Overview
Cosmic Crusader has not finished outside the first three in five runs since mid-July. Over that stretch the horse has won three races, among them the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on 3 October, and banked close to a million dollars. On Saturday the Andrea Leek stayer carries that run of form into the Caulfield Cup, and the only real knock is barrier 17.
The Cup is the headline, but these Caulfield racing tips start well before 5:15PM. The Thousand Guineas at 3:45PM is a proper puzzle: Pretty Baby, Icelady and Over The Bridge all come in with a case. An hour before that, Cavalry Girl, my best bet of the day, goes around in the Henley Homes Sprint.
The essentials: ten races on a Good track, the first at 12:15PM and the last at 5:50PM, running from a 1000m sprint up to the 2400m of the Cup. Live prices were up for the first three races only when I wrote this, so you get odds where they exist and an honest blank where they don’t.
Caulfield racing tips: what the track tells us
Caulfield runs a lot of these horses. Plenty of today’s runners have three or more starts here, and two of the most consistent course horses are two of my strongest picks. Cosmic Crusader has placed every time in four visits. Cavalry Girl has won two of three.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cosmic Crusader | 4 | 2 | 4 | 50.0 | 100.0 |
| Cavalry Girl | 3 | 2 | 3 | 66.7 | 100.0 |
| I Am Aria | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 75.0 |
| Merrigold | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25.0 | 75.0 |
| Pallaton | 3 | 2 | 2 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Treasurethe Moment | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20.0 | 60.0 |
Craig Williams is the rider to follow here. He has had 107 rides at Caulfield and finished in the first three on 54 of them, and nobody else on the card comes close to that volume. Ethan Brown wins with one ride in five here, the best strike rate among the busy riders.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Williams | 107 | 17 | 54 | 15.9 | 50.5 |
| Ben Allen | 47 | 7 | 21 | 14.9 | 44.7 |
| H Coffey | 77 | 7 | 32 | 9.1 | 41.6 |
| Jabez Johnstone | 47 | 9 | 19 | 19.1 | 40.4 |
| D W Stackhouse | 60 | 9 | 24 | 15.0 | 40.0 |
| Ethan Brown | 60 | 12 | 20 | 20.0 | 33.3 |
C Maher has the numbers by sheer weight: 36 winners from 233 Caulfield runners and a big team spread across the card, including five in the Cup after three of his stable were scratched. A & S Freedman win with one runner in five here, and Tom Dabernig, who trains Cavalry Girl and Shadhavar, places with more than four in ten.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L Smith | 11 | 4 | 7 | 36.4 | 63.6 |
| Bjorn Baker | 5 | 3 | 3 | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| M M Laurie | 39 | 5 | 18 | 12.8 | 46.2 |
| Tom Dabernig | 39 | 7 | 17 | 17.9 | 43.6 |
| A & S Freedman | 73 | 15 | 30 | 20.5 | 41.1 |
| C Maher | 233 | 36 | 87 | 15.5 | 37.3 |
| Ben, Will & JD Hayes | 172 | 17 | 62 | 9.9 | 36.0 |
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Race by race: Caulfield predictions
Race 1: Sportsbet Classic, 12:15PM, 2000m
Cignetti is the one I want in the opener, and the price helps. Cignetti has run three times since July and placed every time: a Sale maiden win, a second at Sandown, then a third behind Miss Waititi in the Super Impose Stakes at Flemington. B Shinn and the Busuttin and Young stable have teamed up eleven times for three wins and nine placings, and barrier 1 means Shinn can save every inch over 2000m.
Vallice is the problem. At $3.40 with Unibet Vallice heads the market, and finished ahead of Cignetti when second in that Super Impose. Against that, Vallice has not won in four runs since mid-July and has missed the frame at both Caulfield starts. Russian Rock, $3.70 with Unibet, won one of two recent runs but finished fifth last time.
At $8.00 with Unibet, Cignetti is worth an each-way bet.
Race 2: Sharp Eit Solutions Ethereal Stakes, 12:50PM, 2000m
Does the market have this backwards? Fringilla is favourite at $2.70 with Unibet off a last-start win, and Ethan Brown’s strike rate here makes that respectable. Miss Waititi, though, won the Super Impose Stakes at Flemington on 3 October, beating Vallice and Cignetti, who meet again in the Classic, and has earned more than $108,000 from just two runs since July.
Williams rides from barrier 2 for the Price and Kent stable, a combination with seven wins from 25 rides together. With only two runs since July there should be more improvement to come. Your Colour, $10.00 with Unibet, has won once and placed twice from four recent starts but draws barrier 12.
Win bet on Miss Waititi at $3.00 with Bet Right.
Race 3: Manhari Alinghi Stakes, 1:25PM, 1100m
Geegees Mistruth is $2.00 with Bet Right, and I can’t get there. Top weight, no placing from two Caulfield starts, and fifth at both runs since July. That’s a lot of trust for an even-money price.
Eagle Express is the alternative. A win and a second from two runs since July, prize money of more than $111,000 in that time, and Damian Lane from barrier 3 for Waller. At $10.00 with Unibet that looks far too big beside the favourite. Photograph, $4.80 with Unibet, has placed in two of three Caulfield starts and gets the lightest weight, though Zahra and the Hayes stable have not won together in 22 attempts. Gentle Steel has won both starts here, but comes in without a run since mid-July.
Each-way on Eagle Express.
Race 4: Quayclean Gothic Stakes, 2:00PM, 1400m
The best form line in this race runs through the Thousand Guineas. I Am Aria ran second to Over The Bridge in the Scarborough Stakes here on 27 September, and that horse runs in the Guineas later in the day. I Am Aria has placed in three of four Caulfield starts, won a Bendigo maiden in August, and drops in with one of the lighter weights under M J Dee from barrier 5.
The worry is the win. I Am Aria has not won at this track, and the M W Walker stable has had 26 Caulfield runners without a winner. Aemond is the danger, with a win and a placing from two runs since July, the placing coming on the only visit here, with Zahra riding for a Freedman stable that wins one in five at Caulfield. Barrier 12 is the catch. Ektifire, another Freedman runner, won last start.
Markets were not up at the time of writing. Each-way on I Am Aria.
Race 5: Sportsbet Harry White Stakes, 2:35PM, 1400m
I don’t have a confident view on this one. If forced, I’d take Private Eye. The nine-year-old has placed in two of three runs since July, placed at the only Caulfield start, and has B Shinn from barrier 2. Hughes has the better course record, a win and two placings from three runs here, but has not raced since mid-July. Amenable placed at both recent runs and is the lightest weight in the race.
No prices were up. Watch race, or a small win bet on Private Eye.
Race 6: Henley Homes Sprint, 3:10PM, 1000m
Cavalry Girl is the best bet on the card. Four runs since mid-July have brought three wins and a second, and more than $400,000 in prize money. The Carlyon Stakes at Sandown in August was one of those wins, and the second came in the Moir Stakes there in September. The Caulfield record is two wins from three, placed every time.
Craig Williams and Tom Dabernig have combined eight times for three wins and six placings, two of those wins at this track. Barrier 5 in an eleven-horse sprint lets Williams find a spot just behind the speed without spending anything early.
I’m Foxing is the one to fear. Four straight wins, a win at the only Caulfield start, and one of the lighter weights. The doubt is that I’m Foxing has not raced since mid-July and drew barrier 11. Saluted, placed in all four runs since July, should be in the exotics.
No live price yet. Win bet on Cavalry Girl, who goes in every multi.
Race 7: Stow Storage Thousand Guineas, 3:45PM, 1600m
Pretty Baby and Icelady have both beaten Saintly Dancer, in different races. Pretty Baby beat that rival in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes at Sandown on 5 September, when Saintly Dancer ran sixth. Icelady did it in the Thousand Guineas Prelude here two weeks later.
I side with Pretty Baby: three wins and a second from four runs since July and not once out of the frame in that time. Damian Lane draws barrier 5, which should give him a sit just off the pace. The concern is experience at this track: G Richards and D Moyle have had only one Caulfield runner.
Icelady is the danger after winning the Prelude over 1400m on a first Caulfield start, and Ethan Brown and C Maher have won nine of their 33 Caulfield rides together. Barrier 10 is fair. Over The Bridge is unbeaten in two starts, including the Scarborough Stakes here with Mark Zahra, but draws barrier 13 in a thirteen-horse field. Saintly Dancer won last start and has earned the most since July, so can’t be ignored either.
No market yet. Win bet on Pretty Baby with a saver on Icelady.
Race 8: Catanach’s Jewellers Blue Sapphire Stakes, 4:30PM, 1200m
Threads has won the last two, including the Brian Kruger Handicap here on 27 September, the only Caulfield start so far. That gives him two wins and two more placings from five runs since July. B Shinn rides from barrier 6 for C Maher.
Over Excited is the threat. The Freedman runner has a win and two placings from three runs since July, gets the lightest weight and has Damian Lane. A seventh last time is the question. Organised Crime placed at the only Caulfield visit, and Barracks won the only run since July for Williams and Maher.
Prices weren’t up. Win bet on Threads.
Race 9: Sportsbet Caulfield Cup, 5:15PM, 2400m
Cosmic Crusader comes into the Cup with the strongest form of any stayer in the field. Since mid-July: a win in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes here, third in the Memsie Stakes, second in the Underwood Stakes, then the Turnbull Stakes win at Flemington on 3 October. That’s five runs, three wins, never out of the first three. W Pike and Andrea Leek have teamed up four times for two wins, and the horse has placed at all four Caulfield starts.
The case against is the gate and the weight. Barrier 17 in a field of 19 means Pike must either push forward early or drop back and come around them, and only Half Yours carries more weight. Over 2400m at this track that is a real cost. I still think the form is good enough to cover it.
Royal Supremacy is the main danger. Royal Supremacy won the JRA Cup here on 27 September and has won one of two Caulfield starts. Jamie Spencer takes over from Zahra, and barrier 8 is a much easier draw. Kingswood, the Heatherlie Stakes winner, finished behind Cosmic Crusader in the Underwood and has drawn barrier 20. The Euphrates has a win and two placings from three runs since July for Waterhouse and Bott with a light weight. Zahrann has placed in both Caulfield starts and draws barrier 4.
Juja Kibo, Point Of Law and Mr Monaco are scratched, which leaves Maher with five runners. No market was up. Win bet on Cosmic Crusader, saver on Royal Supremacy.
Race 10: Nationwide Tristarc Stakes, 5:50PM, 1400m
Shadhavar finishes the day for the same rider and trainer as Cavalry Girl. Three runs since July have brought a win, two placings and more than $128,000 in that time, and a win from two starts here. Williams rides from barrier 9.
Concord Connie looks the main rival. The form shows three wins in a row before a second at the only run since July, and Jett Stanley places at better than four in ten Caulfield rides. Merrigold has a win and three placings from four starts here but has missed the frame in both recent runs. Gold Medallist placed in two of three course starts.
No price available. Win bet on Shadhavar.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Cavalry Girl (Race 6, 3:10PM). Three wins and a second since July and placed at every Caulfield start. Williams rides from a draw that lets him sit wherever he likes.
Value: Eagle Express (Race 3, 1:25PM). $10.00 with Unibet against an even-money favourite that has not placed in two runs here. A win and a second from two runs since July says this price is too big.
Banker: Cosmic Crusader (Race 9, 5:15PM). Five runs since July and never out of the first three. Barrier 17 makes the win harder, but this is still the most reliable horse in the Cup.
Each-way: I Am Aria (Race 4, 2:00PM). Placed in three of four Caulfield starts and second to a Guineas runner last time. That habit of running into the frame here should hold again.
Course angle: Craig Williams at Caulfield. Half of his 107 rides here have finished in the first three, and he rides Miss Waititi, Cavalry Girl and Shadhavar today.
If Cosmic Crusader can overcome barrier 17 in the Cup, that preparation will be the one other spring stayers are measured against.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Caulfield on Saturday?
Race 1, the Sportsbet Classic over 2000m, jumps at 12:15PM. The Thousand Guineas goes at 3:45PM, the Caulfield Cup at 5:15PM, and the Nationwide Tristarc Stakes closes the ten-race card at 5:50PM on a Good track.
Who are the leading trainers and jockeys at Caulfield?
C Maher has trained 36 winners from 233 Caulfield runners, and A & S Freedman win with one runner in five here. Among riders, Craig Williams has 17 wins and 54 placings from 107 rides, and Ethan Brown has won 12 of his 60.
What are the best bets at Caulfield today?
Cavalry Girl in Race 6 is the NAP after three wins and a second since July. Cosmic Crusader in the Cup is the banker, and Pretty Baby is the pick of the Thousand Guineas.
Where can I find the best Caulfield odds?
Live prices were up for the first three races at the time of writing: Miss Waititi was $3.00 with Bet Right and Eagle Express $10.00 with Unibet. Markets for Race 4 onwards, including the Cup and the Guineas, had not opened, so compare the bookmakers listed above once they do.