Overview
Fair Master has two wins and four placings from his five starts in the last 90 days, and the Race 4 staying test over 2110m looks built for a horse in that kind of rhythm. He is the reason to stick around for the back half of a Wednesday card where the midweek Sydney regulars have sent proper teams.
Seven races, a Good track and a card that starts with two maidens and finishes with four benchmark races. Chris Waller has runners in every race, Tim Clark and the Waterhouse and Bott stable have been the strongest combination here, and Rachel King is hitting the frame more than half the time at this track. These Warwick Farm racing tips go race by race, with live prices where the bookmakers have opened markets. When this was written only the first two races had been priced.
Reading the Warwick Farm card
Course form is patchy across today’s fields. Only four runners have been here three or more times, so most of the work falls on recent form and connections rather than track records.
| Horse | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryant | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20.0 | 40.0 |
| Silencio Porfavor | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 66.7 |
| Hallowed Halls | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 33.3 |
| Burn The Sky | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
The riders are where the volume is. Sorted by place rate, for jockeys with at least 20 rides here:
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel King | 39 | 8 | 21 | 20.5 | 53.9 |
| N Rawiller | 43 | 7 | 21 | 16.3 | 48.8 |
| Tim Clark | 68 | 13 | 28 | 19.1 | 41.2 |
| Tommy Berry | 77 | 12 | 31 | 15.6 | 40.3 |
| Mollie Fitzgerald | 28 | 4 | 11 | 14.3 | 39.3 |
| J B McDonald | 51 | 9 | 20 | 17.7 | 39.2 |
| K McEvoy | 35 | 1 | 13 | 2.9 | 37.1 |
| Braith Nock | 22 | 3 | 8 | 13.6 | 36.4 |
And the trainers with at least 15 runners at the track:
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G Waterhouse & A Bott | 80 | 20 | 47 | 25.0 | 58.8 |
| John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | 18 | 4 | 10 | 22.2 | 55.6 |
| Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald | 54 | 7 | 26 | 13.0 | 48.2 |
| Matthew Smith | 46 | 9 | 22 | 19.6 | 47.8 |
| Nathan Doyle | 18 | 4 | 8 | 22.2 | 44.4 |
| Peter Snowden | 39 | 7 | 16 | 18.0 | 41.0 |
| C J Waller | 175 | 13 | 62 | 7.4 | 35.4 |
Two things jump out. Waller brings the numbers, 175 runners here, but he wins with only about one in fourteen of them, so his runners need more than the name to be backed. Waterhouse and Bott win with a quarter of theirs, and when Tim Clark rides for them here the record is 11 wins from 34 rides, with 21 placings. Of the jockeys, Rachel King hits the frame more than half the time at Warwick Farm.
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Warwick Farm race-by-race
Race 1: Tropicus @ Vinery Stud Mdn Hcp, 2:20PM, 1400m
The market has Quarterback at $2.00 with Ladbrokes, which is a lot of faith in a maiden who has run 3 and 7 at his two starts in the last three months and carries the 59kg topweight. James McDonald and Chris Waller give him the glamour, but the Waller and McDonald pairing here is six wins from 35, which is good without being a lock.
Shahaameh is the one I want. She placed at her only Warwick Farm start, has finished in the first three in two of her three runs in the last 90 days, and draws barrier 1 for Dylan Gibbons and Richard and Will Freedman. At $5.50 with Ladbrokes, that is a fair price for a filly who keeps running into the money and now gets the inside run.
Keep an eye on Machrihanish, a stablemate from the Freedman yard. He has placed at all four starts in the last 90 days and is out to $151 with Neds. That price makes no sense against that record, even allowing for a horse who keeps finding one better.
Win bet on Shahaameh, with a small each-way saver on Machrihanish.
Race 2: Racing And Sports Mdn Plate, 2:55PM, 1200m
Does a well-bred Waller debutante beat horses who have already shown they can run a place? That is the question here, and Rishaka at $4.00 with Unibet says the market thinks yes. She has no form at all, and McDonald riding is the only clue.
Water City has run third at both his starts, and that kind of reliability matters in a maiden this weak. Regan Bayliss rides for Ciaron Maher from barrier 9, which is the catch: he will need to find cover from out there. At $5.50 with Unibet he is the pick.
Oakfield Virginia is the danger. She ran second last start for Kris Lees and Jason Collett, and $7.00 with Ladbrokes is a decent price for a filly whose form line reads 3 then 2.
Water City to win, Oakfield Virginia in the exacta.
Race 3: Kia Ora Bloodlines To Headlines (Bm68), 3:30PM, 1200m
Three of these won last time out: Priory Park, Regal and Baylie’s Folly. Then there is Kosei Top, who won his only start for Waller. Something has to give.
Priory Park gets my vote. He won his only run in the last 90 days, McDonald stays aboard for Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald, and barrier 2 lets him take the straightest route. The 59.5kg topweight is the knock, but this is a Benchmark 68 and he is the class runner.
Kosei Top is the danger, with Jason Collett riding for Waller and an unbeaten record that only stretches to one start. He could be anything, which is the problem when you are trying to price him. Tokoriki has no rider listed. No market yet. Priory Park, win.
Race 4: Tab (Bm72), 4:05PM, 2110m
Fair Master is the horse of the day: two wins and four placings from five starts in the last 90 days. Jason Collett rides for Doug Gorrel, the gate is 2, and a horse in that kind of form is the one they all have to run down.
Collett has not been firing here, three wins from 53 rides, so this is not a jockey play. It is a form play. This is a horse that keeps putting itself in the finish, and from barrier 2 he should be on the speed or one off it with the run of the race.
The danger is Rye Manhattan. He has only two runs in the last three months, but he won one and placed in the other, and drops to 54kg. John O’Shea and Tom Charlton win with more than a fifth of their runners here. Blenheim Girl won her only start at the track and has placed in three of four in the last 90 days for Tommy Berry and Waller, so she is the each-way type in the trifecta.
My Cartouche is scratched. No prices yet. Fair Master is the NAP: win bet, and the anchor in the quaddie.
Race 5: Ranvet (Bm72), 4:40PM, 1300m
Tim Clark and the Waterhouse and Bott stable have won 11 of their 34 races together here, and they team up on Big Tiger. His last three starts before this break read 3, 1, 2, so he resumes on good terms. That partnership record is the best repeatable edge on the card.
Senjutsu is the obvious danger. He won his only run in the last 90 days for Bjorn Baker and Collett, and a last-start winner in a Benchmark 72 deserves respect.
Silencio Porfavor is the place play. She has two placings from three runs at Warwick Farm and three placings from four starts in the last 90 days, and Tommy Berry rides for Matthew Smith. Bryant has five runs here for a win and two places, and ran second last start. Duvana won her only start at the track but has to lump 61kg.
Big Tiger to win, Silencio Porfavor each-way.
Race 6: Asahi Super Dry (Bm72), 5:15PM, 1600m
Twelve runners at a mile and plenty of them have form that fits, so this is about finding the profile that suits the shape. Kirkuk is it for me. He won his last start, drops to 55kg from barrier 4, and J and G Lee have two winners and three placegetters from four runners at the track. That is a small sample, but it is a pointed one.
Bondi Blossom is the main danger. She also won last time out, and Rachel King rides for Brad Widdup; the pair have two placings from three rides together here. Sharp Shock is the consistent type, one win and three placings from five starts in the last 90 days, but barrier 11 is a tough draw.
Naina has placed in three of five recent runs for McDonald and Waller without winning, which is how she keeps getting beaten. Chilli Margs runs here rather than in the last.
Kirkuk, win and place.
Race 7: Drinkwise Mile (Bm64), 5:50PM, 1600m
Alabama Charm grinds, Made In Italy finishes. Both are in form and both are live, and the draw is what separates them.
Alabama Charm has placed at all four starts in the last 90 days, winning one, and her average finishing position over that stretch is 1.5. That is as reliable as anything on the card. Jean Van Overmeire rides for G D Hickman from barrier 4 at 57kg. Van Overmeire has only three rides here, but the horse does the work.
Made In Italy won last start and has a win and three placings from four in the last 90 days for Tim Clark and Matthew Smith. Barrier 12 is the problem: he will need luck from out there. Aladdin’s Girl, placed at her only run here and in all three recent starts, and Blue Eyed Brigid, a last-start winner with Rachel King aboard, round out the main contenders.
Chilli Margs, Flaming Moon and Ulysses Blue are scratched. Alabama Charm is the banker for multis. Win bet, with Made In Italy the exacta partner.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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Where the money goes
NAP: Fair Master (Race 4, 4:05PM). Two wins from five starts in the last 90 days, an inside gate over a staying trip, and a race with no other horse in his kind of form.
Value: Shahaameh (Race 1, 2:20PM). $5.50 with Ladbrokes for a filly who keeps placing and now draws barrier 1, against a favourite at $2.00 who has not won.
Banker: Alabama Charm (Race 7, 5:50PM). In the first three at all four starts in the last 90 days; she is the leg you build a multi around.
Each-way: Silencio Porfavor (Race 5, 4:40PM). Places at two of three course starts and three of four in the last 90 days, and she will be in the finish again.
Course angle: Tim Clark riding for G Waterhouse and A Bott at Warwick Farm. Eleven wins from 34 rides, and they have Big Tiger in Race 5.
The quaddie runs from Race 4 to Race 7: Fair Master on his own in the first leg, Big Tiger and Senjutsu in the second, Kirkuk and Bondi Blossom in the third, then Alabama Charm and Made In Italy to finish.
If Machrihanish keeps placing at triple-figure odds, someone will eventually catch him winning one at those prices.
Warwick Farm racing FAQ
What time does racing start at Warwick Farm today?
The first race, the Tropicus @ Vinery Stud Maiden Handicap over 1400m, jumps at 2:20PM. The last, the Drinkwise Mile, is at 5:50PM.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Warwick Farm?
Rachel King places with 21 of her 39 rides here, and Tim Clark has 13 wins from 68. Among the trainers, G Waterhouse and A Bott have 20 wins from 80 runners at the track, and Chris Waller brings the most runners, 175 starters for 13 wins.
What are the best bets at Warwick Farm today?
Fair Master in Race 4 is the NAP, Shahaameh in Race 1 is the value at $5.50, Alabama Charm in Race 7 is the banker and Silencio Porfavor in Race 5 is the each-way pick.
Where can I find the best Warwick Farm odds?
Check the bookmaker table above and each race’s racecard. When this was written, Ladbrokes had Quarterback at $2.00 and Shahaameh at $5.50 in Race 1, and Unibet had Rishaka at $4.00 in Race 2. Races 3 to 7 had not been priced.
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