Overview
A Bullock has ridden ten times at Muswellbrook for P Messara and L Gavranich, won on seven of them and finished in the first three every time. That partnership has Imelda in the opener and Costa Del Sol in Race 4, and it frames the whole of our Muswellbrook racing tips.
Seven races on a Good to Soft track run from 1:50PM to 5:30PM, three maidens and a Class 1 early, then three benchmark races to finish. The meeting has a clear set of top riders and stables, which helps, because course form among the horses is thin. The best betting race is the Bm66 at 4:15PM, where Wandjad goes for a third straight win. Markets were up for the first three races at the time of writing; the last four had no live prices.
Reading the Muswellbrook card
Four of today’s remaining runners have three or more Muswellbrook starts, and not one of them has won here. They place, though, which matters for each-way punters.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Darren | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 66.7 |
| Kermitisapet | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 66.7 |
| Love You Anyway | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 50.0 |
| Rebel’s Edge | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 33.3 |
The jockey list is where the real course evidence sits. Bullock wins almost a third of his Muswellbrook rides and places in more than two-thirds of them across 39 starts. Mitchell Bell has the most rides here of anyone on the card, 47, with ten winners.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Bullock | 39 | 12 | 27 | 30.8 | 69.2 |
| Ashley Morgan | 16 | 6 | 11 | 37.5 | 68.8 |
| Mitchell Bell | 47 | 10 | 28 | 21.3 | 59.6 |
| Gabrielle Johnston | 16 | 3 | 9 | 18.8 | 56.2 |
| Adam Farragher | 15 | 2 | 7 | 13.3 | 46.7 |
| Braith Nock | 32 | 4 | 12 | 12.5 | 37.5 |
Messara and Gavranich have won with ten of 21 Muswellbrook runners. Brett and Georgie Cavanough bring the biggest team and the most history, 60 runners here for nine wins and 29 placings.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Messara & L Gavranich | 21 | 10 | 15 | 47.6 | 71.4 |
| S Harvey | 7 | 3 | 5 | 42.9 | 71.4 |
| Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald | 48 | 12 | 27 | 25.0 | 56.2 |
| Brett & Georgie Cavanough | 60 | 9 | 29 | 15.0 | 48.3 |
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Muswellbrook best bets, race by race
Race 1: Ken Barnett Memorial Mdn Hcp, 1:50PM, 1500m
Imelda ran second on debut, at this track, on 5 October, and now gets the Bullock and Messara combination that has won seven of ten here. The market has already done the maths: $1.15 with Bet Right. There is no value in that price, but there is not much doubt either.
Mission Strike, $6.00 with Unibet, resumes after five unplaced runs and would need a big lift. Crispy Leaves, $8.50 with Ladbrokes, has one placing in three recent starts. Imelda is a multi leg, not a win bet at the price.
Race 2: Bernie Callinan Memorial Mdn Hcp, 2:25PM, 900m
Can Doralee finally win one? Five starts, four seconds and a fourth. Bullock rides again, and $1.65 with Neds says the market thinks this is the day. Over the shortest trip on the card, from barrier 9, Doralee should be in the finish again, but a horse that keeps finding one better is not one to lump on at odds-on.
The danger is the unknown. Pure Motive debuts for the Cavanough stable with Mitchell Bell, who places in six of every ten Muswellbrook rides, and Suns Out Girls Out also debuts. Both are $5.50. Doralee for the place, or as a small multi leg. No win bet at the price.
Race 3: Tony Towler Memorial Hcp (C1), 3:05PM, 1450m
Crime Of Passion and Sutton Storm arrive with identical recent records: two runs in the last 90 days, a win and a second each, and $19,000 earned apiece. The difference is the order. Crime Of Passion won last time; Sutton Storm won before that and then ran second.
The market has made Crime Of Passion a strong favourite at $1.85 with Bet Right, helped by barrier 1 and a Cavanough stable that has three runners in the race. R Hutchings can sit on the fence and wait. That is a sound case, and Crime Of Passion is the most likely winner.
Sutton Storm is where the price looks wrong. At $4.20 with Neds, it is more than twice the price of a horse with the same recent numbers. G Buckley has ridden one winner from 43 Muswellbrook rides, which explains some of the gap, but R P Northam has four winners and 11 placings from 33 runners here. Interro, $6.00 with Ladbrokes, carries the Neasham colours and is the third chance. Win bet on Crime Of Passion; Sutton Storm is the value saver.
Race 4: Phil Pottinger Memorial Country Boosted Mdn Plate, 3:40PM, 1280m
The stable move decides this one. Thirty Degrees, the most consistent horse in the field, has been scratched, and that hands the race to Messara and Gavranich, who have two debutants. Costa Del Sol gets Bullock, the partnership that has won seven of ten here. Moongleam gets Ashley Morgan, who has won six of 16 Muswellbrook rides.
Backing a debutant always carries risk, but a stable that wins with nearly half its runners here earns the benefit of the doubt. Divine Blessing, second at its first start before an eighth, draws the rail and is the best of the horses with form. Unalienable Right has placed once in two recent runs for Gabrielle Johnston. No market yet. Costa Del Sol to win, with Moongleam as the saver.
Race 5: Jim Rodger Memorial Country Boosted (Bm66), 4:15PM, 1500m
The shape here is simple. Wandjad has won its last two, won on its only Muswellbrook start, and won two of three in the last 90 days for $33,150. That is the best set of numbers on the card, and A Gibbons rides for W T Wilkes, who has four Muswellbrook winners from 32 runners.
What makes it interesting is Nugget Smart. Second, second, then a win last start, with four placings from five runs in 90 days. Gabrielle Johnston places in more than half her Muswellbrook rides, and Nugget Smart carries the least weight in the race, a long way below Wandjad. If Wandjad gets caught wide or the weight tells late, this is the one that benefits.
Hinto, second last start and ridden by M Weir, is the third horse in the picture. Ring Ahoy has top weight and has not won in its last four. When prices arrive, Wandjad is the win bet, with a Wandjad and Nugget Smart exacta for anyone who wants cover.
Race 6: Dot Robinson (Bm58), 4:50PM, 1000m
Harvey’s Turn won last start, has three thirds earlier on its form line, and has a win and a placing from three runs in the last 90 days. Bullock rides from barrier 8. Over 1000m, a horse in form with the meeting’s best rider is a hard combination to oppose.
Won’thearmecoming is the danger with a catch. It won its only Muswellbrook start and was second before that, but barrier 17 over a sprint trip is a lot to overcome. Blue Dane has two placings from two recent runs for S Harvey, who has won with three of seven runners here. Harvey’s Turn to win.
Race 7: Pat Farrell Memorial (Bm66), 5:30PM, 1280m
Ode So Much and Amarone offer two different kinds of consistency. Ode So Much has finished third, second, first and third this preparation for D Northey and Simon Casey, whose Muswellbrook runners have placed three times from five. Amarone has gone second, first, second at its last three.
Ode So Much gets the narrow vote off barrier 13 because it has been in the first three at all four starts this preparation, while Madeline Owen, on Amarone, has two placings and no wins from eight rides here. Jason Darren, placed twice from three Muswellbrook starts, is the course runner to add to trifectas. Currumbin Alley, from barrier 1 for Cavanough, needs to bounce back from a ninth. Ode So Much each-way. Hard race, small stakes.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Wandjad (Race 5, 4:15PM). Two straight wins, a win on its only visit here, and the best 90-day record on the card. The weight is the only question.
Value: Sutton Storm (Race 3, 3:05PM), $4.20 with Neds. The same recent record as the favourite at more than twice the price.
Banker: Imelda (Race 1, 1:50PM), $1.15 with Bet Right. A Muswellbrook second on debut and the partnership that has won seven of ten here. Multi material only at that price.
Each-way: Nugget Smart (Race 5, 4:15PM). Four placings from five runs in 90 days and the lightest weight in the race. If Wandjad slips, this is the one to be on.
Course angle: A Bullock riding for Messara and Gavranich. Ten rides at Muswellbrook, seven wins, never out of the first three.
If Costa Del Sol also wins for that partnership, the Messara and Bullock booking will be the first thing Muswellbrook punters look for at every meeting.
Muswellbrook racing tips FAQ
What time does racing start at Muswellbrook today?
Race 1, the Ken Barnett Memorial Maiden Handicap over 1500m, starts at 1:50PM. The Pat Farrell Memorial Bm66 over 1280m closes the card at 5:30PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Muswellbrook?
A Bullock has 12 wins and 27 placings from 39 Muswellbrook rides, and Mitchell Bell has ten wins from 47. Among trainers, P Messara and L Gavranich have won with ten of 21 runners here, and Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald have 12 winners from 48.
What are the best bets at Muswellbrook today?
Wandjad in Race 5 is our best bet, after two straight wins and a win on its only Muswellbrook start. Imelda in Race 1 is the banker and Crime Of Passion in Race 3 is the likely winner, with Sutton Storm the value in that race.
Where can I find the best odds for Muswellbrook races?
Prices for the first three races were live when this was written, with Imelda $1.15 with Bet Right, Doralee $1.65 with Neds and Sutton Storm $4.20 with Neds. The later races had no market yet, so check the bookmakers in our list above closer to the jump.