Black Caviar Lightning Tips & Preview 2023

Looking for Black Caviar Lightning tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2023 Black Caviar Lightning at Flemington.

BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING BETTING SNAPSHOT

It is champion galloper, Nature Strip, that heads the market with Palmerbet at the $2.05 quote, while the Maher/Eustace trio of Coolangatta ($8.50), Marabi ($10) and Bella Nipotina ($12) are next. 

I Wish I Win and the Champions Sprint (1200m) winner, Roch ‘N’ Horse are also at $12, just ahead of Buenos Noches at $13. Baller ($16), September Run ($26), Millane ($51) and Fire ($61) round out the 11-horse field. 

BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING FORM ANALYSIS

With the exception of Fire, the entire field will be resuming for their first hit-out of 2023. Nature Strip was 4th in this race in 2020, a winner in 2021, and runner-up behind Home Affairs in 2022. He was fresh on each of those occasions. 

The Chris Waller-trained galloper went 13.8 lengths faster than standard in the race last year and 14.3 lengths faster when winning in 2021. His personal best came later that preparation when going 19.8 lengths faster than standard when runner-up behind Eduardo in the Concorde Stakes (1000m). 

In the spring of 2022 he didn’t quite reach those heights, winning over the 1100m after a shorter break than normal following his success at Royal Ascot. But he is the proven galloper and clearly deserves favouritism. 

Marabi resumes off a long break and I am really looking forward to see how she fares over the 1000m. The lightly raced six-year-old from the Maher/Eustace camp has won seven of eight. Those have come over the 1100m-1200m distance range and she scorched in the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) last year, going 17 lengths faster than standard benchmark. 

Bella Nipotina is yet to finish in front of Nature Strip in the two times that they have met but was impressive at her last campaign, going 12.7 lengths faster than standard to win over the 1000m when fresh before destroying her rivals later on in the Manikato Stakes (1200m). She was 5th in the Oakleigh Plate last year. 

Coolangatta is one of three horses aged three and is the sole filly in the race. She was 3rd at Moonee Valley when first up last time before defeating Bella Nipotina in the Group 1 Moir Stakes (1000m). Interesting to see if she has progressed over the break. 

Millane and Buenos Noches are the other three-year-olds and might be a bit outclassed but worth noting that the latter has some good Flemington form and just missed behind Giga Kick in the Danehill Stakes (1100m) last spring before the winner out of that defeated Nature Strip in the Everest (1200m). 

Roch’N’Horse is another that likes Flemington and edged out Nature Strip in the Champions Sprint over the 1200m last spring. She claimed the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) in an upset last year and was solid enough on a Heavy track at Moonee Valley when fresh last time, finishing 4th behind Bella Nipotina. Her best form is on Good tracks and she is likely to get that on Saturday.

I Wish I Win is an interesting contender and claimed the $10 million Golden Eagle (1500m) in the spring. 1000m might be a slight query but he will relish what should be a solid tempo up front and produced excellent figures in every start last spring.

September Run is capable of running a race and filled the exacta behind Nature Strip in the Lightning in 2021. Baller is another that likes Flemington and was 3rd at a big price in the Champions Sprint last spring. He comes in with a winning trial. Fire meets these with a fitness advantage but is hard to make a case for, stepping up from a BenchMark 78.

BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING TIPS AND BEST BETS

Hard to tip against Nature Strip and he should definitely be in the finish but I am willing to work around him at the price. I Wish I Win might be one worth rolling the dice on and has done little wrong since coming over from New Zealand. Trained by Black Caviar’s Peter Moody, he has been set for the shorter trips this time around. The 1000m might be a fraction short but he was solid in a recent trial around Giga Kick and Coolangatta, while there should be sufficient speed in this for him to launch at them late with Marabi, Nature Strip and Coolangatta likely to enforce a solid tempo.