Balaklava Tips Sept 30: Can the Lewis Stable Strike Again?
Warrnambool Racing Tips Oct 1: Can Reddivo Stay Unbeaten?
Overview
Reddivo has won both his starts at Warrnambool, and he steps back out over an unusual 3390m journey in race two — a horse-for-course type doing what he does best on his home patch. That’s the standout angle across an eight-race card that runs from a wide-open maiden heat through to established types finding their level in Saturday-grade handicaps. These Warrnambool racing tips work through all eight races using course-specific form, recent results, and jockey and trainer combinations rather than gut feel, to land on where the card is generous and where it isn’t. Tom Dabernig sends runners into four separate races, MS L J Meech and his stable have combined for a near-80% placing rate at this track, and there’s a genuine each-way thread running through the whole program if you know where to look. Racing kicks off at 1:30pm and runs through to 5pm — read on for how each race plays out.
The Bool today — what the numbers say
Forty-five of today’s runners already carry a course record at Warrnambool, which means there’s real signal to work with rather than guesswork. A handful of horses stand out on raw course figures — Hill Cry, Moonraker, Imminent Storm and Smokin’ Rohie have all managed to place in two of every three runs they’ve had here, while Spanish Snitzel and Becauseyou’re Mine have struggled to find the same purple patch despite plenty of course miles between them. On the jockey side, S Pateman’s numbers jump out — three wins and fifteen placings from twenty rides at Warrnambool, a 75% place strike rate that’s the best of anyone riding today, with MS L J Meech and B Rawiller both sitting above the 55% mark from much bigger books of rides. Among trainers, Patrick Payne’s runners have placed more than half the time from nine Warrnambool starters, and Tom Dabernig carries the largest body of course form of anyone racing today, sending runners into four races on this card.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill Cry | 3 | 2 | 2 | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Moonraker | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Imminent Storm | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Smokin’ Rohie | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Both Sides Now | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Becauseyou’re Mine | 3 | 1 | 1 | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Pateman | 20 | 3 | 15 | 15.0% | 75.0% |
| MS L J Meech | 53 | 9 | 30 | 17.0% | 56.6% |
| B Rawiller | 16 | 3 | 9 | 18.8% | 56.3% |
| T Ryan | 19 | 3 | 9 | 15.8% | 47.4% |
| D M Parker | 18 | 4 | 8 | 22.2% | 44.4% |
| W Gordon | 49 | 9 | 20 | 18.4% | 40.8% |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Payne | 9 | 1 | 5 | 11.1% | 55.6% |
| C Maher | 40 | 9 | 20 | 22.5% | 50.0% |
| Henry Dwyer | 14 | 3 | 7 | 21.4% | 50.0% |
| Nell Carter | 8 | 2 | 4 | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Tom Dabernig | 61 | 11 | 30 | 18.0% | 49.2% |
| M J Williams | 31 | 3 | 12 | 9.7% | 38.7% |
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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How the Warrnambool card plays out
Race 1: Tab Mdn Hwt Plate — 1:30pm, 1859m
Twelve maidens go around over 1859m and not one of them arrives with a formline that demands respect, so the question is which one is closest to putting it together. Lady Colonist gets the nod. She has managed only one placing from four runs this campaign, but that placing came with A Lynch in the saddle, and Lynch has steered a runner into the frame in half of his ten Warrnambool rides. Pitman looms as the obvious danger under top weight of 153.2kg — his last three runs read 4th, 3rd and 8th, the sort of card that keeps finding minor money without ever breaking through. Small stakes only; this is a watch race dressed up as a betting race.
Race 2: Graham’s Cleaning Supplies Hwt (Bm70) — 2:00pm, 3390m
Reddivo has never lost at Warrnambool. Two starts, two wins, and the Jamie Edwards-trained stayer steps out fresh in a marathon 3390m contest that suits anything with genuine bottom. W Gordon takes the ride, and nobody knows this track better — 49 rides here have produced 9 winners and 20 placings, the busiest book of any jockey in the field. Across his past four runs everywhere, Reddivo has won twice and placed in three, backing up what the course figures already say about him.
The obvious question is whether two-and-a-bit miles asks something new of him, and in a staying handicap this long, traffic or a genuine speed collapse can undo the best form horse in the race. Matthew Mark offers some insurance against that: only two runs at Warrnambool, but he has won one and placed in the other, for an average finish of 1.5 — the kind of small sample that still tells you something. Keep an eye, too, on the Nell Carter pair of Thoughtful and Smokin’ Rohie; Carter has placed half her runners across eight starts at this track.
Reddivo is the bet. Win only, with Matthew Mark the each-way alternative if the market lets him drift.
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Race 3: BH Electrical Mdn Plate — 2:30pm, 1312m
C Maher doesn’t miss much when he sends a first starter south, and the jockey to note here is John Allen — the pair have combined for two wins and three placings from just seven rides together at Warrnambool, a strong return for any stable-jockey combination. Vulcana carries that partnership into her debut, and first starters from this stable have a habit of knowing plenty. Lomu is the each-way alternative with actual runs on the board — two placings from two starts this campaign, without disgracing himself against similar company — while Tuscan Rose was competitive enough to place on her only run at this track. A field of raw three-year-olds makes this one for smaller stakes: Vulcana to win, Lomu the save.
Race 4: Matthew Williams Racing Mdn Plate — 3:00pm, 1312m
Punters will gravitate toward the powerhouse pairing of Tom Dabernig and B Rawiller on Prince Iadora, and with good reason — Dabernig has strung together an enormous body of course form here, placing in close to half his Warrnambool runners across 61 starts. But look past the name and the profile is untested: Prince Iadora’s only run at this track produced an unplaced finish, and this looks a stronger field than his formline suggests. Cool Aza Breeze is the one doing the quiet work — three placings from four runs this campaign, for an average finishing position of 3.75, and C Maher’s stable rarely sends one out short of fit. Iron Stupa, racing again for P Kearney, rounds out the each-way calculations after a string of minor placings without ever breaking through. Cool Aza Breeze to win, with Prince Iadora the each-way cover if the market backs the stable’s reputation over the formline.
Race 5: Mona’s Concrete Pumping (Bm62) — 3:30pm, 1312m
Fourteen runners go around in this Bm62 and the shape looks workable for whoever can sit and pounce — modest speed on paper, no standout leader. Singles Moment fits either way: he won on his only start at this track, and this campaign he has added a further win and two placings from four runs for the Dabernig stable. Tom Madden has managed only a moderate strike rate from a big book of Warrnambool rides, but the horse looks better than what he’s had to beat previously. Artistic Genius is the each-way alternative — a win in his only run at this track, and three starts this campaign have produced a win and a placing, for a P Koumis stable that has managed a top-three finish in all four of its Warrnambool runners. Singles Moment gets the vote as the most credentialed runner in the race; each-way, with Artistic Genius the roughie if the tempo suits him.
Race 6: Fabriweld Constructions (Bm62) — 4:00pm, 1094m
Same stable, different stories. Tom Dabernig sends out two runners for this 1094m dash — Du Clisson and Romantic Miss — and while they carry identical colours, the recent formlines tell different tales. Du Clisson has produced a win and two placings from his last five runs everywhere, backed up by a win and a placing from his two runs at this track. Romantic Miss also owns a Warrnambool win, but her broader record this campaign is more modest. The rest of the field offers depth without an obvious standout, though Succaforyou and Money Honey both hold each-way claims on ability alone. Du Clisson to win, with Romantic Miss the each-way saver given she carries the same stable’s polish.
Race 7: Sungold Milk (Bm62) — 4:30pm, 1859m
Eighteen line up in the biggest field of the day, and the question is whether the standout combination can cut through the crowd. Just My Lot fits the bill: he has placed in both his Warrnambool starts, and with MS L J Meech in the saddle for the Dabernig stable, that partnership has produced five wins and eighteen placings from twenty-three rides at this track, a place rate north of 78%. He also arrives off a win at Hamilton last start. Hill Cry is the each-way danger — two wins and a further placing from his five runs this campaign, with two of those wins coming right here at Warrnambool. With eighteen runners, luck in running counts for as much as ability, so cover rather than commit. Just My Lot each-way, with Hill Cry the roughie if the speed collapses late.
Race 8: Matko Hire (Bm62) — 5:00pm, 1531m
Two horses give this a genuine each-way complexion, and they couldn’t be more different types. The Cable Guy has strung together two wins from his last three runs, with the other finish unplaced, for an average position of 2.0 across that trio — as hot a formline as anything on the card. The Quiet Immortal counters with the sort of relentless consistency that wins races on its own terms: a formline of 2-3-3-1-3-1 that shows he’s rarely far away regardless of the assignment. Mr Sioux adds another layer, having won on his only start at this track for the C Maher stable. W Gordon partners The Cable Guy, adding another string to a substantial book of Warrnambool rides. The Cable Guy for the win, The Quiet Immortal the each-way alternative, and a small saver on Mr Sioux to round out the card.
Where the money goes
NAP: Reddivo in race two. A horse with a perfect record at this circuit steps out in the one event tailor-made for a genuine stayer, ridden by the jockey who knows the track better than anyone in the field.
Value: Just My Lot in race seven. An 18-horse field will scare plenty of punters away from digging deeper, but few runners anywhere on the card carry a partnership as strong as his with MS L J Meech and the Dabernig stable at this track.
Banker: Du Clisson in race six. A win and two placings from his last five runs, backed by a genuine course record, make him about as safe a multi leg as the card offers.
Each-way: The Quiet Immortal in race eight. A formline that barely shows a bad run is exactly the profile each-way punters want.
Course angle: Tom Dabernig has runners in four races today, and his stable’s numbers at Warrnambool hold up across the volume rather than thinning out — worth following every time the yard sends a team to this track.
If Dabernig keeps splitting his team across Warrnambool cards at this rate, he’ll be the name written into the notes every meeting this spring.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What time does racing start at Warrnambool today?
The first race, the Tab Mdn Hwt Plate, jumps at 1:30pm, with racing running through to the last event at 5pm.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Warrnambool today?
S Pateman leads the jockey numbers on raw place rate — three wins and fifteen placings from twenty rides at this track, a 75% strike rate. Among trainers, Patrick Payne’s runners have placed in more than half of his nine Warrnambool starters, while Tom Dabernig carries the largest body of course form of anyone racing today, with 61 runs returning an 18% win rate.
What are the best bets at Warrnambool today?
Reddivo in race two is the pick of the card — unbeaten in two runs at this track and fresh off two wins from his last four runs everywhere. Just My Lot in race seven offers the value, with his partnership with MS L J Meech producing a place rate above 78% at Warrnambool.
Where can I find the best odds for Warrnambool races?
Compare bookmaker prices before betting — the offers and comparison tools on this page make it easy to see who’s paying the most for each Warrnambool runner.
Is there a standout trainer sending multiple runners to Warrnambool today?
Tom Dabernig has runners across four races on the card, from Prince Iadora in race four through to Just My Lot in race seven, and his stable’s course numbers hold up regardless of the volume.
