New Zealand Preview & Best Bets – 17/02/2024

New Zealand Tips for Saturday, February 17

Our form expert provides New Zealand tips for Saturday’s horse racing at Ascot Park & Ellerslie Racecourses and gives his best bets.

ASCOT PARK

BEST BET 🏆

Race 6:  No.4  MADAM DUBAI

Team Anderton saddle-up MADAM DUBAI here who is in career-best form and looks primed for another victory today. Last start, the Pride Of Dubai mare made it win number three this preparation when she hung on to win a BM75 Hcp over 1200m at Riccarton. She flew across the turf that day, running the 1200m in a blistering 1:07.2 which is a winning time in most events over the trip. She meets similar company today but carries 2kgs more and welcomes back Kylie Williams who has steered her to victory twice previously from her three rides to date. She maps to settle mid-field from gate seven and a clear run to the line should see her hard to hold out today.

NEXT BEST 🥈

Race 9:  No.6  ADIKTIV PASSION

The Leda Beck-trained ADIKTIV PASSION is high-flying this time in and has conditions to suit here for her to keep up the good work. Last start, the Ghibellines mare made it a hat-trick of podium finishes when she grabbed third prize in a BM75 Hcp over 1335m at Gore. Corey Campbell was aboard for the second time that day and steers the ship again in this contest. She adores the sting out of the ground boasting a win and five minor placings in the going so the forecast Soft 5 here looks ideal for her today. She has also secured the gun-run with gate one as her alley. At her peak after three runs back, she looks in the mix for another win here.

BEST VALUE 💰 

Race 8:  No.2  BEAU BRUMMELL

This year’s Guineas is an open affair with almost half the field under double figures as we run with the Walker & Bergerson-trained BEAU BRUMMELL to take home the trophy today. Last start, the Embellish gelding continued to improve and at his third race-start, clobbered his rivals in a 1600m Maiden, taking it out by three lengths on the line. He did his best work late, taking over inside the final 200m and showing a solid turn-of-foot, sprinted away for the easiest of wins. He should be peaking today with those three runs behind him now and maps to settle near mid-field from gate nine. Already a big winner over the mile trip, a trouble-free run here should see him there at the finish today.

ELLERSLIE

BEST BET 🏆

Race 6:  No.15  ORCHESTRAL 

The James & Wellwood Team saddle-up ORCHESTRAL here who is in top-shelf form and looks set to take home the Guineas trophy today. Last start, the Savabeel filly continued on her winning way when she destroyed her rivals in the Listed Karaka Millions, here over the mile. James McDonald made the trip across the Tasman for the ride and he rode the filly a treat. Settling mid-field (on the fence), J.Mac sat patiently waiting for the moment which came soon after straightening. He asked the three-year-old for a finishing burst and she obliged, cruising to victory, putting 3.5 lengths on them over the line. McDonald is back in Sydney today which sees Craig Grylls returning for his third ride on the filly who draws ideally in gate six and maps to settle mid-field again with cover. A trouble-free run here should see her winning again.

NEXT BEST 🥈

Race 2:  No.5  POUR THE WINE

Team Williams saddle-up POUR THE WINE here who is unbeaten this time in and looks a solid chance of bringing up the hat-trick today. Last start, the Telperion mare came from second-last on the turn to take the honours in a BM75 over 1200m at Pukekohe when second-up off a 30-week absence. She steps up to Open company again where she has placed twice previously as Warren Kennedy sticks with her for this assignment, having ridden her to victory twice previously. She is drawn out again but should maps to settle back in the field as she did last start. The four-year-old has a powerful finish and with a clear run to the line today, she can get the job done.

BEST VALUE 💰 

Race 5:  No.5  MERCHANT QUEEN 

The Stephen Marsh-trained MERCHANT QUEEN is off to a flying start winning three of her four races to date and looks well placed here to go on with it. Last start, the Merchant Navy filly was looking at four-straight wins when she locked horns with the very smart Crocetti (who had won six of his seven starts to date). Leading from the outset, she set a solid pace and was travelling well when the $1.50 favourite collared her inside the final 100m and was just too good on the day. The filly was gallant in defeat, finishing a length ahead of the rest in the event. Back to Listed company today and no Crocetti puts her back in the firing line and after three starts back, she should be at her peak today and prove hard to run down.