Overview
MS W Costin has won four of 11 rides at Orange and placed in seven, the best record of any jockey on Monday’s card, and the bookings say trainers know it. Costin rides the favourite Farcolo in the opener, Too Hot To Handle in Race 3 and Grafology, a last-start winner, in Race 6. That sets the tone for our Orange racing tips.
Seven races on a Good track run from 2:10PM to 5:50PM: two maidens and a Class 1 early, a sprint maiden, then three benchmark races to close. Course form among the horses is almost non-existent, so this is a card for reading recent form and connections. The day’s strongest selection comes last, where Wellspring has placed at all three runs in the last 90 days and won the most recent. Markets were live for the first three races at the time of writing.
What Orange gives us today
Limited course form across today’s fields. Most runners with an Orange start have one or two here, and the handful of course placings are spread thinly. Twin Gift won one of its two starts at the track, and Brogans Creek has placed in both of its.
The riders carry more weight. Costin leads the way, and Jacob Stiff has placed in half of his 20 Orange rides with three wins, which matters given he rides Wellspring and Naval Officer late in the day.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS W Costin | 11 | 4 | 7 | 36.4 | 63.6 |
| Jacob Stiff | 20 | 3 | 10 | 15.0 | 50.0 |
| J Pracey-Holmes | 17 | 1 | 7 | 5.9 | 41.2 |
| Clayton Gallagher | 18 | 2 | 7 | 11.1 | 38.9 |
| Damon Budler | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22.2 | 33.3 |
No trainer dominates. MS A Smith has the most Orange runners, 30 for three winners and 11 placings, while Bjorn Baker has won with two of eight and has the favourite in two of the first three races.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David J Smith | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16.7 | 66.7 |
| N J Olive | 8 | 1 | 5 | 12.5 | 62.5 |
| Bjorn Baker | 8 | 2 | 4 | 25.0 | 50.0 |
| G Portelli | 9 | 1 | 4 | 11.1 | 44.4 |
| MS A Smith | 30 | 3 | 11 | 10.0 | 36.7 |
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Orange odds and tips, race by race
Race 1: On-Trac Ag Orange & Bathurst Mdn Hcp, 2:10PM, 1600m
The market has Farcolo as a $3.60 favourite with Bet Right, and that price is about the rider, not the horse. Farcolo has had three starts in the last 90 days without a placing, and the best of its five career runs is a fifth. Costin and the inside gate make it a runner, but a short-priced one with plenty to prove.
Grey Belief, $5.25 with Bet Right, has placed in three of six runs in the last 90 days, the most consistent record in the race, and finished third last time. J Pracey-Holmes rides from barrier 9. Alideel has three straight fifths and C Lever has won two of three Orange rides. Weak maiden; Grey Belief each-way is the play, and it is a small one.
Race 2: Pirtek Orange Hcp (C1), 2:45PM, 1400m
Macaroon has had two starts, a third and then a win, and Bjorn Baker brings it to Orange, where he has won with two of eight runners. At $1.90 with Neds the market expects another win, and from barrier 3 in a field of eight there is little to argue with.
Dundeel Flyer is the one to beat it. A win two starts back and a second last time, and $3.90 with Unibet is a fair reflection of a horse in form. The Contractor, at $5.50 with Neds, has not placed in its last two. Macaroon is the banker for multis, with Dundeel Flyer as the saver.
Race 3: Orange Vet Hospital Mdn Plate, 3:20PM, 1300m
Three Wishes keeps running into the placings: four top-three finishes from six career starts, including three of four in the last 90 days. That is the most solid form in the race, and $4.80 with Bet Right is longer than the favourites.
Invasion is the $3.20 favourite with Ladbrokes for Bjorn Baker, but its three starts read eighth, fifth, fourth. Too Hot To Handle, $3.60 with Ladbrokes, gets Costin. The value is Winter Garden, second at its latest start and $8.00 with Ladbrokes, with C Lever riding from barrier 2. Three Wishes each-way, and a small win bet on Winter Garden.
Race 4: Angullong Wines Country Boosted Mdn Hcp, 3:55PM, 1000m
Eddy The Greyt has had one start, at Orange, and ran third. Clayton Gallagher takes the ride over a sprint trip that suits a horse who already knows the track. Nightwalker has three Orange starts for one placing and gets in light for MS A Smith. Alotofsoju, a likely danger, is scratched. Timeless Love debuts for David J Smith, whose Orange runners have placed four times from six. Watch the market on the debutant, but Eddy The Greyt is the pick. Win bet once prices appear.
Race 5: Australian National Field Days 22nd -24th Oct (Bm58), 4:35PM, 1300m
Vinari has won one of three runs in the last 90 days and placed in two, for $20,800 in prize money, and has a placing from two Orange starts. MS C Keatings rides for N J Olive, whose Orange runners place more than six times in ten. Vinari ran second at its latest start after two wins earlier in the form line.
I Am Mamwaazel won last start, but before that the form reads seventh, third, ninth, unplaced, unplaced, so it needs to prove it can back up. Geostorm has two placings from four recent runs without a win. The Contractor is scratched from this race too. Vinari to win.
Race 6: Bank Orange (Bm58), 5:10PM, 1600m
Grafology or Boujee Gold? Grafology won its latest start and gets Costin, the in-form rider at the track. Boujee Gold has the better recent body of work, three placings and a win from four runs in 90 days, for $21,375.
The rider tips it. Costin’s record here is too good to ignore, and Grafology won last time, which says the horse is on the way up. Boujee Gold is the danger and the place bet. Naval Officer, second last start with Jacob Stiff, has placed on its only Orange visit and is the third chance. Grafology to win, Boujee Gold for the place.
Race 7: Spanline Orange & Bathurst Country Boosted (Bm50), 5:50PM, 1000m
Wellspring has placed at all three runs in the last 90 days, and the latest was a win. Sixth, second, third, then first. Jacob Stiff, who places in half his Orange rides, gets the ride on a horse in the best form of its career line, and a field cut by five scratchings gives it room to work from barrier 10.
Brogans Creek also won last start and has placed in both Orange runs for Clayton Gallagher and Toby Pracey. That is the danger, and the only other horse here with recent winning form and course placings together. Twin Gift won one of its two starts here but finished eighth last time. Back Wellspring to win, with an exacta on Brogans Creek.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Wellspring (Race 7, 5:50PM). Three placings from three recent runs, the latest a win, and a jockey who knows the track. The improvement line is the strongest on the card.
Value: Winter Garden (Race 3, 3:20PM), $8.00 with Ladbrokes. Second at its latest start, and the price says the market has not caught up.
Banker: Macaroon (Race 2, 2:45PM), $1.90 with Neds. Two starts for a third and a win, and a stable that wins here.
Each-way: Three Wishes (Race 3, 3:20PM), $4.80 with Bet Right. Three placings from four in 90 days. It knows where the frame is.
Course angle: MS W Costin. Four wins and seven placings from 11 Orange rides, with four rides today, including Grafology in Race 6.
If Costin lands a winner or two again, trainers sending horses to Orange will be queueing for Costin on the next card.
Orange racing tips FAQ
What time does racing start at Orange today?
Race 1, the On-Trac Ag Orange and Bathurst Maiden Handicap over 1600m, jumps at 2:10PM. The last, the Spanline Orange and Bathurst Bm50 over 1000m, is at 5:50PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Orange?
MS W Costin has four wins and seven placings from 11 Orange rides, and Jacob Stiff has placed in ten of his 20. MS A Smith has the most Orange runners among today’s trainers, 30 for three wins, and Bjorn Baker has won with two of eight.
What are the best bets at Orange today?
Wellspring in Race 7 is our best bet after placing in all three runs in the last 90 days and winning the latest. Macaroon in Race 2 is the banker and Winter Garden in Race 3 is the value.
Where can I find the best odds for Orange races?
Prices for the first three races were live when this was written, with Macaroon $1.90 with Neds and Winter Garden $8.00 with Ladbrokes. Compare the bookmakers in our list above once markets for the later races open.