Overview
Aurora Belle has raced three times and won three times, and the Hayes stable brings her to Geelong on Wednesday as a $1.95 favourite in a Benchmark 70. That is the shortest price on the card, and it sets the tone for a meeting where a handful of horses with clean recent records meet fields that are otherwise hard to split.
There are nine races on a turf track rated Good, starting at 12:40PM and finishing with the Sporting Globe MCC Series heat at 5:20PM. The Ladbrokes Geelong Cup over 2625m is the feature at 4:10PM, and the 3yo Geelong Classic at 3:00PM gives the spring three-year-olds a look at a mile and a half. These Geelong racing tips work through every race, flag where the course form is real and where it is thin, and finish with the bets we would actually have. The quaddie runs from Race 6 to Race 9, and those four races were not yet priced by the bookmakers when this was written.
What Geelong gives us today
Five of today’s runners have had three or more starts at Geelong, which is enough to be worth a table. Most of the rest have one or two runs here, so read those as single data points rather than patterns.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay Humble | 3 | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 100.0 |
| Mr Assertive | 3 | 2 | 2 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Lario | 3 | 2 | 2 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Vegas Jack | 3 | 1 | 1 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Hawk Power | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
The jockey numbers have more depth. Craig Williams stands out with five winners from just 12 Geelong rides, and Jordan Childs hits the frame on almost two thirds of his rides here despite only two wins.
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Childs | 25 | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 64.0 |
| Ethan Brown | 8 | 3 | 5 | 37.5 | 62.5 |
| Ben Allen | 10 | 1 | 6 | 10.0 | 60.0 |
| Jabez Johnstone | 17 | 2 | 10 | 11.8 | 58.8 |
| Craig Williams | 12 | 5 | 7 | 41.7 | 58.3 |
| D Yendall | 24 | 4 | 14 | 16.7 | 58.3 |
| Damian Lane | 15 | 3 | 7 | 20.0 | 46.7 |
Among the trainers, C Maher has the volume, with 62 Geelong runners for ten winners, and he has 14 runners on today’s card. Busuttin and Young place with ten of their 14 runners here.
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T Busuttin & N Young | 14 | 3 | 10 | 21.4 | 71.4 |
| G M Begg | 14 | 2 | 10 | 14.3 | 71.4 |
| R D Griffiths | 11 | 2 | 7 | 18.2 | 63.6 |
| Tom Dabernig | 24 | 5 | 14 | 20.8 | 58.3 |
| C Maher | 62 | 10 | 34 | 16.1 | 54.8 |
| L & T Corstens & W Larkin | 17 | 5 | 8 | 29.4 | 47.1 |
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Geelong race by race
Race 1: Batesford Hotel (Bm70), 12:40PM, 2625m
Fiorowngood comes into the opener on a three-race winning streak, and the market still has him at $8.50 with Bet Right. Over the last 90 days he has won three of six and placed in five, so this is not a horse that got lucky once. Damian Lane rides for Symon Wilde, and Lane has won three of his 15 Geelong rides. The query is barrier 13 over 2625m, which means either a long trip wide or a patient ride from the back.
Nottolook is the danger. He has won two of three in the same window, placed in all three, and carries 133.3kg for Patrick Payne at $5.00 with Ladbrokes. Mr O’Reilly heads the market at $3.50 but has placed twice without winning lately. At the odds, Fiorowngood each-way is the play, with Nottolook as the saver.
Race 2: Hall Chadwick (Bm66), 1:15PM, 1203m
Can a horse that has won both its Geelong starts really be $11? That is the question about Immortal Triumph, who has two wins from two here and two wins from four runs in the last 90 days. L Currie takes the ride for MS D Loos from barrier 9, and Currie places on just over half of his Geelong rides.
Royal Rendezvous is the $3.50 favourite with Unibet, but has one placing from two runs this spell. Mr Assertive has won two of three at the track and is $13 with Bet Right, which earns him a place in the trifecta. Ten Warriors, at $5.00 with Ladbrokes, has won one of its last three. Immortal Triumph each-way at $11 with Unibet is our bet, because a sprint field this big rarely runs to the market and he already knows how to win here.
Race 3: Prestige Event Hire (Bm70), 1:50PM, 1422m
Aurora Belle is three from three, and Ethan Brown rides for the Hayes stable. Brown has won three of his eight rides at Geelong and placed on five. Aurora Belle steps out of barrier 7 at $1.95 with Ladbrokes, and the one run in the last 90 days was a win. Nothing about this race asks her a question she has not answered.
Lario is the one to respect. He has won two of his three Geelong starts and his last two runs read first and second, but he carries 136.6kg, the most in the field. Misty Whisper at $4.80 with Bet Right has placed in both runs this spell. Back Aurora Belle to win and use her as the leg in any multi.
Race 4: Geelong Caravanning Leisurefest (Bm66), 2:25PM, 1531m
The shape here favours Karren. Ethan Brown is up again for Lloyd Kennewell, and Karren has a win and a second from her two runs in the last 90 days, plus a placing on her only Geelong start. She is $2.90 with Unibet, which is short in a field of this size, but she is the most consistent horse in it.
Mr Natural is the danger at $10. He has won his only start here, his last three runs read 2, 4 and 1, and he gets in light at 122.3kg. Power And The Beat at $11 with Bet Right has won one of two at the track and placed in both. Win bet on Karren, with Mr Natural in the exacta.
Race 5: Roderick Insurance Brokers 3yo Geelong Classic, 3:00PM, 2406m
True Tone is the $2.70 favourite with Unibet for C J Waller and Damian Lane, and his form says he deserves to be. He won one of four in the last 90 days and placed in two, and drawing barrier 2 should give Lane every option over 2406m. What gives us pause is the combination at this track: Lane and Waller have had two Geelong runners together without a placing. That is a tiny sample, but it is enough to look elsewhere at the price.
Icy You is the one we want. Craig Williams rides for Busuttin and Young, a stable that places with ten of its 14 Geelong runners, and Williams has won five of his 12 rides here. Icy You has placed in three of four runs this spell with one win, and his average finishing position over that stretch is 1.75. At $6.50 with Unibet he is a better bet than the favourite. Cold Shower, who won his only Geelong start for Waterhouse and Bott, is the outsider worth including at $12. Icy You each-way, with True Tone and Cold Shower in the trifecta.
Race 6: Dundee Rock (Bm70), 3:35PM, 1859m
Stay Humble has run three times at Geelong and finished in the first three every time, with one win. That record, plus four placings and a win from five runs in the last 90 days, makes him the most reliable horse in the first leg of the quaddie. Jabez Johnstone rides for C Maher, a partnership that has placed nine times from 16 Geelong runs together.
The worry is that he places more than he wins. Perfect Night, who placed on its only Geelong start and drops to 119kg with M J Dee, is the danger. No prices were up for this race at the time of writing. Stay Humble is the banker leg in the quaddie and an each-way bet in his own right.
Race 7: Ladbrokes Geelong Cup, 4:10PM, 2625m
The Cup is a contrast between two profiles. The Euphrates is the class horse: three runs in the last 90 days for a win and two placings, with $254,750 in prize money from that stretch alone, which is far more than anything else in this field has earned recently. He is trained by G Waterhouse and A Bott, ridden by B Shinn, and carries 128.9kg from barrier 8.
Point Of Law is the improver. His form reads 2, 1, 4, 1, he gets in with 121.2kg, and Ethan Brown rides for C Maher. Brown and Maher have won one and placed twice from three Geelong runs together. The catch is barrier 18, the widest draw in the race, over 2625m.
The rest are harder to like. Vegas Jack has won one of three here but has only one placing from three runs this spell. Wootton Verni has not placed in four runs in the last 90 days, despite Craig Williams on top. Litzdeel has placed in two of four and is worth a spot in the exotics.
No market was open for the Cup at the time of writing. The Euphrates is our pick to win, with Point Of Law as the main threat if he can find cover from the outside gate. In the quaddie, take both.
Race 8: Scaada Environmental Dual Choice Plate (Bm84), 4:45PM, 1312m
This is the hardest race on the card to have a strong view on. Most of the field has little recent form we can measure. Celsius Star placed second on his only run in the last 90 days, and Sam Kennedy has a win and three placings from five Geelong rides. Everain, from the Freedman stable that has won five of 25 here, comes in with form of 4-1315.
Keep Your Cool ran fourth on his one run this spell for C Maher. If forced, Celsius Star on the strength of that recent second, but this is a race to go wide in the quaddie and keep any win bet small.
Race 9: Sporting Globe Mcc Series Heat 6 (Bm78), 5:20PM, 1640m
Bella Verona finishes the day as the most convincing horse we can find outside the opener. This one has won both runs in the last 90 days, won on her only Geelong start, and her form line of 1, 2, 3, 1, 1 says she keeps finding a way. Patrick Moloney rides for M M Laurie at 123.4kg from barrier 14.
The wide draw is the risk. Aka Daka has placed in all five of his runs this spell, with one win, and drops to 119kg with Declan Bates. Charming Deel, a winner at one of two Geelong starts, is the other danger. No prices were available when this was written. Bella Verona to win, and the final leg of the quaddie with Aka Daka as the cover.
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Where the money goes
NAP: Aurora Belle (Race 3, 1:50PM). Three runs, three wins, and the jockey who has won three of eight at Geelong is on board. Short at $1.95 with Ladbrokes, but the shortest price on the day is there for a reason.
Value: Fiorowngood (Race 1, 12:40PM), $8.50 with Bet Right. Three straight wins and five placings from six this spell. The market has not caught up with the streak.
Banker: Bella Verona (Race 9, 5:20PM). Two from two in the last 90 days and a winner on its only Geelong run. The anchor for the last leg of the quaddie.
Each-way: Immortal Triumph (Race 2, 1:15PM), $11 with Unibet. Won both Geelong starts and two of four this spell. Each-way at double figures is the right way to play a big sprint field.
Course angle: Craig Williams. Five wins from 12 Geelong rides, and he is on Icy You in the Classic for a stable that places with ten of 14 here.
If Point Of Law can win the Cup from barrier 18, C Maher’s Geelong numbers will start to look like the best angle on the course.
Geelong racing tips FAQ
What time does racing start at Geelong today?
Race 1, the Batesford Hotel Benchmark 70 over 2625m, jumps at 12:40PM. The last of the nine races, the Sporting Globe MCC Series Heat 6, is at 5:20PM, and the Ladbrokes Geelong Cup is at 4:10PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Geelong?
Craig Williams has won five of his 12 Geelong rides, and Ethan Brown has won three of eight. C Maher has saddled ten Geelong winners from 62 runners, and Busuttin and Young place with ten of their 14 runners at the track.
What are the best bets at Geelong today?
Aurora Belle in Race 3 is our best bet after winning all three starts. Bella Verona in Race 9 is the banker, Fiorowngood in Race 1 is the value at $8.50, and Immortal Triumph in Race 2 is the each-way play.
Where can I find the best odds for Geelong races?
Compare the bookmakers in our table above. At the time of writing, Bet Right had the best price on Fiorowngood at $8.50, Unibet had Immortal Triumph at $11, and Ladbrokes had Aurora Belle at $1.95. Races 6 to 9 were not yet priced.