Overview
Sorry Sunshine has won her last two starts, and on Saturday she lines up in the Wagga stayers’ heat over 2000m chasing a third straight, for a stable that wins with one in every five runners it sends to this track. That is the bet I keep coming back to, and it anchors these Wagga racing tips.
The rest of the card has its own puzzles. Ditterich has run five times at Wagga and placed in every one of them without winning. Bifurcation has finished in the first three at three of his four runs since mid July, winning one, and still sits at $9.50 in the opener. And Folsomprisonhooves arrives in the maiden after three straight seconds, which is either a horse about to break through or one that has found its level.
The essentials: seven races on a Good turf track, the first at 1:29PM and the last at 5:05PM, with a C2 sprint, three benchmark handicaps, a Bm66 stayers’ heat and two maidens. Only the first race had a live market at the time of writing, so most of the prices you see below will need checking closer to the jump.
Wagga racing tips: reading Saturday’s card
There is real course experience in these fields, which is rare for a country Saturday. Nineteen of today’s runners have had three or more starts here, and two stand out. Belnera has finished in the first three at four of six Wagga starts, winning two. Ditterich is the strange one: five starts, five placings, no wins.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ditterich | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Kenny’s Swans | 3 | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 100.0 |
| Tassy Fox | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Divine Spark | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 75.0 |
| Belnera | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33.3 | 66.7 |
| Drama Dodger | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33.3 | 66.7 |
| Theo’s Choice | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 60.0 |
| Sorry Sunshine | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16.7 | 50.0 |
| Sundrop | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 40.0 |
The jockey list is a small, local colony, and every one of them has the volume to judge. Brodie Loy hits the frame in more than half his Wagga rides, the best rate on the card. Pierre Boudvillain has the most winners at twelve, while Carly Frater wins nearly one ride in five.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Loy | 26 | 4 | 14 | 15.4 | 53.8 |
| Dale Cole | 27 | 2 | 12 | 7.4 | 44.4 |
| Claire Ramsbotham | 16 | 3 | 7 | 18.8 | 43.8 |
| B McDougall | 69 | 4 | 29 | 5.8 | 42.0 |
| Pierre Boudvillain | 81 | 12 | 34 | 14.8 | 42.0 |
| Carly Frater | 36 | 7 | 14 | 19.4 | 38.9 |
| S Guymer | 71 | 5 | 23 | 7.0 | 32.4 |
| Nick Heywood | 36 | 5 | 11 | 13.9 | 30.6 |
Among the trainers, Doug Gorrel has the most winners here with eleven from 55, and Danielle Seib has the best strike of the high volume yards at eight from 30. A D Bourke is the quirk again: eight placings from eleven runners and not a single win, which happens to be the same pattern as the stable’s sprinter Ditterich.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A D Bourke | 11 | 0 | 8 | 0.0 | 72.7 |
| Danielle Seib | 30 | 8 | 16 | 26.7 | 53.3 |
| P J Morgan | 10 | 3 | 5 | 30.0 | 50.0 |
| Luke Pepper | 28 | 5 | 13 | 17.9 | 46.4 |
| MS D Scott | 46 | 4 | 21 | 8.7 | 45.7 |
| T P Donnelly | 31 | 5 | 12 | 16.1 | 38.7 |
| Doug Gorrel | 55 | 11 | 19 | 20.0 | 34.5 |
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Race by race: Wagga predictions
Race 1: Aitken Rowe Testing Laboratories Country Boosted Hcp (C2), 1:29PM, 1200m
Kenny’s Swans has been to Wagga three times and placed every time, winning once. Three runs is not enough to call him a course horse, but it is a pattern, and his two runs since July produced a second and a third. Brodie Loy rides, and nobody on the card finds the placings here more often. The query is barrier 12 with 59kg, so Loy will need to either push forward or accept a trailing run and hope the speed holds up in front.
Unibet has him at $3.80, almost level with Choc Chip at $3.70. Choc Chip won his only Wagga start and won his only run in the last three months, so he is the clear danger, carrying 55.5kg from gate 7 with Boudvillain aboard. He is one of three runners for Darrell Burnet in this race, with Oubaitori and Racy Thoughts the others.
The price I like most belongs to Bifurcation at $9.50. Four runs since July have brought a win and two other placings, and the K A Davison stable places with half its Wagga runners. Barrier 13 is ugly, but that form line is better than the odds suggest. Jenni Divine, Lost Ya Sock and Theo’s Choice are listed as non runners here.
Win bet on Kenny’s Swans, with a small each-way saver on Bifurcation at the bigger price.
Race 2: Pearl Home Care Murrumbidgee (Bm74), 2:03PM, 1300m
Who carries the most momentum into the strongest handicap on the card? I think it is Party Boss. He won his only run in the last three months, his form finishes 4, 3, 1, and he gets in with 56.5kg, a long way under topweight Canny Hell at 64.5kg. His Wagga record is two placings from four starts, so he knows the track without owning it. B McDougall rides for G J Colvin from barrier 7, a gate that lets him take a sit rather than be forced to work.
Atmospheric Rock is the danger. He won his only start here and has placed three times from four runs since July, one of them a win, though the latest of those runs was unplaced. Stablemate Pride Of Jezza also won on his only Wagga visit but comes in fresh without a run in the last 90 days. No live market was available for this race when I wrote this.
Win bet on Party Boss.
Race 3: Bendigo Bank Tumbarumba (Bm58), 2:38PM, 1600m
Avalon Lady is the most consistent horse in this field by a distance. Five runs since mid July have produced four placings, which in a Bm58 is about as reliable as these get. She comes in at 55kg from barrier 9 with Q Krogh, light enough to be handy without having to do too much work early.
The course horse is Belnera. Four top three finishes from six Wagga starts, two of them wins, is genuine track form, and the P J Morgan stable has won with three of its ten runners here. The catch is her current form. Two runs since July, neither placed, and finishes of 4, 8, 4 leave her needing a big lift. Sundrop has five placings from seven recent runs and is the each-way option at what should be a better price, while Doc March has placed at both course starts.
Avalon Lady to win, and she goes in the multis. No market was up at the time of writing.
Race 4: Win TV – Heat Of Wagga Stayers Series (Bm66), 3:13PM, 2000m
Sorry Sunshine and Hussy la Vista arrive with different profiles, and both are live. Sorry Sunshine is the in form local: finishes of 6, 7, 2, 1, 1 tell you a seven year old who has found something this campaign, and those five recent runs produced two wins and a second. Hussy la Vista is the lightly raced four year old with a higher ceiling, four top three finishes from six runs since July, two of them wins, and more than $48,000 in prize money over that stretch, the most of anyone on the card.
I side with Sorry Sunshine because everything around her points the same way. She has placed in half of her six Wagga starts, so the track holds no fears. Doug Gorrel has trained more winners here than anyone else with a runner today, and Josh Richards has won four of fifteen rides for the stable, the most recent of those on 3 October. The pair have teamed up four times at Wagga for one win. She carries 58kg from barrier 9, which is fine over 2000m where the gate matters less than how the race unfolds.
The two have never met, so there is no direct line to settle it. What tips me is weight against progression. Hussy la Vista gets 2kg less, at 56kg from gate 3, and she will likely get the softer run. If the tempo is honest, Sorry Sunshine‘s current form should tell late. If they crawl, the lighter weight and the better gate become the stronger hand.
Marsabit is the each-way type. Four placings from eight recent runs without a win tells you he keeps turning up and keeps getting beaten. Midnight Affair, who has won at Wagga, is a non runner.
Win bet on Sorry Sunshine, the strongest play on the card, with a saver exacta reversing her and Hussy la Vista.
Race 5: Wagga Fire & Security (Bm66), 3:50PM, 1000m
Ditterich is the most reliable placegetter at this track and also, frustratingly, a horse who has never won here. Five Wagga starts, five placings. His only run in the last three months was a second, and his last six finishes are 4, 2, 3, 2, 6, 2. The A D Bourke stable has the identical problem here, placing with nearly three quarters of its runners without a win. That is not a knock on the each-way case. It is the each-way case.
The winner might come from the inside. Pietro Road won his only Wagga start, won last time out, and jumps from barrier 1 with Carly Frater, who has seven winners from 36 rides here. In a 1000m dash, that gate is gold. Star Of Lily is the other last start winner, a three year old with the lightest weight at 55kg for N J Olive, and Drama Dodger has won one of his three Wagga starts.
Each-way Ditterich, with Pietro Road the one I fear most. No market was available for this race.
Race 6: The Daily Advertiser Mdn Hcp, 4:25PM, 1600m
Three seconds in a row from Folsomprisonhooves. The optimist sees a three year old knocking on the door. The cynic sees a horse that keeps finding one better. I lean optimist, because his four runs have produced three placings, he is still on the way up, and this is a weak maiden handicap where 57kg from barrier 8 is a fair deal. Carly Frater rides for T J Wilson.
The danger is Hold This, with the same pattern and more weight. The MS D Scott stable places with close to half its Wagga runners, and Hold This has placed in three of four runs since July and in two of four course starts, carrying 60kg from barrier 13. That wide draw over a mile is a real problem. Tassy Fox has placed in all three Wagga starts but none of his last two runs anywhere.
Win bet on Folsomprisonhooves, small stakes, because maiden form this exposed can disappoint.
Race 7: Triple M Riverina Country Boosted Mdn Plate, 5:05PM, 1300m
Hard to be confident in a maiden with three unraced or barely raced three year olds, but Gold Decree has the most solid profile. Both his Wagga starts produced placings, his last two runs were seconds, and Brodie Loy rides from barrier 3 with 59kg.
Eyes Right is the improver. Finishes of 7, 4, 3, 2 are heading the right way, he placed once from two course starts, and he gets the bottom weight of 53.5kg from barrier 1 for T P Donnelly. If he takes another step, the weight difference could be decisive. Divine Spark has placed at three of four Wagga starts but comes in fresh, and Lull Us Away has placed in four of six recent runs without winning one.
Small win bet on Gold Decree. This is a watch race for anyone already ahead.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Sorry Sunshine (Race 4, 3:13PM). Two straight wins, placed in half her Wagga starts, and trained by the stable with the most winners at the track. She has every box ticked except a light weight.
Value: Bifurcation (Race 1, 1:29PM). A win and two more placings from four runs since July, and still $9.50 with Unibet. The wide gate explains some of that price, but not all of it.
Banker: Avalon Lady (Race 3, 2:38PM). Four placings from five recent runs in a Bm58. She might not win, but she rarely misses the frame, which is what a multi leg needs.
Each-way: Ditterich (Race 5, 3:50PM). Five Wagga starts, five placings. The win has eluded him every time, so take the place insurance and let the record do the work.
Course angle: Brodie Loy rides Kenny’s Swans and Gold Decree today, and his place rate here is the best of the local jockeys. On a card full of placegetters, his mounts are worth including in every exotic.
If Sorry Sunshine completes the hat-trick, she becomes the horse to beat in this stayers’ series, and the Gorrel stable will have another reason to keep aiming its team at Wagga.
FAQ
What time does the first race start at Wagga on Saturday?
Race 1, the Aitken Rowe Testing Laboratories Country Boosted Hcp (C2) over 1200m, jumps at 1:29PM. The last, the Triple M Riverina Country Boosted Mdn Plate over 1300m, goes at 5:05PM, with seven races on a Good track.
Who are the leading trainers and jockeys at Wagga?
Doug Gorrel has the most winners among today’s trainers with eleven from 55 starters, and the Danielle Seib stable wins with more than a quarter of its runners. Pierre Boudvillain leads the jockeys with twelve wins from 81 rides, while Brodie Loy places in more than half of his rides here.
What are the best bets at Wagga today?
Sorry Sunshine in Race 4 is the top pick after two consecutive wins. Avalon Lady in Race 3 is the most reliable multi leg with four placings from five recent runs, and Ditterich in Race 5 is the each-way play after placing at all five Wagga starts.
Where can I find the best Wagga odds?
Only Race 1 had a live market at the time of writing, with Choc Chip at $3.70 and Kenny’s Swans at $3.80 with Unibet. Compare the bookmakers listed above once the later races open, and look closely at each-way terms for Race 5.