Overview
Ring Of Fire is the bet of the day. He has placed in all four of his runs in the last 90 days, winning one, and Nick Heywood rides for Dryden and Snowden, a pairing that has won two and placed in four of its six Canberra rides together. Over 2000m in a Class 1 that the market sees as a two horse race, the reliable profile is the one to be with.
Three selections from two meetings: two from the Canberra day card and one from Launceston at night. Prices were up for the two Canberra horses when this was written; the Launceston market had not opened yet, so the quaddie horse has no price.
The best bet
Ring Of Fire, Canberra Race 3, 2:32, 3.10 with Neds.
Four runs in the last three months, four placings, one of them a win. He also placed at his only Canberra start, so the track holds no mystery. Heywood and the Dryden and Snowden stable have a strong local record together, and their latest Canberra win came on 9 October.
The danger is Lord Wootton, a lightly raced three year old from Neasham and Archibald who gets in at 55kg with Tom Sherry aboard. He is the horse with upside, and the market has the pair close together. Ring Of Fire carries joint top weight of 59kg, the only knock against him. Win bet.
The value bet
Showtime Maggie, Canberra Race 1, 1:22, 3.70 with Unibet.
She is the only horse in the opener that has proven she can win at Canberra, with two wins from five starts there. That is a real local record for a Benchmark 50 mare, and her last 90 days show a win and three placings from five runs, so it is current form as well as course form. Glenn Cahill rides from barrier 5, which should let her hold a spot without being caught wide.
The Glen is the one to beat her. He keeps finishing in the first five and gets in a kilo lighter. If he puts a clean run together he has room to improve past her, but at 3.70 the mare’s course record is being undersold.
The quaddie angle
Eaglefurther, Launceston Race 8, 9:38.
Three wins from his last four starts, a placing in the other, and two from two at Launceston. Kirra-Lee Lane keeps the ride for G J Stevenson, and the pair have combined 18 times at the track for seven wins. In a five horse field he is the one runner in form, which is exactly what you want in the last leg of a quaddie.
The 59.5kg is the worry: it is at least a kilo more than anything else in the race over 1620m. Barrier 3 in a small field helps Lane ride him where she likes. Kireina Marubrah, placed twice in five recent runs, is the danger. Use Eaglefurther as the single in the last leg of the Launceston quaddie, which runs from Race 5.
How these were picked
All three come from the full previews for Ballarat, Canberra, Cranbourne, Gawler, Launceston, Mackay, Scone and the Sunshine Coast. Keikoku, the Canberra NAP with seven placings from seven starts at the track, had as strong a case as Ring Of Fire, but his market was not open, so the priced Canberra banker gets the nod. The other meetings’ top picks, including Antalian at Ballarat, Mainstay at Scone, Kayla Kruzen at Gawler, Cashout at Cranbourne, Next Stop Jupiter at Mackay and Amelioration at the Sunshine Coast, all run in races that had no prices up when this was written. Perfect Dismount at Ballarat was the other priced value option, but a maiden with a rising run of form is a bigger leap of faith than a proven course winner.