Fannie Bay Racing Tips 25 Sep — Can Clarke Strike Twice?
Scone Racing Tips Sept 25: Is Magic Merlin Too Good?
Overview
Brett and Georgie Cavanough don’t send five runners to Scone on a whim, and when four of them go out with Mitchell Bell in the saddle, that’s not a coincidence either. It’s the single biggest thread running through this Scone racing tips preview: a leading local stable loading the truck for its home track, with one rider doing most of the work. Add in a proven course performer in the Switzerland Country Boosted Handicap and a couple of promising types stepping up off placed debuts, and there’s plenty to work with across a compact four-race card.
It’s a small book by Scone standards, run entirely on turf across sprint and middle distances, from the 984m minimum to 1750m. Two maidens open proceedings before the class rises through a benchmark and a Class 1 to close out the afternoon. None of it is complicated once you know where to look, and that’s what the rest of this preview sorts out: who has genuine course form, who’s here on reputation alone, and where the money should go.
What Scone gives us today
Course form worth trusting is thin across this field. Of the 33 runners with any recorded history at Scone, only three carry three or more runs at the track. Everyone else is working off one or two visits, which is a data point, not a trend. Where the numbers do mean something is in the jockeys’ room and among the local trainers, several of whom have five-plus rides or three-plus runners here today and the volume to back a real read.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Merlin | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.33% | 66.67% |
| Krystina Kerima | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.00% | 33.33% |
| Supreme Statement | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Everyone else on the card has raced here once or twice, if at all, so any other course claim is worth treating carefully. It’s a start, not a story.
The jockeys’ room tells a clearer tale. Jean Van Overmeire places better than half her Scone rides, and A Bullock isn’t far behind with a clear winning edge on top of that.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Van Overmeire | 23 | 4 | 13 | 17.39% | 56.52% |
| A Bullock | 70 | 20 | 38 | 28.57% | 54.29% |
| Mitchell Bell | 50 | 8 | 26 | 16.00% | 52.00% |
| O A Dalton | 13 | 2 | 6 | 15.38% | 46.15% |
| MS M Weir | 59 | 9 | 27 | 15.25% | 45.76% |
On the training side, P Messara & L Gavranich are the standout by strike rate, placing almost two-thirds of the runners they’ve brought here over 32 starts. Lou Mary and the Cavanough stable back that up with volume and consistency of their own.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Messara & L Gavranich | 32 | 12 | 20 | 37.50% | 62.50% |
| Lou Mary | 15 | 4 | 9 | 26.67% | 60.00% |
| Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 61 | 14 | 31 | 22.95% | 50.82% |
| S I Singleton | 68 | 13 | 34 | 19.12% | 50.00% |
| Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald | 52 | 7 | 25 | 13.46% | 48.08% |
Race by race
Race 1: Emirates Park Mdn Plate — 1:00pm, 984m
Peter Messara and Leah Gavranich don’t often hand a first starter to A Bullock without reason, and that’s the case for Mainstay here. There’s no form to read, since this is a debut, but the stable places almost two in three runners it sends to Scone and Bullock is the most reliable rider at the track by strike rate. That’s a strong combination to fall in on for a horse with nothing bad on record, even carrying 130kg.
The one with the clearest improvement line is Spice Trail, who went from a well-beaten sixth on debut to second at her only other start. That’s a big step forward, though William Stanley has struggled for the podium in his Scone rides and it’s worth factoring in. Apache Command has placed twice in his past four runs, including third last start, but his solitary run at this circuit ended in eighth, which raises a fair question about whether the track suits him. Our Astute Lass has also trended the right way, up from fourth to third last start.
It’s a genuinely open maiden with more query marks than certainties. Small each-way stake on Mainstay for the stable and rider strength, with Spice Trail the one to note if she’s on offer at any price.
Race 2: Private Life Country Boosted Mdn Plate — 1:35pm, 1531m
A Little Bit Dusty has raced once and finished second, and everything about the booking says the stable expects more. Mitchell Bell goes back on for Brett and Georgie Cavanough, a combination that’s produced a 51.61% place strike rate from 31 rides together at this circuit. A three-year-old fit enough to back up quickly off a placed debut is usually one still working out how good it is.
Irish Accolade is the one with the runs on the board to worry about. Ten runs in the past three months for three placings is the profile of a professional type who keeps knocking without quite getting there, though his trainer’s modest 8.00% place rate at Scone from 25 runs counts against him finally breaking through here. Lope de Luna, drawn barrier one and with a placing from his three runs, could also get the run of the race in front.
Back A Little Bit Dusty to win, with Irish Accolade the each-way cover if the market lets him drift.
Race 3: Switzerland Country Boosted Hcp (C2) — 2:10pm, 1750m
Two horses define this race, and they do it in completely different ways. Magic Merlin is the model of consistency: two wins and a placing from three runs at Scone, and six runs in the past three months for two wins, three further placings and an average finishing position of 2.17. Mitchell Bell rides him again for the Cavanough stable, the same combination doing the damage across today’s card, and nothing else in this field matches that level of reliability at this circuit specifically.
Nielsen Park is the contrast. Four placings from five runs this campaign, including two wins, but an eighth mixed in among them shows the in-and-out streak that keeps him an each-way proposition rather than a banker. Think Back has a pair of wins earlier in this prep, but his form has cooled since, down to second and then sixth in his last two runs, and he needs the pace on offer to suit if he’s to figure again.
This is the best betting race on the card. Win bet on Magic Merlin, and there’s no harm using Nielsen Park underneath in exotics for the place strike rate alone.
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Race 4: Wendy Smith Memorial Hcp (C1) — 2:45pm, 1422m
Does Force March’s topweight undo the trend he’s built, or does the form carry him through it anyway? Two placings and a breakthrough win from his last three runs is the strongest recent trajectory in the race, but 134.4kg is a stiff ask of a horse still working out how good he is.
Summer Force is the alternative case. Only two runs to his name, a second on debut and a win last start, but he does it from 121.2kg, more than 13kg better off than Force March at the weights. Lou Mary’s Scone numbers are strong and Jean Van Overmeire is the pick of the jockeys’ room by place rate today, so the team behind him is doing its part too. Dunquin, with back-to-back seconds in his last two runs, rounds out the placing chances.
Each-way Force March for the form, but Summer Force is the one carrying the least risk if the topweight proves too much for its rival to concede.
The plays
Pulling these Scone racing tips together into what to actually do with your money:
The horse we’re prepared to back the hardest is Magic Merlin in the 2:10pm. Three visits to Scone, two wins and a third: there’s no cleaner course profile on the card, and Mitchell Bell keeps the ride for the stable sending five runners out today.
For value, A Little Bit Dusty in the 1:35pm won’t draw the same attention as the more battle-hardened runners around her, but a placed debut for a stable and rider combination that places one in every two starts together at this track says she’s better than a formless outsider.
Summer Force is the banker for anyone building a multi: lightly raced, lightly weighted, ridden by the meeting’s most reliable placer in Jean Van Overmeire, and already showing more than most of what beat him. For each-way cover, Nielsen Park’s four placings from five runs make him hard to leave out of exotics in the 2:10pm.
The course angle to file away is Cavanough and Bell. Five runners for the stable today, four of them with Bell aboard. If that pairing keeps showing up at Scone this often, following the colours is going to keep paying its way.
Best bookmakers for today’s racing
If you’re planning to back any of today’s Scone selections, it pays to compare prices before the first race jumps rather than settling for whatever’s on screen first. The operators below cover the standard win, place and same-race multi markets for the Scone card, along with the broader Saturday and midweek racing calendar.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Scone today?
First race off at Scone is the Emirates Park Maiden Plate at 1:00pm, with four races taking the card through to the Wendy Smith Memorial Handicap at 2:45pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Scone today?
P Messara & L Gavranich lead the trainers’ numbers, placing 62.50% of their runners from 32 starts at Scone, with Lou Mary (60.00% from 15) and the Cavanough stable (50.82% from 61 runs, and five runners on today’s card) close behind. In the saddle, Jean Van Overmeire places 56.52% of her Scone rides and A Bullock backs that up at 54.29% from 70 starts, with a stronger winning edge on top.
What are the best bets at Scone today?
Magic Merlin in the Switzerland Country Boosted Handicap (2:10pm) is the pick of the day off two wins and a placing from three runs at this circuit. A Little Bit Dusty in the earlier Country Boosted Maiden Plate (1:35pm) is the value angle for anyone chasing a bigger return, and Summer Force in the Wendy Smith Memorial (2:45pm) is the safer multi leg.
Where can I find the best odds for Scone races today?
Odds weren’t yet live when this preview was written, so compare prices across the licensed bookmakers listed above once markets open closer to the first jump to make sure you’re getting the best number on race day.
Is there a standout trainer story at Scone today?
Brett and Georgie Cavanough have saddled up five runners across the four-race card and booked Mitchell Bell for four of them. It’s the kind of volume booking that turns a maiden or a handicap into a stable-form play as much as a horse-form one, and the single biggest repeatable angle on today’s program.
