, a perfect recent sample rather than a two-run fluke, and Braith Nock keeps the ride for the Messara & Gavranich stable. Just In Time offers the contrast: three runs, one win and two unplaced efforts either side of it, the type still working out whether it’s up to this grade rather than the type building toward it. Beside The Ocean is the wildcard from the Waller camp. The trainer-jockey combination of Zac Lloyd and C J Waller has been outstanding at this specific track, six wins and eight places from 14 runs together here for a 42.9% win rate, but the horse itself was well beaten last start and needs to find that form again rather than lean purely on the numbers. None of that changes the read on Avista: three wins on the trot, a jockey who knows the horse, and a grade it hasn’t been tested above yet. This is the best bet on the card. Win bet, and happy to be the anchor leg of a multi.
Race 5: Bankstown Sports (Bm78) – 2:05pm, 1640m
Mr Miller’s card reads 1-2-2-1 across its last four starts, hasn’t missed a placing in that stretch, and the most recent of those was a win. Tommy Berry rides for C J Waller, and while that particular partnership’s overall Rosehill record is modest, the horse’s own recent trend is the stronger argument here. Cuban Cigar is the danger on the up – a win, a win and a second across its past three starts after a flatter middle patch, riding the improving curve at the right time. Silvanito is the course specialist to keep in mind too, with three placings from four runs at this track specifically, even if its most recent form (a third) is nothing flashy. Each-way on Mr Miller, with Cuban Cigar the swing for the forecast.
Race 6: Campbelltown Catholic Club (Bm78) – 2:40pm, 1203m
Hard to have a confident view in this one. Amazing Eagle is the pick on trend: an eighth, then back-to-back seconds, which at least points the right way, for Bjorn Baker and Tim Clark. Kimberley Secrets has been the model of consistency across six runs (2-2-1-2-2) but faded to fifth last start and needs to show that wasn’t the start of a decline. Oh Arthur is the each-way swing: lightly raced, won its second career start after a debut sixth, and the write-up on it is short simply because there isn’t much history to go on. If forced, Amazing Eagle each-way, but this is a watch race rather than one to bet with confidence.
Race 7: Canterbury-Hurlstone Park Rsl Up And Coming Stakes – 3:15pm, 1422m
Joint Venture against Savagram is the genuine clash of styles in this three-year-old feature. Joint Venture has won at its only Rosehill start, backed that up with a win last time out after opening with a third, and gets Zac Lloyd again for the powerful C J Waller stable. It’s a horse still building a record rather than a finished product, but everything in that record points forward. Savagram is unbeaten from a single start, which is a data point rather than a trend, but it arrives with the weight of G Waterhouse & A Bott sending three runners into this race alone: Savagram, Savvy Diamond and Plagiarism. Tim Clark’s 44.3% Rosehill place rate is nothing to dismiss either. Savvy Diamond (a win and a second from two runs) rounds out that same powerful team as the each-way swing. This is a genuinely open feature between a horse with course form on the board and a stable sending three chances at once. Win bet on Joint Venture, but Savagram is the each-way I’d want covered if the market drifts it.
Race 8: Smithfield Rsl San Domenico Stakes – 3:50pm, 1203m
Does Music Time’s hot recent trend hold up against a fresher-looking rival? Three wins from its past four starts is a strong number to close out the day’s card on, trained by G P Vella with K McEvoy back on board, and the only blemish was a minor placing last start rather than anything alarming. Guest House is the one that can beat it. It hasn’t finished worse than third all preparation, comes off a win last start, and gets Zac Lloyd for his seventh ride of the day, capping a card where his book has been the standing angle. Blue Door (a win and a second from two runs) is the roughie worth a smaller saver if the top two get tied up with each other in a small field. Win bet on Music Time, with Guest House the each-way cover.
The plays
Pulling these Rosehill racing tips together into a card: the NAP is Avista. A trainer who’s placed it perfectly through a break, a rider who’s steered every step of the comeback, and a Bm78 grade it’s yet to be tested above – that combination is why the 1.30pm gets the headline slot on today’s card. Aethelwulf is the value play in the Merrylands Rsl at 12.55pm: three wins from four recent starts with Zac Lloyd aboard is a stronger form line than its profile suggests it should carry. Xtreme is the banker for multis: six runs without missing a top-two finish is about as safe as form gets in a 22-horse field. Silvanito is the each-way play on the day, with three placings from four runs at this specific track. And the course angle to file away: Zac Lloyd rode seven times today and sits on a 30.9% win rate here across 68 career rides – that’s not a jockey to bet against when he’s on the second string. If Lloyd keeps getting this kind of support from Rosehill stables, backing his rides blind starts to look less like a gimmick and more like a strategy.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Rosehill today?
The Midway (Bm72) opens the eight-race card at 11:45am, running through to the Smithfield Rsl San Domenico Stakes at 3:50pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Rosehill today?
Zac Lloyd leads the jockey colony with a 30.9% win rate and 50% place rate from 68 career rides at the track, and he’s booked for seven of today’s eight races. C J Waller brings the biggest team with eight runners, backed by a 16.4% win and 40.4% place record from 213 Rosehill runners, while M J Dunn’s smaller four-runner book carries the best strike rate of the day at 45.5% wins from 11 course starters.
What are the best bets at Rosehill today?
Avista is the NAP in the 1.30pm Mounties Group off three straight wins this preparation. Aethelwulf is the value play in the 12.55pm Merrylands Rsl on the back of three wins from its past four starts.
Where can I find the best odds for Rosehill races?
Bookmaker markets weren’t locked in on our data feed at the time of writing, so compare prices across two or three bookmakers closer to race time rather than betting into the first number you see – especially in bigger fields like the 22-runner Highway Hcp.
Which is the best betting race at Rosehill today?
The Merrylands Rsl (Bm78) at 12.55pm stands out – Aethelwulf’s recent form is strong enough to bet with confidence and the danger, Appeared, has a clear story of its own. It’s the race these Rosehill racing tips lean on hardest outside of the NAP.
