Taree Racing Tips Sept 22: Does Rich Star Complete It?
Swan Hill Racing Tips: Can Monix Make It Four Straight?
Overview
Monix has never lost at Swan Hill. Three starts, three wins, and Nathan Hobson sends the five-year-old back out in the Footts Swan Hill Demolition Group Bm62 with that record fully intact: the kind of angle that makes an otherwise ordinary six-race card worth digging into. These Swan Hill racing tips work through all six races, from a wide-open maiden stacked with first starters through to a 2625m staying test to finish, with the trainers and jockeys who know this track best forming the backbone of the read. Expect a heavy hand from the Hayes stable and from Hobson, both of whom have banked plenty of placings here over the past year, plus a couple of lightly raced types who look sharper than their public form suggests. Read on for the pick in each race, the value play the market may be underrating, and the angle worth following all day.
What Swan Hill gives us today
Four runners in today’s field carry genuine course history (three or more runs at the track), and the split between them tells its own story before a barrier’s even loaded.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monix | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Reward The Sheriff | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Sakasu | 3 | 1 | 1 | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Donvilla d’Or | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Monix’s line is the standout. Three from three is rare at any track, while Donvilla d’Or’s record is the reminder that not every repeat visitor improves with experience. Beyond those four, course form across the rest of the field is thin: mostly one or two runs, not enough to lean on with any confidence.
The jockey and trainer numbers carry more weight, because the sample sizes are real. Among today’s riders, D Yendall tops the place-rate table from a decent book of rides, and H Coffey and B Rawiller aren’t far behind.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Yendall | 19 | 5 | 12 | 26.3% | 63.2% |
| H Coffey | 30 | 8 | 17 | 26.7% | 56.7% |
| B Rawiller | 25 | 7 | 14 | 28.0% | 56.0% |
| John Allen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| W Gordon | 32 | 4 | 15 | 12.5% | 46.9% |
| Neil Farley | 27 | 2 | 11 | 7.4% | 40.7% |
On the training side, Toby Lake and Ben, Will & JD Hayes lead the place-rate numbers, but it’s Nathan Hobson’s volume that stands out: six runners on today’s card and 31 at this track across his career, more than anyone else in the race book.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Lake | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Ben, Will & JD Hayes | 22 | 5 | 13 | 22.7% | 59.1% |
| Nathan Hobson | 31 | 5 | 12 | 16.1% | 38.7% |
| Patrick Payne | 19 | 3 | 6 | 15.8% | 31.6% |
| T Fitzsimmons | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| C J Cassar | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20.0% | 20.0% |
Race by race
Race 1: Bet365 Same Race Multi Mdn Plate — 1:30pm, 1750m
King Fleance has had just two runs and already looks the type worth following through a maiden grind: one placing from two starts, for an average finishing position of third. Richard Cully has landed one of his two runners at Swan Hill to date, too small a sample to call a trend, but a data point worth banking when most of this field is still finding its feet. My Alpha Sonic has had four runs for a single placing and looks the swiftest type to find the line without quite getting there, ridden again by M Aitken for MS T Davies, and it’s the obvious danger if King Fleance’s inexperience shows. Alarming looks less threatening than a glance at the formline suggests: two runs inside the past three months for no placings, an average finish back around seventh, and Sarah Field is yet to win aboard anything in 17 rides at this track. Over 1750m, sustained effort matters more than raw speed, and King Fleance’s shape (two runs, one placing, still learning) looks the more durable profile. Back King Fleance each-way, with My Alpha Sonic the swap if the market drifts him late.
Race 2: Jarrod Arentz Electrical & Solar Solutions Mdn Plate — 2:00pm, 1312m
Can Silent Devotion’s trajectory carry into a deeper field? Two runs this campaign have produced two placings, for an average finish of 2.5, and Henry Dwyer sends the filly back out with Declan Bates aboard, a rider with a 40% place rate from five rides at this course, right on the threshold where that number starts to mean something. That’s about as clean a case for early maiden improvement as this field offers. Desert Oak arrives with two runs for no placings this campaign and an average finish outside fourth, softer claims than they first appear. Count Chevalier carries the Hayes colours, and while its own form is thin (one run in the past three months, finishing eighth), the stable itself sits on a near-60% place rate from 22 runners at Swan Hill, and Hayes fields three runners in this race alone. First starters make up nearly half the field, which adds real uncertainty to the read. Silent Devotion to win, with Count Chevalier the roughie watch given the stable’s depth.
Race 3: Ultima Hotel Mdn Plate — 2:30pm, 1312m
Nineteen runners and barely a proven stayer among them: this is a race about which horse handles the pressure of a genuine field rather than which one has the best figures on paper. Platinum Rush has hit the money in three of its last four runs without saluting, for an average finish of 3.75, and Sarah Field climbs back on after 17 rides at this track without a win but with a place rate above 23%, a rider who keeps horses competitive even when the results column doesn’t show it. So Star’s own recent form is hard to read, with no runs inside the past three months, but Patrick Payne’s stable places roughly three runners in ten at Swan Hill from a healthy 19-runner sample, useful context when the individual line is this thin, and Payne also saddles Princess Geisha in the same race. Fully Funded’s only run in the past three months brought a third, enough to keep it in the each-way conversation without building as strong a case as the top pick. Nathan Hobson runs three in this race too (Invisible Caravan, Ted Percy and Donvilla d’Or), spreading the market rather than dominating it, and Donvilla d’Or’s flat record at this specific track (no placings from three runs) argues against getting carried away by the stable’s volume alone. In a field this size, the horse that’s already shown it can hit the frame repeatedly is the one to side with. Platinum Rush each-way, So Star for the forgiving exotics, and treat anything else as a watching brief.
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Race 4: Footts Swan Hill Demolition Group (Bm62) — 3:00pm, 1066m
Monix has been to Swan Hill three times and won every one of them. That alone would be worth a mention. What makes it more than a track quirk is the horse’s broader recent record: two wins and three places from four runs in the past three months, for an average finishing position of two, and the fact that Chelsea Taylor and Nathan Hobson have combined for two wins and two places from seven rides together at this exact circuit, a 28.6% strike rate from a sample big enough to trust. That’s a horse in career-best form, at its best track, with a rider-trainer partnership that already works here. The obvious complication is class: Bm62 is a step up from whatever Monix has been winning, and this is where the danger comes in. Reward The Sheriff has a win and two places from three runs at Swan Hill for an average finish of third, which reads as solid course form on its own, but the most recent run, the only one inside the assessment window, was a well-beaten 14th, and that contradiction is hard to ignore. If Reward The Sheriff has simply had an off day, it’s the horse best placed to run Monix down; if not, the market gap between them should hold. Sakasu, also from this yard, has a win and a place from three course runs but an average finish of eighth, too inconsistent to trust as more than a roughie. Monix to win, backed with genuine confidence. This is the best bet on the card, and Reward The Sheriff is the each-way saver if you want to hedge the class query.
Race 5: Busbiz.Net.Au Mdn Plate — 3:30pm, 1066m
Hard to have a confident view of this one. Full Of Knowledge showed early promise across its runs but hasn’t started in the past three months, which makes today’s fitness the real unknown. Explosive Magic placed at its only run at this track and looks the type capable of building on that if the step up in distance suits, but it’s a single data point and no more. Just Dusty, Mcphillips and Reve de Paris are all having their first starts, adding to the guesswork. If forced, Explosive Magic on the strength of that solitary course placing, but this is a watch race rather than one to back with conviction: small stakes or none at all.
Race 6: Pooles Accountants & Tax Specialists (Bm62) — 4:00pm, 2625m
Two horses arrive off recent wins, and the tempo over 2625m will decide which one matters more. Intuitu has a win from five runs in the past three months, but the average finish across that run of starts sits back around seventh, a horse capable of switching on but just as likely to leave its true form at home. Highland Glory’s recent figures read tighter: a win and a place from three runs, for an average finish around fourth, and Dan O’Sullivan’s only previous runner at Swan Hill also placed. That’s not enough history to call an angle, but it’s a promising first impression for a stable that doesn’t send many this way. Verifier has placed in two of its last four runs without winning and adds a touch more depth to the each-way market. Over a genuine two-lap staying trip, the horse that settles rather than fights for position usually has the edge in the straight. Highland Glory to win, with Intuitu the each-way cover if the speed collapses in front of it.
Where the money goes
If there’s one line to take from these Swan Hill racing tips, it’s this: Monix in Race 4, unbeaten at this track and now carrying career-best recent form into a rider-trainer partnership that already has a proven record here. That’s the one to build the day around.
For value, look past the maiden favourites to Platinum Rush in the 19-runner Race 3, a horse that keeps finding the frame in a field big enough to blow the price out. For the safest single leg of a multi, Silent Devotion in Race 2 has the cleanest recent figures in an ordinary field. Fully Funded gets the each-way vote on place credentials, having hit the money at its only recent look-in. And the course angle worth following past today: Nathan Hobson runs six horses across this card and 31 at the track lifetime, more volume than any other trainer in the book, and his colours are worth tracking all afternoon, not just when Monix is in the field.
If Hobson keeps sending them here at this rate, and Monix keeps winning when he does, Swan Hill starts to look like a stable’s second home rather than just another Saturday circuit.
Best Bookmakers for Today’s Racing
Compare live markets before placing anything. Prices move fastest in the hour before the first jump, and the gap between the best and worst quote on a horse like Monix or Silent Devotion can be the difference between a value bet and a short one.
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FAQ
What time does racing start at Swan Hill today?
The first race, the Bet365 Same Race Multi Mdn Plate, jumps at 1:30pm. There are six races on the card, finishing with the Pooles Accountants & Tax Specialists Bm62 over 2625m at 4:00pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Swan Hill today?
Nathan Hobson brings the most runners to today’s card (six), and has the deepest career record at the track with 31 runners for five wins and 12 places. Among the jockeys riding today, D Yendall leads the place-rate numbers, hitting the frame in almost two-thirds of his 19 rides at Swan Hill.
What are the best bets at Swan Hill today?
Monix in Race 4 is the standout, with three wins from three starts at this track, plus two wins and three places from its last four runs anywhere. Platinum Rush in Race 3 and Silent Devotion in Race 2 round out the strongest cases on the card.
Where can I find the best odds for Swan Hill races?
Odds move as raceday approaches, and firm prices for this meeting weren’t locked in at the time of writing. Compare live markets through the bookmakers listed above closer to the first jump to make sure you’re getting the best number on your selection.
