Overview
Lockyer has won three of four starts at Doomben, and arrives for the Sky Racing Plate having finished in the first three at every one of five runs over the last three months. Three of those were wins. That is the best form line on Saturday’s card, and it comes from the stable that dominates this track.
T J Gollan has saddled 276 runners at Doomben for 47 winners, and the stable sends a big team across the afternoon, with three runners in each of four races. The pairing to watch is Gollan with Bella Youngberry, who have won six of their 17 rides together here. That combination runs through these Doomben racing tips more than once.
The essentials: ten races on a Good to Soft track, the first at 11:38AM and the last at 5:23PM, from 1110m up to 2200m. Scratchings have thinned several fields, and the first two races are the only ones with live prices at the time of writing. I’ll be most involved in the middle of the card and in Race 9.
Doomben racing tips: reading the Good to Soft card
Unlike most provincial meetings, there is real course form to work with here. Plenty of today’s runners have been around Doomben three or more times, and a handful have five starts of evidence. Dominant Darcy and Headhunter have each found the frame four times from five visits, while Carravilla has the most experience on the card with six starts for two wins.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabulantes | 3 | 2 | 3 | 66.7 | 100.0 |
| Dominant Darcy | 5 | 2 | 4 | 40.0 | 80.0 |
| Headhunter | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20.0 | 80.0 |
| Lockyer | 4 | 3 | 3 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Spiethtacular | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25.0 | 75.0 |
| Laridae | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20.0 | 60.0 |
| Carravilla | 6 | 2 | 3 | 33.3 | 50.0 |
| Ready For Aimee | 4 | 1 | 2 | 25.0 | 50.0 |
| Toro Strike | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20.0 | 40.0 |
The riding ranks are deep. Youngberry hits the frame on half of 50 Doomben rides, Ben Thompson has the volume with 31 winners from 165 rides, and M Rodd converts at the best strike rate of the regulars, winning one race in five here.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bella Youngberry | 50 | 9 | 25 | 18.0 | 50.0 |
| Ben Thompson | 165 | 31 | 74 | 18.8 | 44.8 |
| Jace Mcmurray | 99 | 15 | 44 | 15.2 | 44.4 |
| A Mallyon | 43 | 3 | 18 | 7.0 | 41.9 |
| Angela Jones | 75 | 12 | 30 | 16.0 | 40.0 |
| M Rodd | 83 | 17 | 33 | 20.5 | 39.8 |
| Ryan Maloney | 92 | 15 | 36 | 16.3 | 39.1 |
| Jag Guthmann-Chester | 68 | 7 | 25 | 10.3 | 36.8 |
Gollan is the name on the training side, but Jack Bruce wins with almost one in five Doomben runners from a smaller base, and the Neasham and Archibald stable places more than half the time. C J Waller has 140 runners here for 23 winners and brings six starters.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald | 52 | 8 | 27 | 15.4 | 51.9 |
| Matthew Hoysted | 50 | 9 | 25 | 18.0 | 50.0 |
| Jack Bruce | 57 | 11 | 25 | 19.3 | 43.9 |
| T J Gollan | 276 | 47 | 121 | 17.0 | 43.8 |
| R L Heathcote | 103 | 14 | 45 | 13.6 | 43.7 |
| Michael Freedman | 30 | 6 | 13 | 20.0 | 43.3 |
| C J Waller | 140 | 23 | 57 | 16.4 | 40.7 |
| C Maher | 40 | 5 | 16 | 12.5 | 40.0 |
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Race by race: Doomben predictions
Race 1: Become A Brc Member Hcp, 11:38AM, 1600m
Two horses dominate the market, and they met last start. Apostle beat Win Star at Eagle Farm on 3 October, running second to Win Star‘s third, and that is the only time they have finished in the same race. Apostle has placed twice from three runs in the last three months and Jace Mcmurray, who places on more than four in ten Doomben rides, keeps the ride from barrier 6.
The catch is weight. Apostle carries 58.5kg, the top of the handicap, and Win Star gets in at 54kg. Win Star is a frustrating type, four placings from five recent runs without a win, but the pull in the weights is enough to make the return bout closer than the last one.
The horse that interests me at the price is Pearl Pendant. The K A Lees three-year-old has won the last two starts and has 53.5kg, a full 5kg less than the favourite. D Moor draws the outside gate in a field cut to six by the scratchings of Misato and O’Reillys Flight, so the wide barrier matters less than usual.
Apostle is $2.10 with Bet Right and Win Star $2.55 with Unibet. Pearl Pendant at $7.00 with Bet Right is the bet: small win, with a saver on Apostle.
Race 2: Gallopers Sports Club (Bm80), 12:13PM, 2200m
Captain Maverick has finished in the first three at all six runs in the last three months, won the most recent of them, and banked $114,800 along the way. Few horses at the meeting are that reliable. Three tries here have produced one placing, so this is not a favourite track, but the Waller stable and Ryan Maloney combine on a horse that keeps turning up.
The market leans the other way, with Kenmare Bay and Taravia sharing favouritism at $2.80 with Bet Right. Kenmare Bay‘s form has improved run by run and the trainers have won with both of their Doomben runners. Taravia gets the light weight with Ben Thompson aboard and has placed three times from four recent runs. Either could beat my pick if the staying test turns into a sprint.
With Highland Kitty scratched, only two places are paid in a six horse field, which takes the shine off an each-way bet. At $3.70 with Bet Right, I’ll back Captain Maverick to win.
Race 3: Xxxx Plate (C3), 12:48PM, 1600m
The scratchings have gutted this one. Six runners are out, Jack Bruce has lost two of four, and what is left is a nine horse Class 3 without a standout. Markets weren’t up when this was written.
Toro Strike is the one with Doomben form, one win and two placings from five starts here, and the last start ended in a win. Ben Thompson takes the ride for a stable that wins with nearly a fifth of its runners at the track. Scripted is the danger from barrier 3: second, third and fourth in a pattern that says Scripted will be around the finish, with 53.5kg, the lightest weight in the field. Hopper won earlier in the current run of form but drew wide.
Small win bet on Toro Strike. This is a race to keep stakes light.
Race 4: Drinkwise (Rs1mw), 1:23PM, 1600m
Can anything stop The Louvre‘s run? The recent record says probably not: placed at all four runs in the last three months, two wins, and a win in the most recent. Anna Roper draws barrier 1, which in an eight horse field should mean a soft run just behind the speed.
Carravilla is the course horse, with two wins and three placings from six Doomben starts and a frame finish at four of six recent runs. The problem is barrier 13, which puts Carravilla and Tahlia Fenlon well out of the race early. Rochedale Hero, now running here rather than in Race 3, has placed at all four recent starts for Jack Bruce and is the each-way alternative. Don’tcha Think won one of two starts at the track and the Neasham and Archibald yard places more than half the time here.
Win bet on The Louvre, my banker for the multis.
Race 5: Canadian Club Hcp (65), 1:58PM, 1110m
Gollan starts three in the sprint, and the one I want is Cardonette. A win on the only Doomben start, wins in both runs in the last three months, and a form line that finishes with back to back wins. Ben Thompson rides, and the Thompson and Gollan combination has won eight of 40 here together with 23 placings.
Russian Ripper is the one to beat. Two wins from four recent runs for Anna Roper is form that fits this grade, though the K R Kemp stable has had only one winner from 41 Doomben runners. Custo is consistent, five placings from seven recent starts, and No Fooling and Impact Zone fill out the Gollan team. Boss Mode, Col Burn, Little Fella and Sort Cha Mess are among the scratchings.
Win bet on Cardonette.
Race 6: Ladbrokes Spring Racing Carnival (Bm70), 2:33PM, 1350m
Nine scratchings leave 12 runners and a race that should be run at a fair clip. That suits Ready For Aimee, who can settle off the speed from barrier 5 and has two wins and three placings from four runs in the last three months.
The booking is the clincher. Bella Youngberry and Gollan have won six of 17 here, and they have placed with 12 of them. Ready For Aimee also has one win from four Doomben starts, so the track holds no surprises. Gollan also runs He’s Tru Blue and Lebanese, but this is the one with the form and the rider.
Upstart Lover is the most dangerous of the rest, with two wins from four recent runs and the last two starts both won, but barrier 14 leaves a lot to do. Headhunter is the each-way horse. Four placings from five Doomben starts make Headhunter one of the most reliable track performers on the card, and the Hoysted stable places with half its runners here. Barrier 18 is the obstacle, which is why I want the place rather than the win.
Win on Ready For Aimee, each-way on Headhunter.
Race 7: Higgins Coatings (Bm78), 3:23PM, 1200m
Berezka grinds; Dominant Darcy owns the track. The race shape decides which profile comes out on top.
Berezka has won the last two and has two wins from three runs in the last three months, earning $60,400. The C Maher runner carries 58.5kg from barrier 12 under Anna Roper, with one placing from three Doomben starts, so the course record is the only soft spot.
Dominant Darcy is the opposite case: two wins and four placings from five starts here, the best record among the runners with five or more starts at the track, and Youngberry rides from barrier 1. But Dominant Darcy has had only one run in the last three months, a fourth, so fitness is the question. Spiethtacular, also from Gollan, has placed in all three recent runs and won the latest, which makes Spiethtacular a real threat from barrier 2. Just Precious and Gospel Girl are scratched.
Narrow call. Win bet on Berezka, with a saver on Dominant Darcy.
Race 8: Century Pools (Bm78), 4:00PM, 1200m
Troy Pascoe doesn’t bring many runners to Doomben, three in total for a win and two placings, so Propaganda‘s presence in a Benchmark 78 says the stable thinks Propaganda belongs. Both runs in the last three months were wins, and the form line reads like a horse still climbing. Anthony Allen rides from barrier 3.
Irama brings more depth: five runs lately for two wins and four placings, and two placings from two at the track. D Moor rides after Irama‘s scratching from Race 6. If Propaganda finds the step up too steep, Irama is the most likely winner. Off The Press has placed at all three recent starts for A Mallyon and is the place option. Stanislaus has one win and two placings from two visits here.
Win on Propaganda. Shelstein and Mercian are out.
Race 9: Sky Racing Plate (C6), 4:43PM, 1350m
Lockyer has been building to this all spring. Five starts in the last three months have produced three wins and two placings, $105,100 in prizemoney and an average finish just inside second. Lockyer is 3 from 4 at Doomben, the strongest win record of any runner here with more than two starts at the track.
The connections fit as well. Emily Pozman has won three of 11 Doomben rides and is 2 from 4 here for Gollan. Barrier 10 is wider than ideal in a field of 12, but Lockyer has shown the speed to hold a position. The weight is 56.5kg, the same as Just Precious and the Gollan stablemate Ten Deep, and less than Captain Furai and Thunderlips on 60kg.
The dangers are real. Just Precious, a scratching from Race 7, has won both runs in the last three months and has placed twice from two starts here. Metaphorically has also won the last two. Fabulantes has placed at all three Doomben starts for two wins, and on course form alone that is the one that worries me most. Jenni Moreese has four wins among the last six form figures and M Rodd rides, but there has been no run in the last three months.
The question is whether anything here has Lockyer‘s combination of current form and track record. I don’t think so. Markets were not up at the time of writing, so watch the opening price, but this is a firm win bet and my best of the day.
Race 10: More From Tote With Ladbrokes Hcp, 5:23PM, 1200m
Golden Straand has won three of the last four, including the only run in the last three months, which was worth $82,500. That is a big result for a horse at this level, and Ryan Maloney rides from barrier 5.
Flying Destiny is the course horse, with two wins from three starts here for Michael Freedman, whose runners win one race in five at Doomben. The only recent run produced a ninth, so the record has to be weighed against current form. Epic Proportions has one win and two placings from three Doomben starts and is the each-way option for Youngberry. Restonica won the only start here. Ser Joh, Biancelli, Tonneofgrit and At Witz End are scratched.
Win bet on Golden Straand, with Epic Proportions in the exactas.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Lockyer (Race 9, 4:43PM). Placed every time this spring, three wins from five, and a horse that keeps producing at Doomben. Pozman’s record on Lockyer and for the stable is the extra layer.
Value: Pearl Pendant (Race 1, 11:38AM). Two straight wins and 5kg less than the favourite in a six horse field. At $7.00 with Bet Right, that is the price of like a horse with no form.
Banker: The Louvre (Race 4, 1:23PM). Four runs this campaign, four placings, two wins, and the inside barrier in an eight horse race. This is the leg I’d trust most in a multi.
Each-way: Headhunter (Race 6, 2:33PM). Four placings from five Doomben starts. The wide draw makes a win harder, but a 12 horse field pays three places and the track record fits that bet.
Course angle: T J Gollan with Bella Youngberry. Six wins and 12 placings from 17 rides together here, and the partnership carries Ready For Aimee and Dominant Darcy today.
If Gollan keeps giving Youngberry the best Doomben rides, the stable’s bookings sheet will be the first thing I check when putting together Doomben racing tips for the rest of the spring.
FAQ
What time does the first race start at Doomben today?
Race 1, the Become A Brc Member Hcp over 1600m, jumps at 11:38AM. The last of ten races, the More From Tote With Ladbrokes Hcp, goes at 5:23PM on a track rated Good to Soft.
Who are the leading trainers and jockeys at Doomben?
T J Gollan has the most volume with 47 winners from 276 Doomben runners. Among the jockeys, Ben Thompson has 31 wins from 165 rides, M Rodd wins one race in five here, and Bella Youngberry places on half of 50 rides.
What are the best bets at Doomben today?
Lockyer in Race 9 is the top pick, with three wins from four starts at the track. The Louvre in Race 4 is the banker after placing in all four recent runs, and Pearl Pendant in Race 1 is the value play at $7.00 with Bet Right.
Where can I find the best Doomben odds?
Only the first two races had live prices when this was written, with Bet Right best on most runners, including Apostle at $2.10 and Captain Maverick at $3.70. Compare the bookmakers listed above once the later markets open, especially for Race 9.