Newcastle Racing Tips: Four Straight for Exorbitant Miss?
Wagga Racing Tips Sep 19 — Who Stops Winter Hail?
Overview
Kokonda has won both starts since resuming, and comfortably. The sectional gaps in both wins are the kind that make a stable happy and a market nervous, and it’s the clearest thread running through today’s Wagga racing tips. It’s not the only one, though. Winter Hail has finished no worse than second in three runs this campaign, and the rider on board has spent more time in the Wagga winner’s circle this year than anyone else in today’s jockeys’ room. Seven races go around on the turf, spanning a tight 1094m dash through to a genuine 2187m staying test, and the card has more depth than the maiden races at the top of the program suggest. Below is the full read: what the course numbers back up, where the danger sits race by race, and where we’d actually put money down.
What the Wagga track gives up today
Course form isn’t a mirage here. Nine of today’s runners arrive with three or more starts at Wagga, enough to work with real numbers instead of guesswork. Elastane Miss hasn’t broken through for a win at the track but has never missed a place either: four runs, four minor placings. Belnera is the strongest all-round package, with two wins and two further places from five runs. That’s a genuine course record, not a lucky afternoon, though her form away from Wagga has cooled off lately. Certain Eclipse and Dreamstone both sit on one win and one placing from three starts, an emerging pattern rather than a proven one, but worth knowing before the market moves.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elastane Miss | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Belnera | 5 | 2 | 4 | 40.0 | 80.0 |
| Iconic Rose | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25.0 | 50.0 |
| Sorry Sunshine | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 40.0 |
| Certain Eclipse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Dreamstone | 3 | 1 | 1 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Fair Master | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 33.3 |
| Iroquai | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 25.0 |
In the saddle, the numbers separate quickly once you get past the ride counts. Dale Cole has the best conversion rate of anyone with a genuine sample, placing nine of his 20 Wagga rides. Pierre Boudvillain has by far the deepest book, 71 rides for 10 wins and 29 places, which makes him the rider to watch regardless of which horse he’s on. He partners our best bet later today. Carly Frater isn’t far behind him on raw numbers either.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dale Cole | 20 | 1 | 9 | 5.0 | 45.0 |
| B McDougall | 59 | 3 | 25 | 5.1 | 42.4 |
| Pierre Boudvillain | 71 | 10 | 29 | 14.1 | 40.9 |
| Carly Frater | 32 | 6 | 13 | 18.8 | 40.6 |
| Glenn Cahill | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 37.5 |
| S Guymer | 63 | 5 | 21 | 7.9 | 33.3 |
| Brittany Button | 24 | 1 | 8 | 4.2 | 33.3 |
| Q Krogh | 26 | 2 | 8 | 7.7 | 30.8 |
On the training side, P J Morgan and K A Davison both place five of every eight runners they bring to Wagga, the best return of anyone with a workable sample, though neither has a runner on today’s card. Andrew Dale and G G Kirkup are the pick of today’s raiders, each hitting a 50% place rate from a dozen runners, and Andrew Dale’s runner gets a full mention below. G J Colvin and Anthony Warren don’t have the strike rate to match, but they’ve both sent big teams today, seven runners for Colvin and five for Warren, which is its own kind of signal about which stables are firing.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P J Morgan | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37.5 | 62.5 |
| K A Davison | 8 | 1 | 5 | 12.5 | 62.5 |
| Andrew Dale | 12 | 2 | 6 | 16.7 | 50.0 |
| G G Kirkup | 12 | 2 | 6 | 16.7 | 50.0 |
| Luke Pepper | 26 | 5 | 12 | 19.2 | 46.2 |
| D J Mccarthy | 9 | 1 | 4 | 11.1 | 44.4 |
| W G Carroll | 25 | 0 | 11 | 0.0 | 44.0 |
| Pat Murphy | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 42.9 |
Live bookmaker odds weren’t populated at the time of writing, so treat any prices below as TBC and check current markets before betting. For a side-by-side look at today’s best bookmaker offers, see the list below.
Ladbrokes Review [Updated March 2026] | Ladbrokes.com.au Pros & Cons
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Race by race
Race 1: Inland Geo Mdn Hcp — 1:11pm, 1312m
Eight maidens with almost nothing to go on. Half the field is yet to finish in the placings, and none of them has won before. It’s genuinely hard to have a strong view here. Ultrasonic gets the nod as the most progressive runner in the field, third-up, placed at her second start, and dropping to a lighter impost than most around her. Not Guilty is the obvious danger, also fresh off a placing and carrying more experience, while Fighting Fox has one placing from a Wagga start to fall back on if the market drifts him wide. Small stakes only, or watch it go around.
Race 2: Huon Contractors Mdn Plate — 1:46pm, 1531m
El Cool Gee is building into this: three placings from his last four runs, most recently second, and he does it carrying light weight for a three-year-old still finding his final gear. That kind of steady progression through a maiden grade generally ends in a win before long. Icon Dream is the danger, also second at her latest outing, with more affinity for this distance based on how her form reads. If the pace collapses late, she’s the type to run over the top of him. El Cool Gee to win, with Icon Dream the each-way cover if you want to hedge the maiden lottery.
Race 3: Black Swan Hotel (Bm58) — 2:21pm, 2187m
The market will likely crowd around whoever won last start in this staying test, but King Incanto’s underlying profile says more than his last finishing position. He’s placed in four of his past six runs without quite going one better, and Andrew Dale, the pick of today’s raiding trainers on a 50% place rate, knows how to get a horse into position over ground like this. That kind of consistency is easy to undervalue if punters are simply chasing the horse that just won. Mayfair Hotel is the one that just did: a win and two placings from his last four, and a type who could easily lead throughout over 2187m if the tempo suits. King Incanto each-way, with Mayfair Hotel the swing factor if he gets across soft enough early.
Race 4: Honouring Peter Worsley Hcp (C3) — 2:56pm, 1531m
Kokonda has won both runs since return, and not narrowly. That’s a horse improving faster than the ratings have caught up with, and Craig Weeding doesn’t often get a two-from-two galloper this clean-cut. There’s no obvious reason the sequence stops here against a field with more question marks than certainties. Bifurcation is the danger, placed in two of her last three and a winner at her latest start too, which sets up a genuine ding-dong between the two in-form runners in the race. Back Kokonda to win; Bifurcation is the one worth taking on in exotics if you’re not fully sold.
Race 5: Riverina Wool Testers (Bm58) — 3:31pm, 1750m
Two horses, two very different stories. Ikon Park has placed in all three runs of a short career, including a win, and looks like a horse still working out how good he is. Showmara also won last start, but the rest of his recent form is patchier: a single placing from three runs is a different profile to Ikon Park’s consistency, even with the latest piece of form looking similar on paper. Ikon Park is also part of G J Colvin’s seven-strong team today, and a stable sending that many out is clearly training on all cylinders. Ikon Park to win, with Showmara needing the promising type to blink first.
Race 6: Riverina Co-Op (Bm58) — 4:10pm, 1312m
Which recent winner do you actually trust? This is the deepest field on the card, fourteen runners, and at least four of them arrive off a win last time out: Vinari, Time For Snow, Kenny’s Swans and Certain Eclipse have all crossed the line first in their latest outing. That’s an unusual amount of recent-winner traffic converging on one race, and it’s exactly the kind of contest where the loudest recent form isn’t automatically the best form. Vinari gets the vote. His last two runs have both ended in the winner’s stall, a genuine pattern rather than a one-off, and Q Krogh has ridden him through the sequence. Time For Snow is the closest thing to a rival on merit: five straight placings before a breakthrough win last start, a horse that plainly knows how to get into a race and has now worked out how to finish it off. Kenny’s Swans and Certain Eclipse both have Wagga runs to fall back on too, which only deepens the danger list. In a field this genuine, back Vinari for the win and take Time For Snow in an exacta or as the each-way second string. This is the race worth structuring a multi around rather than banking on a single result.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Race 7: Conqueror Milling Company Hcp (C1) — 4:46pm, 1094m
Anthony Warren has sent out five runners across today’s card, and Flying Corsair, a winner at only his second run, carries the most upside from that team. But this is Winter Hail’s race to lose. Three runs back from a break have produced a win and two seconds, the best sustained form of his campaign, and Pierre Boudvillain takes the ride, the rider with more Wagga winners and placings than anyone else working today. That combination of career-best form and the track’s most productive jockey is hard to bet against in a sprint like this. Elastane Miss, still without a win at Wagga but placed in all four runs at the track, rounds out the each-way calculations if you want to spread the risk. Winter Hail to win, and it’s a strong enough case to carry into a multi.
The plays
Winter Hail is the best bet of the day. He’s a horse building through a campaign, win, second, second, with the rider who simply gets more of the track’s business than anyone else in the room. If the price holds up anywhere near what that form deserves, it’s the one to build the day around.
King Incanto is the value angle. He keeps finishing in the placings without the market rewarding him for it, and a trainer placing half his Wagga runners doesn’t often go through a card without a result to show for it.
Kokonda is the banker for multis: two runs back, two wins, both untroubled. It’s about as safe as a form line gets without an actual course record to point to.
Vinari is the each-way play in the day’s toughest race. Two straight wins is a real sequence, not a fluke, even against the deepest field on the card.
The repeatable course angle for punters following Wagga racing tips through the rest of the season is Pierre Boudvillain’s ride book. It’s the deepest of any jockey on the circuit, and any time he’s aboard a runner with a genuine chance, that volume is working in the punter’s favour, not just his own.
If Boudvillain keeps riding Wagga like this, he’ll be worth following into meetings well beyond today’s card.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Wagga today?
The first race, the Inland Geo Mdn Hcp, jumps at 1:11pm. Seven races follow through the afternoon, with the last, the Conqueror Milling Company Hcp, set down for 4:46pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Wagga today?
Pierre Boudvillain has the deepest book of any jockey riding today, 71 Wagga rides for 10 wins and 29 places, and he partners our best bet, Winter Hail, in race seven. Andrew Dale is the pick of today’s raiding trainers on the numbers, placing half of his 12 runners at the track, while G J Colvin and Anthony Warren have sent the biggest teams, with seven and five runners respectively.
What are the best bets at Wagga today?
Winter Hail is the standout: three runs back for a win and two seconds with Pierre Boudvillain aboard. Kokonda, unbeaten in two runs since resuming, and King Incanto, placed in four of his last six, round out the strongest cases on the card.
Where can I find the best odds for Wagga races today?
Bookmaker odds weren’t live in the feed at the time of writing, so treat any prices mentioned above as indicative only and check current markets before betting. The bookmaker comparison list further up this page is the quickest way to shop the field once prices are up.
18+ only. Odds and offers are correct at time of writing and subject to change.
