Overview
M J Dunn and A Mallyon have teamed up 28 times at Grafton for 11 wins and 18 placings. That partnership is the thread through Tuesday’s card, with Mallyon booked on four Dunn runners, and the first of them, Overabundant, is already the favourite in the maiden at 1:50PM.
Eight races on a Heavy track run from 1:15PM to 5:30PM, from a 1020m maiden handicap up to a 2385m BM58 staying test, with the Jacaranda Cup Prelude as the feature at 3:40PM. Our Grafton racing tips lean on two things: the horses with proven form here, of which there are more than usual, and the stables that win at the track. Bookmakers had priced the first four races when this was written; Races 5 to 8 had no market yet, so those are form calls.
Grafton, the setup
Course form is deeper than at most country meetings. Rich Star has run in the first three at all five of its Grafton starts, Poseidon’s Son has won all three of its, and Star Of Winston and Graceful Warrior have placed in three of four. Those four horses carry most of the course-form argument on the card.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poseidon’s Son | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Rich Star | 5 | 3 | 5 | 60.0 | 100.0 |
| Star Of Winston | 4 | 2 | 3 | 50.0 | 75.0 |
| Graceful Warrior | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25.0 | 75.0 |
| Tara Koda | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16.7 | 50.0 |
| Sun Topaze | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20.0 | 40.0 |
The riding ranks are led by Mallyon, who wins nearly a third of his Grafton rides and places in six of every ten. Archie McColm and G Spokes have ridden here more than anyone on the card, though their strike rates are lower.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Mallyon | 45 | 14 | 27 | 31.1 | 60.0 |
| Benjamin Osmond | 14 | 2 | 7 | 14.3 | 50.0 |
| Archie McColm | 71 | 7 | 31 | 9.9 | 43.7 |
| Jett Newman | 42 | 7 | 18 | 16.7 | 42.9 |
| G Spokes | 89 | 6 | 33 | 6.7 | 37.1 |
| B Looker | 91 | 11 | 25 | 12.1 | 27.5 |
Dunn has brought 96 runners to Grafton for 22 winners. K A Lees has a smaller but sharper sample with six winners from 15, and Adam Campton has placed seven of his ten.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C R Manson | 7 | 3 | 5 | 42.9 | 71.4 |
| Adam Campton | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30.0 | 70.0 |
| K A Lees | 15 | 6 | 10 | 40.0 | 66.7 |
| M J Dunn | 96 | 22 | 57 | 22.9 | 59.4 |
| Stirling Osland | 22 | 5 | 9 | 22.7 | 40.9 |
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Grafton race by race
Race 1: Graftontickets.Com.Au Mdn Plate, 1:15PM, 1725m
Queen Of Thinking has had two starts and run second at the most recent one, earning $6,550 in the process. That is the best recent form in a weak maiden, and the connections give it more weight. K A Lees has won with six of his 15 Grafton runners, and Benjamin Osmond places in half of his rides here.
The market agrees, with Queen Of Thinking at $2.05 with Unibet. Sarmat at $4.20 with Bet Right is the next best on form, with G Spokes riding, but four recent runs have not produced a placing. Mission Strike at $2.80 with Ladbrokes is a shorter price than its form line of 9950-5 justifies, and its rider was still to be named when this was written. Final Pretence is scratched. Win bet on Queen Of Thinking.
Race 2: Book A Christmas Party @ Crjc Country Boosted Maiden Handicap, 1:50PM, 1020m
The market has Overabundant at $1.90 with Unibet, and it has never raced. That price is all about the stable. Dunn and Mallyon win close to four in every ten together at Grafton, and a first-starter from that partnership in a weak maiden handicap is the sort of placement they get right.
Short odds on a debutant on a Heavy track is a lot to take, though. Mama Tried, another newcomer, is next at $5.50 with Unibet with G Spokes aboard. Parting The Seas at $5.75 with Bet Right and Universal Energy at $6.50 with Bet Right both come from J D Shelton’s stable and both have had a run, so they at least know what the job is. Ayaka and Encontre are scratched. Overabundant is the pick, but at the price this is a watch race for betting purposes.
Race 3: Crjc Agm 25 November Mdn Plate, 2:25PM, 1220m
Hard to have a strong view. Plume is the $3.70 favourite with Unibet, but its form line ends with a seventh and an eighth, and one placing from three recent starts is not the profile of a short-priced maiden. Limbazi at $4.40 with Bet Right is unraced.
Dancing By is the one that interests us at $6.50 with Unibet. It has had two runs, but Adam Campton places seven of his ten Grafton runners and has won with three. Naystar, at $5.75 with Bet Right, has the Dunn stable behind it and Jett Newman riding. Encontre, Logan Downs, Duchess Difficult and Sparkling Betty are all scratched, which leaves a thin field. Small each-way bet on Dancing By; otherwise leave it alone.
Race 4: Work Christmas Party @ Crjc (Bm58), 3:05PM, 2385m
Two staying profiles meet here, and the Heavy ground decides how much each one matters. Questionable has won one and placed in four of six runs in the last 90 days, worth $19,175, and its form line of 653131 says it won last time and has been in the first three at each of its last four. It is the $4.60 favourite with Unibet.
Sun Topaze is the course horse. It has had five Grafton starts for a win and two placings, and its two most recent runs were a win and a second. Jett Newman rides from barrier 1, which is a big help over 2385m when the ground is this soft and nobody wants to cover extra ground. At $8.50 with Bet Right, that looks generous.
California Grass, at $5.25 with Bet Right, has placed in two of five recent runs without winning. Mahuika Maroi has three placings from five recent starts. Questionable to win, with Sun Topaze the each-way play at the bigger price.
Race 5: Jacaranda Cup Prelude (Bm82), 3:40PM, 1120m
The feature, and the best course-form race of the day. Rich Star has raced five times at Grafton for three wins, and it has never finished out of the first three here. Its last three runs, all in the last 90 days, produced three placings, which tells you it is holding its form even without winning. Grace Palmer rides for C R Manson, who has three winners and five placings from seven Grafton runners.
The handicap helps as well. Rich Star gets in lighter than most of the field, and over 1120m on a wet track every kilogram counts. From barrier 4 it can settle just off the speed and let the leaders wear each other out.
Poseidon’s Son is the obvious threat. It has won all three of its starts at Grafton for Dunn, but its last three runs have been a seventh, a sixth and a fourth, most recent first, and neither of its two runs in the last 90 days placed. Humphree Bear has a win and three placings from five recent runs, with B Looker riding. Lady Wardell has the most prize money in the race from her recent form, with a win among five starts. Beaux Rumble is scratched.
No market was open when this was written. Rich Star is the banker on the card, and the win bet when prices come up. Saver on Poseidon’s Son if it drifts.
Race 6: Book A Christmas Race Meeting Marquee Hcp (C1), 4:15PM, 1120m
Dunn has two in this, Brief Authority and Pinkish Hue, and Mallyon is listed on both, so one of those bookings has to change. Brief Authority is the one to follow either way. It won its only start in the last 90 days, collecting $15,000, and has a win from two Grafton starts.
Happyaziam won on its only start for Adam Campton and comes in as the lightly raced danger. Real Mccoy has a win and two placings from four recent runs and the most prize money in the field. Shame On Sue and Land Speed are scratched. Brief Authority to win, and watch who ends up riding Pinkish Hue.
Race 7: Team Aidan Markets @ Crjc 22 November (Bm66), 4:50PM, 1625m
Always A Rainbow has placed at all four of its starts in the last 90 days, won one of them, and won on its only Grafton visit. B Looker rides for Stirling Osland, who has five winners from 22 runners here. Barrier 13 is the problem in a big field, but over 1625m there is time to find cover.
Herald Angel is the danger on numbers: two wins and three placings from three recent runs, worth $34,000, and a win on its only Grafton start for Dunn. Its rider was still to be confirmed. Venom Wolf also won on its only visit here. Seething Chuck is scratched. Always A Rainbow each-way, with Herald Angel in the exacta.
Race 8: Crjc Christmas Race Day 29 November Country Boosted Hcp (C2), 5:30PM, 1425m
Wild Monarch closes the card and it is our best bet of the day. Three runs in the last 90 days have produced two wins and a placing, worth $42,050, which is more than any other horse at the meeting has earned in that time. It has placed in both of its Grafton starts. Mallyon gets the ride for MS J Graham, who has placed all four of her Grafton runners.
Barrier 2 adds to the case. Wild Monarch can take a position close to the rail, and on Heavy ground that saves the kind of energy that wins the last 200m.
Star Of Winston is the clear danger. It has won two of four Grafton starts and has two wins and four placings from five recent runs, with Archie McColm riding. Graceful Warrior has placed in three of four here. Sunset Trail and Risk For Reward are scratched. Back Wild Monarch to win when the market opens, with Star Of Winston as the exacta saver.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Wild Monarch (Race 8, 5:30PM). Two wins from three recent starts, placed in both Grafton runs, and the leading jockey at the track. It ends the day on the best form at the meeting.
Value: Sun Topaze (Race 4, 3:05PM), $8.50 with Bet Right. A win and a second at its last two, proven at Grafton, and the inside gate in a staying race on soft ground.
Banker: Rich Star (Race 5, 3:40PM). Five Grafton starts, five placings. In a multi, that is the leg you build around.
Each-way: Dancing By (Race 3, 2:25PM), $6.50 with Unibet. A light record, but Adam Campton places seven in ten of his Grafton runners.
Course angle: Dunn and Mallyon. Eleven wins from 28 together here, and four chances today. Overabundant at 1:50PM is the first test.
If Rich Star keeps its record intact, it will head into the Jacaranda Cup as the horse every Grafton punter has to beat.
Grafton racing tips FAQ
What time does racing start at Grafton today?
Race 1, the Graftontickets.Com.Au Maiden Plate over 1725m, jumps at 1:15PM. The last, the Christmas Race Day Country Boosted Class 2 Handicap over 1425m, goes at 5:30PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Grafton?
A Mallyon leads today’s riders with 14 wins and 27 placings from 45 Grafton rides. M J Dunn has trained 22 winners from 96 runners at the track, and K A Lees has six from 15.
What are the best bets at Grafton today?
Wild Monarch in Race 8 is our best bet, after two wins from three runs in the last 90 days. Rich Star in Race 5, placed in all five Grafton starts, is the banker, and Queen Of Thinking is our pick in the opener.
Where can I find the best odds for Grafton races?
Races 1 to 4 were priced when this was written, with Queen Of Thinking $2.05 with Unibet and Sun Topaze $8.50 with Bet Right. The later races had no market yet, so compare the bookmakers in our list above once those open.